By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-08-18 17:54:06 | Updated at 2026-08-20 01:56:48
1 day ago
Will Paris Saint-Germain retain their crown? Which clubs could pose a serious threat to the European champions, and who are the likely relegation candidates? We answer the key questions with our Ligue 1 2026-27 season predictions from the Opta supercomputer.
Like last year, Paris Saint-Germain head into the new season as reigning Ligue 1 and European champions.
Luis Enrique’s team became the first side since Real Madrid, between 2016 and 2018, to successfully retain the UEFA Champions League crown, while they edged out Lens in their domestic title race.
PSG have won Ligue 1 in each of the past five seasons, and they will once again be the team to beat in France’s top flight.
Well adrift of the top two last season were Lille, who finished third, just ahead of Lyon and Marseille, while Rennes and Monaco completed Ligue 1’s European qualifiers.
Nantes and Metz went down, being replaced by Troyes and Le Mans, while Nice beat Saint-Etienne 4-1 on aggregate in the relegation play-off to maintain their top-flight status.
But in 2026-27, which teams could challenge PSG’s dominance, and which clubs are set to be scrapping it out at the bottom of the standings?
Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we assess how the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season could pan out.
Who Will Win the Ligue 1 Title?
It will surprise absolutely nobody to see that PSG are the supercomputer’s big favourites to win the title.
They finished six points clear of Lens last term, though they were tested by Pierre Sage’s team for the majority of the campaign.
And the fact that they didn’t quite run away with the crown last season has perhaps played into PSG’s chances of glory dipping compared to this time last year.
It also has to be noted that Lens beat them in the curtain-raiser to the 2026-27 French season last weekend, winning 1-0 in the Trophée des Champions at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Despite this, PSG still come out on top in a whopping 68.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-season simulations, but that is a fair chunk down from the 78.7% chance they were assigned before last season kicked off.
PSG were not quite as dominant in the league in 2025-26 as they had been in the 2024-25 campaign. They lost six games, winning 24 and drawing four.
However, they were still top dogs in the end.
Luis Enrique’s team averaged the highest possession of any team in Europe’s top five leagues (68.9%), while in Ligue 1, they scored at least eight more goals (74) than any other team (Lens ranked second on 66).
PSG’s 72.1 expected goals was also the highest in the competition, ahead of Lens’ 67.6. The champions had 602 shots, 43 clear than any other team, and 227 of those hit the target – Marseille ranked second, with 194.
And PSG’s star-studded attack had plenty of the ball in the final third. Indeed, their 1,215 touches in the opposition box was 170 more than next-best Lens (1,045).
Going the other way, PSG also had the best defence in Ligue 1, shipping just 29 goals from a league-low 31.9 xG against.
They were the only team in Ligue 1 to face fewer than 300 shots (299), too.
While there are question marks over Bradley Barcola’s future, an attack of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé would be by far the strongest in the league anyway, while Maghnes Akliouche has also joined already, and PSG could yet add Ferran Torres to that picture.
They have a 91.5% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and they were relegated in none of the sims. In fact, their lowest projected finish is 13th, at 0.1%.
Such is the supercomputer’s confidence in PSG, they have only a 2.1 % chance of finishing as low as a UEFA Europa League place, and a 1.2% likelihood of qualifying for the UEFA Conference League.
But what about the challengers?
It has been a summer of change at Lens, who were always likely to have their best and brightest plucked after their fantastic season last term.
Crystal Palace have taken coach Pierre Sage, while star midfielder Mamadou Sangaré has been sold to Brentford. Sangaré led the competition for tackles won (52) last season.
Thorgan Hazard, younger brother of Eden, headlines Lens’ summer recruitment drive, with Malang Sarr and Allan Saint-Maximin among the other players to depart.
So, new coach Dino Toppmöller has a rebuild to deal with, though our model still fancies Lens’ chances of finishing high up.
They are the most likely team to finish second (19.4%). They won the title in 9.7% of the simulations.
