Late-Goal Lunacy and Kylian Mbappé’s Many Offsides

By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-10-29 21:22:15 | Updated at 2024-11-05 23:55:45 1 week ago

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at late Premier League goals, Kylian Mbappé’s offside tendencies, and the best at comeback wins.

It isn’t over until it’s over.

Half of the Premier League know that all too well after Matchday 9, which saw late goals aplenty. In fact, there was statistically more late drama at the weekend than there ever has been in the competition.

It wouldn’t be SVQ if we didn’t stick our nose into that interesting statistic a bit more, so that’s exactly what we’ll do in this week’s edition.

We’ll also look at a Saturday to forget for Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid, who saw their efforts to equal Barcelona’s unbeaten La Liga record spectacularly ended by those very same rivals in another fascinating Clásico.

We covered comeback wins in last week’s SVQ, and we’ll take a brief glance back to that topic thanks to this week’s Ask Opta query, while our quiz will once again have you leaning back in your chair agonisingly holding your head and shouting “Oh man, what’s his name?!”

It’s the most fun you can have reading a newsletter!

If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.

STAT – Late-Goal Lunacy

Late goals in Premier League games don’t come as much of a surprise anymore.

Thanks to extended stoppage time, an increase in the number of subs allowed and the general increase in goals being scored in recent years, it’s almost more of a surprise when we’re not treated to another net-nestling strike in the closing stages of a game.

However, it’s not just totals, but percentages that are going up in terms of late goals.

Including this season, the three Premier League seasons for highest percentage of goals scored in the 90th minute or later on record (since 2006-07) have been in the last four years.

The 2021-22 Premier League season saw 6.7% of goals scored arrive in that late stage (72 of 1,071) while last season broke that record with 8.3% of goals scored at 90+ minutes (103 of 1,246).

After 90 games this season, there have been 261 goals scored in the Premier League, with 21 of those being 90+ minute goals (8.0%).

Premier League stoppage-time goals by season

Matchday 9 took things to another level, though. Not necessarily in terms of total goals, but more regarding what they meant to the games in which they were scored.

Saturday saw Brentford score a 96th-minute winner in their 4-3 victory against Ipswich, Evanilson head in a 96th-minute equaliser for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, Wolves salvage a 2-2 draw at Brighton with a 93rd-minute leveller, and Beto nod home an equaliser for Everton against Fulham in the 94th minute.

Sunday added another to the list as Jarrod Bowen’s penalty in the 92nd minute handed West Ham a 2-1 win over Manchester United, leading to manager Erik ten Hag being relieved of his duties by the Old Trafford club on Monday.

That made it five games from MD 9 in which goals were scored after the 90th minute that were either equalisers or winners – the most result-altering late goals ever on a single matchday in Premier League history.

An incredible HALF of games saw the outcome change in second-half stoppage time, hammering home the point that leaving a game early really is a risk for fans in the modern day.

VIZ – Mbappé’s Often Offside

Kylian Mbappe offside pass locations 24-25

It was written in the stars. Real Madrid had gone 42 La Liga games unbeaten, one away from equalling Barcelona’s record of 43. Their 43rd game of that run? At home to Barcelona.

What followed was quite the blow as far as Carlo Ancelotti’s men were concerned, not only being beaten by their great rivals, but being soundly defeated on their own turf.

Barça romped to a 4-0 victory at the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday, with Robert Lewandowski scoring twice before Lamine Yamal and Raphinha completed the humiliation for the European champions.

It was also Kylian Mbappé’s first Clásico since arriving in Madrid in the summer, and it wasn’t an ideal introduction to the iconic clash.

Not only did he fail to score (apart from his two disallowed goals), but the story of Mbappé’s game was in how many times he was thwarted by Barça’s phenomenally efficient and effective offside trap.

Mbappé was given offside on a remarkable eight occasions on Saturday. There have only been 10 instances of a player being caught offside more often in a game in Europe’s top five leagues since records began (2003-04).

