By Opta Analyst | Created at 2025-03-25 10:16:18 | Updated at 2025-03-28 12:26:29
3 days ago
With only a few weeks remaining of the season, we’ve decided it’s time to check in on the Opta supercomputer’s updated League One predictions and analyse some of the underlying data powering those projections.
This was billed as one of the strongest League One lineups in recent years heading into 2024-25, with giants such as Birmingham City, Huddersfield Town and Bolton Wanderers expected to fight it out for promotion.
England’s third tier has not disappointed, with Birmingham leading the way, followed by some expected names and some less expected ones competing for the top spots.
With teams having between eight and 10 left of the season, we thought it was time to ask the Opta supercomputer what it expects to happen between now and the final whistle in the last round of games in early May.
The Promotion Race
Relegation from the Championship was one of the darkest days in the history of Birmingham City Football Club. However, things are always darkest before the dawn and all that.
The club co-owned by NFL legend Tom Brady signalled their intention to bounce straight back by spending big in the summer, including the frankly eye-watering reported fee of £10 million paid for striker Jay Stansfield.
That investment has paid off, with the former Fulham striker hitting 16 goals in 27 league games this season, and the Blues are seemingly strolling to promotion under Chris Davies. They sit top of the League One table on 83 points from 36 games, 12 points ahead of third-place Wycombe Wanderers with a game in hand and are almost certain to be back in the Championship next season.
We say ‘almost certain’ because Birmingham finish in the top two places in all 10,000 simulations carried out by the Opta supercomputer. They still actually have to do the work to get there, but it would take an almighty collapse from here. They are also nine points ahead of Wrexham in second with two games in hand, and win the title in 99.9% of sims.
They are also on course to finish with 104 points according to the supercomputer, which would beat Wolves’ record in a League One season, which was 103 points in 2013-14.
The race for second and the other automatic promotion spot is far more intriguing. Wrexham took the advantage on Saturday with their 1-0 win over Stockport County taking them back up to second and three points ahead of Wycombe, albeit having played a game more. Phil Parkinson’s side finish in second and secure a third-successive promotion in 50.7% of the supercomputer’s sims, with Wycombe pipping them in 45.7%.
The Chairboys had their season somewhat rocked by losing manager Matt Bloomfield to Luton Town in January, with Mike Dodds replacing him. Since a run of eight wins in a row ended in November, Wycombe haven’t been able to win back-to-back league games.
The only other teams in with a chance of sneaking into the top two, thought very slight, are Charlton Athletic (2.5%), Stockport (1.0%), Huddersfield (0.3%) and Reading (0.04%).
Play-Off Push
The race for the play-offs is more open, with 11 different teams reaching them in at least one of the 10,000 simulations from the supercomputer.
With Wrexham having a 50.7% chance of automatic promotion, it’s not too surprising to see they therefore have a 49.3% chance of having to settle for the play-offs, while Wycombe have a 54.3% likelihood of needing to navigate the long way to the second tier.
Charlton’s impressive form under Nathan Jones, which has seen them win 10 of their last 14 games (D2 L2), has left them with a considerable 84.1% chance of reaching the play-offs. They’ll hope the surprise 3-0 loss at Peterborough United on Saturday was just a hiccup, though.
Stockport still have a 78.3% chance of a play-off spot despite their loss at Wrexham. Dave Challinor’s men have a favourable run-in too, though will want to have confirmed things by the final day when they travel to Wycombe.
Huddersfield have not had as smooth a time in League One as they’d have hoped, and recently sacked manager Michael Duff after a stretch of games that saw them lose seven of 11, though a 5-1 thrashing of Crawley Town last time out should provide hope for a strong finish. The Terriers have a 52.6% chance of making the play-offs.
Bolton also changed manager recently, with Steven Schumacher replacing Ian Evatt. They have work to do to make the play-offs, only finishing in the top six in 36.4% of sims, and will need to improve soon to do so after losing back-to-back games against Bristol Rovers and Stockport.
Reading deserve huge credit for their campaign that could still end in promotion despite chaotic scenes off the pitch that will hopefully soon be resolved. Noel Hunt has guided them to play-off contention since arriving in December, and has made the Royals difficult to beat. They’re undefeated in their last 11 league games (W4 D6) and manage to seal a play-off place in 28.8% of sims.
