Kamala Harris’ Israel smear is a gamble that could cost her an all-important swing state

Vice President Kamala Harris might have just sealed her fate in Pennsylvania — just not in the way she intended.  

After publicly agreeing with a heckler accusing Israel of genocide, the vice president signaled a desperate attempt to placate Arab American voters in a state where discontent with Democrats’ support of Israel has been growing and is likely irreversible. And in doing so, Harris continued to alienate another key demographic: Jewish voters. And it’s in Pennsylvania where she may pay the ultimate price. 

At a campaign event in Wisconsin, a heckler yelled at Harris about Israel’s alleged war crimes, and Harris responded by saying, "What he's talking about, it's real." The remark didn’t come off as an off-the-cuff response, but an affirmation of a false narrative designed to appease unhappy Arab American voters.  

TRADITIONALLY DEM LEADERS IN KEY MICHIGAN VOTING BLOC DITCH HARRIS, ENDORSE TRUMP

Her campaign only walked the statement back after her calculated response gained too much attention. But it wasn’t before it became the latest in a series of signals that the Democratic Party, once seen as a strong ally of Israel, is shifting under the weight of progressive voices who reject the Jewish state. 

Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, sits with former Rep. Liz Cheney for a town hall with Maria Shriver at the Royal Oak Music Theatre on October 21, 2024, in Royal Oak, Michigan, United States. (Photo by Sarah Rice/Getty Images)

Harris, clearly aware that Michigan’s Arab American community has been growing increasingly frustrated with the Biden administration’s stance on Israel, is trying to walk a political tightrope. Michigan has one of the largest Arab American populations in the country, and in a race that could be won by a very small percentage of votes, this voting bloc yields power. 

But it’s impossible to pacify this base without accusing Israel of genocide and Harris is already behind in Michigan. Former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum at the right time, making Harris’ chances of winning Michigan exceedingly slim — even with her appeasement strategy. 

If placating Arab voters in Michigan is unlikely to land, what’s the cost? It’s Jewish voters in Pennsylvania and they could be a deciding factor. Harris is already struggling in Pennsylvania, a state more crucial than Michigan if she hopes to take the White House. Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, especially in the suburban regions around Philadelphia, have traditionally been a strong Democratic bloc. But there are signs of movement away from the party, and Harris’s recent comments may accelerate that shift. 

"The family that is my generation and older generations, I don’t think anybody is voting for Harris, and we’ve never voted Republican, ever," 49-year-old Pittsburgh resident Rona Kaufman told the AP. "My sister has a Trump sign outside her house, and that is a huge shift." 

Enter Dave McCormick. The Republican candidate running for Senate in Pennsylvania has been strategically courting Jewish voters. He’s tapped into the growing discontent with the Democratic Party’s shifting stance on Israel, positioning himself as a staunch defender of the U.S.-Israel alliance. McCormick has made repeated visits to synagogues, hosted events specifically for the Jewish community, and is clearly hoping to capitalize on the kind of rhetoric Harris just embraced and amplified. 

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It’s not just McCormick, either. Across the country, Republicans have been making inroads with Jewish voters who rightly feel abandoned by a Democratic Party that seems willing to bend further and further toward anti-Israel progressivism. And it doesn’t take much to tip the scales.  

In tight races like the ones expected in Pennsylvania and Michigan, even a small shift in voter demographics can make a significant difference, especially when you see other demographics traditionally loyal to Democrats (Latinos and Black men) drifting to Trump.  

It didn’t help that Harris passed on a stronger vice-presidential choice of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro for a Minnesota knucklehead. If Jewish voters who traditionally support Democrats move even slightly toward the GOP — let’s say 5% — that could be enough to swing key counties and potentially the state. 

But it’s impossible to pacify this base without accusing Israel of genocide and Harris is already behind in Michigan. Former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum at the right time, making Harris’ chances of winning Michigan exceedingly slim — even with her appeasement strategy. 

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. A recent Pew Research survey showed that while Jewish voters still overwhelmingly support Democrats, their support for Republicans has been steadily growing, with more Jews viewing Trump as pro-Israel than they do the Democratic Party.  

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A Siena College poll in September even found Trump with a 10-point lead over Harris with Jewish voters. While that’s since shifted to Harris, it’s unclear if that’s due to a sampling anomaly, and it signals there’s clearly some movement toward Trump, especially with a new Manhattan Institute poll showing Jewish support for a Democrat presidential nominee is the lowest it's been since the Ronald Reagan era. 

The electoral map is unforgiving, and Pennsylvania is a make-or-break state for Harris where every percentage point counts. If Jewish voters decide to punish the Democrats for their lack of support for Israel and embrace of antisemitic voices within their party, it could be the nail in the coffin for Harris’s presidential ambitions.  

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