By The Rio Times | Created at 2025-01-17 08:48:02 | Updated at 2025-01-31 07:07:22
1 week ago
Moody’s Ratings released a report on Thursday projecting a stable sovereign credit outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025. This forecast comes despite looming uncertainties surrounding upcoming changes in U.S. trade policies.
The rating agency anticipates that the region will face potentially disruptive changes in trade and immigration policies. Geopolitical dynamics and financial volatility are expected to intensify when Donald Trump begins his second term as president on January 20th.
Moody’s warns that Mexico and Central American economies may be more vulnerable to possible trade tariffs and immigration policy changes. However, fiscal consolidation efforts in 2025 are expected to stabilize public debt burdens across the rest of the region.
Most Latin American countries rated by Moody’s will grow in 2025 at rates similar to those of 2024. The median growth rate for the region is likely to be 3.0 percent in 2025, according to the report.
Economic performance is expected to converge towards pre-pandemic levels (2015-2019). This follows above-trend growth during the post-pandemic recovery period (2021-2023). Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay are among the economies that will outperform their pre-pandemic trend.
Latin America’s Stable Credit Outlook for 2025 Amid Global Shifts. (Photo Internet reproduction)Latin America’s Stable Credit Outlook for 2025 Amid Global Shifts
Mexico’s economy is projected to expand by about 1.3 percent, marking the second year of weak growth. The country faces increased internal and external risks that could affect its economy beyond 2025.
Moody’s believes some countries will benefit from favorable external conditions related to nearshoring and strong global demand for metals. This is particularly relevant in the context of the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The report emphasizes that investment dynamics are particularly sensitive to investor confidence. Implementing policies that boost domestic and foreign investment will be crucial for promoting sustained growth in the region.