There is only a 0.6% chance they go down, which is down from 4.6% prior to the start of last season.
Lens are tipped to be the best of the rest, while Lille have an 11.4% chance of matching their third-place finish from last season, while they come in at 4.5% for the Ligue 1 title.
Monaco are just behind Lyon when it comes to title chances, with 3.4% and 3.8%, respectively, while Marseille are slightly further back at 2.9%.
Rennes are at 2.8%, with Strasbourg (1.6%) the only other club to have a higher-than-1% chance of winning the title.
So, it’s safe to say, yet again, it’s PSG’s to lose.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
There is a 44.8% likelihood Lens qualify for the Champions League, making them the most likely team after PSG to do so.
However, can their squad right now deal with the rigours of Champions League football this season, while also remaining competitive in Ligue 1?
That will be a big ask, and there is an 11.8% chance Lens slip into the bottom half.
Lille are under new management, with Davide Ancelotti – son of Carlo – taking charge this summer. He could well have to deal with the loss of star youngster Ayyoub Bouaddi, who is a target for Manchester City.
They are handed a 26.9% likelihood of finishing in the Champions League places, while Lyon, even though their title chances are lower than Monaco’s, actually have a better chance of finishing in the top four than the principality club.
Lyon’s probability of Champions League qualification comes in at 23.2% to Monaco’s 22.8%.
Marseille no longer have the goals of Mason Greenwood to rely on following his move to Fenerbahce, and they achieved Champions League qualification across 21.0% of the 10,000 sims.
Rennes have a 20.2% likelihood of a Champions League place, but there is then a big drop to Strasbourg (12.7%), albeit they do have the potential benefit of not having European football to contend with this season. Hugo Oliveira has replaced Gary O’Neil at the helm there.
Toulouse are forecasted to repeat their ninth-place finish, though their 8.8% probability of a Champions League push is not necessarily to be scoffed at.
But it’s difficult to see any of the other Ligue 1 teams truly challenging for a place in UEFA’s elite club competition.
Who Will Be Relegated From Ligue 1 in 2026-27?
Troyes and Le Mans are the new kids on the block, after finishing first and second, respectively, in Ligue 2 last season.
Ahead of 2025-26, Metz and Lorient were expected to go down, while Le Havre were anticipated to finish 16th, and therefore drop into the relegation/promotion play-off.
The supercomputer was spot on when it came to Metz, though Lorient survived, and actually finished 10th, well clear of any danger.
Le Havre placed 14th, with Nice – who were forecasted to compete for the European places – ultimately the team left contesting the play-off.
And while both Troyes and Le Mans are expected to be battling it out at the bottom, it is Angers – who finished 13th last term – that the supercomputer is forecasting will prop up the table.
Angers finish last in 20.7% of the sims and go down automatically in 35.9%. There is an 11.8% chance of them finishing 16th.
Le Mans went down in 29.2% of the model’s simulations, finishing bottom 16.0% of the time. They have an 11.3% likelihood of finishing in the relegation/promotion play-off spot.
That is just slightly higher than Troyes’ 11.3%, with the Ligue 2 champions having an 11.9% chance of finishing 17th and a 12.7% chance of propping up the pile.
Le Havre are also predicted to struggle, with a 22.0% probability that they go down and a 9.9% chance of them having to get through the play-off.
Nice, last season’s surprise strugglers, are now expected to be down there again, albeit their chances of relegation are a healthier 17.7%, while there is an 8.7% possibility of them having to contest the play-off yet again.
Lorient’s solid performance last season is expected to be repeated, while Paris FC – who are now under Liam Rosenior’s guidance – could harbour slim hopes of a European charge.
The likelihood Paris finish inside the top six is 20.8%, though on the whole, the supercomputer is predicting a safe, mid-table finish for the team that came 11th last season.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
- Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
- The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
- The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
*All prediction data is based on Opta supercomputer projections from simulations run on 18 August 2026.
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