By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-08 12:01:04 | Updated at 2026-09-18 23:16:58
1 week ago
We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid prediction and preview. Can either side kickstart their European campaign with a victory?
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid: The Key Stats
- Liverpool are expected to get their Champions League campaign up and running with a victory, winning 53% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Andoni Iraola is winless in his four games against Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid, losing three of them (D1).
- Liverpool have never lost their opening game of a European Cup/Champions League campaign when playing at home (W10 D2).
The new UEFA Champions League season is upon us, with a blockbuster meeting between Liverpool and Atlético Madrid on the cards for the first matchweek.
Atlético made it through to the semi-finals of the Champions League last season, only to suffer a narrow defeat to Arsenal, and their fourth-place La Liga finish was enough to secure their berth this time around.
Liverpool, meanwhile, were knocked out at the quarter-finals by eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain. A fifth-place finish in the Premier League secured their place in this year’s competition.
It has been all change for the Reds since their last match in the competition, with Andoni Iraola set to take charge of his first-ever Champions League match.
He did play three games in the competition for Athletic Club in 2014-15, but his only managerial experience in European football was in 2018-19 when he led AEK Larnaca to the Europa League group stage through the qualifiers.
Iraola does now have a first Liverpool win under his belt; having started the league campaign with back-to-back draws with Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest, they beat Ipswich Town 2-0 on Friday.
Alexander Isak got a brace in the first nine minutes of that game, with Cody Gakpo assisting them both. The striker has already netted three goals this term, while Gakpo – who had looked set to leave in the transfer window – has been directly involved in four goals in the Premier League this season (1 goal, 3 assists).
That is good news for Liverpool, who are heading into a Champions League campaign without Mohamed Salah for the first time since 2014-15, with the Egyptian top for games (83), goals (47) and assists (19) for the Reds in the history of the competition.
Iraola will hope his players carry their domestic form into Europe, especially given he is winless in his four games against Diego Simeone’s Atlético, losing three of them (D1). Of managers he has faced as many times (4+), only against Imanol Alguacil (83%) does he have a higher loss percentage (5/6).
Liverpool have never lost their opening game of a European Cup/Champions League campaign when playing at home, winning 10 of 12 such matches (D2). Each of the last three have been 3-2 home victories, with the most recent being against Atlético last season.
But Atlético will want to get their European campaign off to a strong start, especially after a dismal 3-0 thrashing to Iraola’s former club Athletic on Saturday.
That match marked the first time Atlético conceded two goals in the first three minutes of the second half in a single La Liga match.
They are regulars in this competition, though, and this will be the 14th consecutive Champions League campaign in which Atlético have featured. They are one of only six sides to feature in every edition since 2013-14, along with Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
Question marks remain over whether Julián Alvarez, who scored a team-high 10 goals in the competition last term, will be back among the starters following his re-integration into the squad. The former Man City player was denied a summer move to Barcelona, though he did come off the bench in Saturday’s defeat.
But Atlético could have another weapon in Marcos Llorente, who has a particularly good record on Merseyside. He has scored four goals in just two appearances against Liverpool at Anfield. Only at the Metropolitano, Atlético’s home ground, has he found the net more times at a single venue, scoring goals times in 145 games.
The biggest question mark for Iraola is who he will play on the wings. Gakpo is in good form, while Víctor Muñoz has impressed in his first few games for the club. New signing Bradley Barcola may be ready to make his first start, though, after coming off the bench in the win at Ipswich.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Head-to-Head
Liverpool have won each of their last three games against Atlético Madrid in the Champions League; the Spanish side have never lost four consecutive games against an opponent in the European Cup/Champions League.
Atlético’s two wins against Liverpool in the competition both came in the last 16 in 2019-20 (1-0 at home, 3-2 away).
The Reds are unbeaten against them in the competition in group-stage/league-phase meetings, though, winning three and drawing two of the previous five such matches.
As mentioned, these two faced off at Anfield on Matchday 1 last season, with Liverpool winning 3-2 thanks to a late header from Virgil van Dijk.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Given their strong record against Atlético in the Champions League, the Opta supercomputer is tipping Liverpool to prevail on Wednesday with a 53% chance of victory.
Atlético, by contrast, won just 23.5% of the pre-match simulations and are only slightly more likely to win than draw (23.4%).
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson, Jeremie Frimpong, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak
Head coach: Andoni Iraola
Atlético Madrid: Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Alejandro Grimaldo, Pablo Barrios, Morten Hjulmand, Giuliano Simeone, Ademola Lookman, Álex Baena, Lee Kang-In
Head coach: Diego Simeone
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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