The most often a player has been offside in a single game is a three-way tie, with Kevin Phillips (for Southampton vs Wolves in April 2004), Steven Savidan (for Valenciennes vs Sochaux in December 2006) and Sergio Pellissier (for Chievo vs Roma in December 2010) all being pulled up on 10 occasions.

It took Mbappé to 17 offsides in the league already this season, the most of any player in Europe’s top five leagues, ahead of Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Fiorentina’s Moise Kean (both 16), albeit the Real Madrid star has played a game more than the other two.

This week’s viz shows the start points of the passes from which Mbappé has been caught offside this season in La Liga, with all but three coming inside the opposition half, showing that it’s not always because of high defensive lines camped up by the halfway line, as it often was against Barcelona.

The most times any player has been caught offside in a season in one of Europe’s top five leagues was French forward Savidan, who racked up an astonishing 108 offsides in 2006-07 with Valenciennes in Ligue 1.

After that it has been Italian strikers who have accumulated the most, and no, that doesn’t include a man who, legend has it, was born offside, Fillipo Inzaghi.

Alberto Gilardino (94 in 2008-09), Vincenzo Montella (91 in 2004-05), Luca Toni (91 in 2005-06) and Antonio Di Natale (90 in 2011-12) have been primary reasons for Serie A’s assistant referees having particularly active flag-raising arms.

Since 2003-04, Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been caught offside the most times across Europe’s top five leagues, with 689 in 467 games. That’s ahead of Gilardino (631 in 514 games), Di Natale (561 in 445 games) and Cristiano Ronaldo (551 in 626 games).

You would think with Mbappé’s pace he doesn’t need to be offside, surely if he gives defenders a yard or two head-start he’ll still beat most to the ball, but then who are we to tell a World Cup winner how to play football?

He still has eight goals in 14 games for Real Madrid and will surely score a lot more over the next few years… perhaps he should just take a look across the line every now and then.

We’re doing it again! Sorry Kylian.

QUIZ – Unmellow Yellows, Jackson’s Record, and Salah’s Arsenal Aim

It’s time to test your Premier League memory banks. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. There were seven yellow cards shown in the first half between Aston Villa and Bournemouth; no Premier League game has ever seen more in the first 45 minutes. One other game this season has seen as many, though. Which derby encounter was it?

2. Ipswich Town’s Harry Clarke almost became the second player in Premier League history to score an own goal, concede a penalty and be sent off in the same match, though Brentford’s Yoane Wissa was latterly awarded the goal that had initially been credited to Clarke. Which Southampton defender is therefore still the only player to have completed that particular unwanted treble, doing so against Manchester United in February 2021?

3. On his 44th appearance, Nicolas Jackson became the fifth-quickest player to score 20 Premier League goals for Chelsea, and the third quickest to 20 non-penalty PL goals. Who are the only two players to reach the non-penalty landmark quicker in the competition for the club?

4. Jarrod Bowen (33 goals) is now West Ham’s top scorer in Premier League home games, overtaking which of his teammates for the record?

5. Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored 11 goals in 15 Premier League appearances against Arsenal. Who are the only two players to have netted more often against the Gunners in the competition?

Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Omar Butler, who asks: “Which team in the Premier League has the most comebacks? My data shows that Tottenham have the most. Am I right?”

Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to editors@theanalyst.com and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.

Answer:

You are correct, Omar.

In terms of games won from losing positions, Tottenham narrowly hold the lead with 111 in Premier League history. Manchester United are just one behind on 110, which of course includes their famous 5-3 win at Tottenham when they recovered from 3-0 down at half-time in the 2001-02 season.

Liverpool have come from behind to win 99 times in the competition, while Arsenal have done so 96 times and Chelsea 95.

When it comes to points gained from losing positions, the list is unsurprisingly similar. Spurs have also won the most points from a losing position in Premier League history, having recovered an impressive 440. That’s ahead of Man Utd (428), Liverpool (397), Arsenal (381) and Chelsea (367).

Our Opta data hubs have detailed team and player stats, predictions, expected league tables and much more. Click below to start your own data investigations.