Leyton Orient still have a chance of making the play-offs despite a poor run of recent form. Richie Wellens’ side had put themselves in a very strong position after winning 12 of 15 games between early December and mid-February, but they’ve lost five of six since and sit five points off the play-offs. They recover to make the top six in just 14.4% of sims.
Blackpool (1.7%) are the only other team who reach the play-offs more than 0.1% of the time.
Relegation Battle
Only Birmingham getting promoted is more predictable than the relegation fight, at least for some teams.
With nine games to go, things look bleak for Shrewsbury Town. The appointment of Gareth Ainsworth in November led to an initial bounce with a shock 3-2 win over Birmingham, but it didn’t last. Back-to-back wins in early February against Mansfield Town and Rotherham United also teased a recovery, but two points from their next eight games have left them bottom of the pile.
Shrewsbury are 14 points from safety, and the Opta supercomputer sees them relegated in 99.8% of simulations.
Not far ahead are Cambridge United, who also changed manager with Neil Harris arriving in February, but their change also hasn’t done much for their hopes. They enjoyed back-to-back wins against Stockport and Crawley, but since then have just one point from five outings, sitting 12 points from safety with just eight games remaining. Cambridge go down in 99.1% of sims.
Next are Crawley, another team with a new boss, or an old one depending on how you view it. Scott Lindsey left the Broadfield Stadium for MK Dons in September, but was sacked after just five months. A few weeks later, Crawley parted ways with Rob Elliot, and Lindsey came back for a second spell just last week. He earned a 1-0 win over Bristol Rovers on Saturday, but there is still a lot of work to be done.
Crawley remain nine points from safety with eight games remaining, and the Red Devils go back down to League Two after just one season back in the third tier in 97.4% of sims.
After only winning two of their first 25 games, Burton Albion have recovered under Gary Bowyer, who arrived in December, winning six of their last 13 and only losing three in that time. They remain six points behind Bristol Rovers and Northampton Town directly above them, but do have a game in hand on both. They go down 76.0% of the time, meaning they have almost a one-in-four chance of survival.
Bristol Rovers had a poor result at Crawley on Saturday, which followed a 5-0 thrashing at Lincoln City, but they will still fancy their chances of staying up. Iñigo Calderón’s men only succumb to a bottom-four finish in 16.7% of sims.
Northampton are on the same points as Rovers (42) but the supercomputer gives them just a 7.0% chance of going down, possibly due to having a slightly easier run-in on paper. Kevin Nolan’s side play each of the bottom three in their last eight games while Bristol Rovers still have to face Birmingham and Wrexham.
Mansfield have just a 2.4% chance of going straight back down to League Two, while Exeter City (0.6%) and Wigan Athletic (0.5%) can probably feel safe now, as can Rotherham (0.3%) despite losing seven of their last 11 games.
Peterborough also gave their survival hopes a massive boost with their 3-0 win over Charlton on Saturday, now only relegated in 0.2% of sims, while Stevenage only fall into the drop zone in 0.1%.
The Expected Points Table
The Opta expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
This is of course not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams are performing. We can use it to see which teams’ league position doesn’t quite accurately reflect their performances.
While Birmingham have indeed been dominant in League One, they are perhaps a bit fortunate to be so far ahead. While they also lead the expected points table, they only do so by 0.2 points, instead of the nine-point lead they currently enjoy. Davies’ men actually have 15 points more than they should have, which perhaps goes to show how efficient they have been.
Wycombe also sit in their expected position, but have supposedly only overachieved by just over three points, while Stockport sit in third, actually 2.1 points behind their expected total. Charlton’s rise should perhaps have been expected, with the Addicks underperforming their expected total but 3.4 points.
Wrexham are the team considered to be overreaching the most. They may sit second in the actual table, which is of course the important thing, but they are only ninth in the expected table, and have almost 20 points more than they should.
It’s a similar story at the other end, with only one of the actual bottom four in the expected bottom four, with none of the bottom three apparently deserving to be there.
Cambridge, Shrewsbury and Crawley each have more expected points than Exeter, Northampton and Bristol Rovers, who apparently should be the teams in trouble at the moment. In fact, Cambridge are supposedly underperforming by 14.6 points, which isn’t ideal when you’re fighting relegation.
Cambridge have more expected points than Reading, which is quite something when you consider there are 15 places and 29 points between them in the actual table.
So, perhaps when it comes to League One, we should expect the unexpected.
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