Key Inflation Gauge Rises Slightly in November, Offering Mixed Signals for the Fed

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation ticked up less than expected in November, offering a glimmer of relief amid persistent price pressures that have cast doubt on the central bank’s recent interest rate cuts.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose just 0.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. That figure came in below economists’ projections of a 0.2 percent increase, suggesting a potential pause in what had been a gradual upward trajectory.

Despite the monthly slowdown, the year-over-year inflation rate edged higher, climbing to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent in October. The increase moves inflation further from the Fed’s two percent target, underscoring the central bank’s challenge as it navigates a complex economic landscape.

The projections of Fed officials that were released on Wednesday indicated that officials think inflation will come in at 2.4 percent for the full year of 2024 and then tick up to 2.5 percent for 2025. As a result, officials now expect to cut interest rates just two times more next year, down from an earlier projection of four cuts.

The so-called core PCE index, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent last month. Compared with 12 months ago, this measure is up 2.8 percent. The 12 month measure stopped declining in May, suggesting that inflation had become entrenched above the Fed’s target. The core PCE index is widely regarded by Fed officials as a key indicator of future inflation trends.

The inflation report came just two days after the Fed concluded its final policy meeting of the year, where officials announced another interest rate cut despite stalled progress on inflation and a resilient labor market.

Fed officials are becoming cautious about inflation’s trajectory, a shift away from the confidence displayed over the summer that inflation would continue to decline even if interest rates declined. The shift has unsettled markets. Stocks experienced their steepest single-day decline in months after the Fed’s announcement, and premarket trading on Friday suggested continued unease, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 showing modest declines.

Investors, meanwhile, do not anticipate further rate cuts until at least the spring, leaving the Fed’s strategy under intense scrutiny as it charts a course through an economic recovery fraught with uncertainty.