League Two Predictions 2024-25: March Opta Supercomputer Update

With only a few weeks remaining of the season, we’ve decided it’s time to check in on the Opta supercomputer’s updated League Two predictions and analyse some of the underlying data powering those projections.

It has been an especially competitive League Two this season, and with eight games remaining for most teams, as many as nine clubs could consider themselves still in with a chance of automatic promotion.

Walsall threatened to run away with things but have been reeled back in by Bradford City; the play-off picture changes every week; and the relegation scrap still has the potential to cause some drama.

What will happen? Nobody knows, but we’ve got the Opta supercomputer up our sleeve, so can at least have a good go at predicting it.

We’ve run 10,000 simulations for the rest of the League Two season to see who is likeliest to finish where.

The Promotion Race

Following a 4-2 home win over MK Dons on 18 January, Walsall were 12 points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand. Mat Sadler’s side were seemingly cruising to the title and automatic promotion.

However, a 3-0 loss at Bradford City in their next outing was an ominous sign of things to come. Walsall have won just two of their last 13 games (D6 L5), and though they remain top, their advantage over Bradford is down to a single point.

Sadler’s Saddlers are fortunate that, Bradford aside, no other teams have been able to put a consistent enough run together to take advantage of their extended blip. With a six-point gap to fourth, Walsall remain very likely to at least seal automatic promotion, doing so in 89.7% of simulations, but they now only win the title in 50.0%.

Graham Alexander’s Bradford pip them to first in 32.8% of sims, though momentum is very much on their side, so that percentage could improve quickly. The Bantams have won 14 of their last 20 league games (D2 L4), and although recent surprise defeats to Gillingham and Tranmere Rovers have slowed them down a bit, the supercomputer sees them head back up to League One for the first time since the 2018-19 season in 84.0% of sims.

The final promotion spot is very much up for grabs. Just two points separate AFC Wimbledon in third and Notts County in sixth, while ninth-place Crewe Alexandra are only six points off third.

Johnnie Jackson’s Wimbledon have had a bit of a wobble themselves recently, winning just two of their last eight (D3 L3). But heading into this weekend, they sit third on goal difference ahead of Port Vale, and secure automatic promotion in 33.7% of sims.

Darren Moore is hoping to repay the faith shown in him when Port Vale handed him a five-and-a-half year contract in February 2024, and he’s able to secure automatic promotion back to the third tier at the first time of asking in 29.3% of sims. They will be tested in the next few weeks, though, with two of their next three games against Bradford and Walsall. They also travel to Wimbledon in their penultimate fixture, which could be a huge promotion clash.

Doncaster Rovers will be wondering how they’re still in this division. Grant McCann’s side ended last season by winning 10 of their last 11 games and reaching the play-offs, only to lose in the semi-finals on penalties to Crewe. They weren’t quite able to take that exceptional form into this season but still have a chance of making it a more successful ending. Just a point off third and with a game in hand, Doncaster manage to force their way into that spot at the end of the campaign in more simulations than Wimbledon and Port Vale (41.3%).

Notts County are just two points behind Wimbledon but are not in great form. Stuart Maynard’s side have won just two of their last nine games (D3 L4) and only sneak into the promotion spots in 16.8% of sims. They host Doncaster on the final day, which could be a dramatic afternoon if things remain close to the end.

There are outside chances for Grimsby Town (1.0%), Colchester United (2.1%) and Crewe (1.6%), but their eyes will likely be focused on the more realistic aim of a play-off place.

Play-Off Push

To show how close League Two currently is, the supercomputer still gives as many as 16 teams a chance of reaching the play-offs.

Only four will, of course, but AFC Wimbledon will be hoping they aren’t one of them as it’ll mean they’ve slipped down from third. However, Jackson’s men do so in 59.8% of simulations.

Port Vale’s chances of a play-off spot sit at 62.8%, while Doncaster are tasked with avenging their failure from last season in 53.7% of sims.

Notts County are seen as the likeliest team to make the play-offs (68.1%), though despite sitting in the final play-off spot heading into the next round of games, Grimsby are only given a 27.2% chance of hanging onto it.

Danny Cowley’s Colchester host Grimsby on Friday and manage to take a play-off spot for themselves in 43.3% of sims, while last year’s finalists Crewe give themselves another go at it 35.2% of the time.

Salford City’s season has really slowed down since their 8-0 loss at Manchester City in the FA Cup in January, winning just two of 13 league matches since (D5 L7), though a win at Grimsby last time out will have boosted confidence. They earn a play-off place in 7.5% of sims, while Chesterfield give themselves a shot at back-to-back promotions by nudging into the top seven in 12.6%.

Bromley could do the same, though Andy Woodman’s men only claim an unlikely play-off spot in 2.4% of sims, with no other team doing so more than 1% of the time.

Relegation Battle

The battle at the bottom features significantly fewer teams, but it’s not done just yet.

Carlisle United and Morecambe have been in the bottom two since early December but threatened to drag Tranmere and Accrington Stanley into the mire as recently as last month.

Accrington have won 11 points from their last seven games to pull away, though, and have reduced their chances of relegation to just 0.9%.

Tranmere haven’t entirely done the same and remain in 22nd place, though form has picked up under caretaker boss Andy Crosby. They are unbeaten in their last five, with back-to-back wins over Bromley and Bradford really helping matters. Rovers now have a six-point cushion to Carlisle in 23rd, and are only relegated in 20.2% of sims.

Carlisle were over the moon less than two years ago as they celebrated a League Two play-off final victory at Wembley, but immediate relegation from League One has been followed by another season of struggle, and they now look very likely to lose their Football League status entirely.

Mark Hughes’ men are putting up a fight, having only lost two of their last eight (W2 D4), but they still go down to the National League in 88.9% of sims.

Despite being a point further back, bottom side Morecambe are given a slightly better chance of survival, though that won’t be much consolation as Derek Adams’ side still go down 88.2% of the time. It has been a strange season for Morecambe, who didn’t win any of their first 10 games, which included a run of four draws in a row (L6). Since then, they have drawn just two of their last 28 (W8 L18). That apparent all-or-nothing approach seemingly hasn’t worked.

They do host Carlisle at the Mazuma Mobile Stadium on 12 April, though that could just be to decide who avoids the ignominy of finishing bottom.

The one other team with a greater than 1% chance of relegation is Harrogate Town, but they only drop into the bottom two in 1.6% of sims.

The Expected Points Table

The Opta expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the expected goals (xG) value of all shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for both teams in all matches can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

This is of course not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams are performing. We can use it to see which teams’ league position doesn’t quite accurately reflect their performances.

Walsall may have been slipping in recent weeks, but according to our model, they are rightly still in top spot. Sadler’s side have actually underperformed their expected points by 1.4, and should have a slightly more comfortable three-point cushion at the top.

Bradford are the ones who have been overachieving it seems, with Alexander’s men supposedly on almost 12 more points than they should be at this stage. It is actually Doncaster and Notts County who should be the closest challengers to Walsall, though both still have time to force their way into those automatic promotion spots.

Grimsby are also deemed to be overachieving, earning almost 10 more points than their expected tally, but unquestionably the most notable is Newport County. The Welsh outfit sit in 18th place, a comfortable 15 points from the relegation zone, but they are bottom of the expected points table with 12 points fewer than they have, according to this model.

That will be little consolation to Carlisle, who are the division’s biggest underachievers. The Cumbrians not only shouldn’t be in the relegation zone, but the expected points table has them in 17th place, almost 13 points clear of the drop.

How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?

• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

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