Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Will Arne Slot’s table-topping Reds maintain their strong start to the season?

Liverpool vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights

• Liverpool are given a 59.3% chance of defeating Chelsea at Anfield, with the Blues assigned a 19.4% win probability.
• Having lost three consecutive league games against Chelsea between 2013 and 2014, Liverpool have now lost just two of their last 19 against the Blues (W7 D10).
• Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke have created 15 chances for each other in the Premier League this season, the most of any duo. Palmer’s four assists for Madueke are also the most from one player for a teammate so far this term.

Two teams who are flying high so far this season go head-to-head in this weekend’s big Premier League game as leaders Liverpool welcome in-form Chelsea to Anfield for a potentially mouth-watering encounter on Sunday.

The Reds have been in excellent form under new head coach Arne Slot, who is the first Liverpool boss to win as many as nine of his first 10 games in charge of the club in all competitions, though Opta’s power ranking system suggests they have actually had the easiest start of any Premier League team.

Chelsea, who have won four of their last six league outings after losing to Manchester City in their opening match, are sure to present an altogether tougher test.

Replacing a club legend like Jürgen Klopp was not going to be easy, though Slot is making a good fist of making it look simple so far.

The former Feyenoord coach has reduced the chaos and brought slightly more control to Liverpool’s play, and for the most part, it has worked a treat, bar a shock 1-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest in September.

Despite winning seven of their eight league games and sitting top of the table, Liverpool have only recorded the third-highest xG in the league over the first seven games of 2024-25 (14.0), behind Chelsea and Tottenham, but Slot has looked to build on a strong base.

Liverpool have conceded the fewest goals (two), kept the most clean sheets (five), and have the lowest expected goals against (xGA) figure (5.2) of any side in the Premier League this season. In the 266 minutes in which Liverpool’s Premier League games have been level this season, the Reds have faced just 16 shots, an average of 5.4 per 90. This is both the lowest total faced, and per-90 faced when drawing of any side in the competition.

However, it could be suggested they have ridden their luck at times. They have conceded good chances in recent games and were perhaps fortunate that Virgil van Dijk’s pull on Marc Guéhi’s arm in their 1-0 win at Crystal Palace did not result in a penalty for the hosts. However, that victory came at a cost as goalkeeper Alisson sustained a hamstring injury that will keep him out for the next few weeks.

In Caoimhín Kelleher, Liverpool have a reliable number two, though. The Republic of Ireland international has always stepped up when required, and since the start of last season, has recorded an impressive goals prevented figure of 2.9, having conceded 10 Premier League goals (excluding own goals and penalties) from an expected goals on target (xGOT) against a figure of 12.9.

Kelleher also played in Liverpool’s extra-time victory over Chelsea in the EFL Cup final in February, as well as scoring the crucial penalty in a shootout success in the showpiece match of the same competition two years earlier, so he has fond memories of facing the Blues.

Chelsea, though, should arrive at Anfield in good spirits – these two are the only teams with a 100% away win rate in the Premier League this season (Liverpool 4/4, Chelsea 3/3). Only in 2005-06 (4) and 2008-09 (8) have Chelsea ever won their opening four away matches of a league season.

Maresca, meanwhile, is looking to become only the fifth boss to win each of his first four away Premier League games, with one of the previous four to do so being Slot (also Bobby Gould, John Gregory, and Luiz Felipe Scolari).

As ever, Chelsea will want to get on the ball, but they may be best served being patient and waiting for their moments to pounce on the break.

Key to that tactic could be Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke, who have created 15 chances for one another in the Premier League this season, the most of any duo.

Palmer’s four assists for Madueke are also the most from one player for a teammate. Meanwhile, Palmer has directly contributed to more Premier League goals (44 – 28 goals, 16 assists) than any other player in the top flight since the start of last season.

The 22-year-old was named Premier League Player of the Month for September. He has won two of the last three Player of the Month awards, with only Frank Lampard (four) winning more for the Blues than Palmer (two).

Palmer shouldn’t be alone, though. In Nicolas Jackson, João Félix, Pedro Neto and Jadon Sancho, Chelsea have plenty of attackers who could test that mean Liverpool defence.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

Having lost three consecutive league games against Chelsea between 2013 and 2014, Liverpool have now lost just two of their last 19 against the Blues (7 wins, 10 draws).

Indeed, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League meetings with Chelsea, though five of these have ended level (W1).

Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games against Liverpool (D5 L3), and they went down 4-1 in the corresponding fixture last season.

That big win for the Reds came less than a month before the EFL Cup final, in which a depleted Liverpool side won 1-0 thanks to Van Dijk’s header deep into stoppage time, with Chelsea – then of course overseen by Mauricio Pochettino – passing up four ‘big chances’, defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a team would reasonably be expected to score.

But under Maresca, who is freshly minted as Premier League Manager of the Month for September, Chelsea have been more clinical. Only Man City (17) have scored more goals than the Blues (16), who have also outperformed their 14.7 expected goals (xG), so they will be hoping to capitalise on any big opportunities that come their way on Sunday.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction

Top of the league heading into MD 8 with home advantage and with a strong record against Chelsea, it’s hardly surprising that Liverpool are made the favourites by the Opta supercomputer.

The model gives the Reds a 59.3% chance of taking the three points, while Chelsea came out on top in 19.4% of its simulations. The likelihood of a draw is 21.3%.

In our Premier League season predictions, meanwhile, Liverpool are given a 10.9% chance of lifting the title, with Chelsea finishing fourth in a league-high 36.9% of scenarios.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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