By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-09 09:40:35 | Updated at 2026-10-09 10:52:21
3 hours ago
The standout Premier League fixture of Matchday 6 sees two old rivals square off at Anfield. We look ahead to Sunday’s heavyweight clash with our Liverpool vs Man City prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Man City: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester City slight favourites for victory on Sunday, holding a 40.7% win probability to Liverpool’s 34.6%.
- This will be the first Premier League match between Liverpool and Man City without either Jürgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola in the dugout since March 2015, when Brendan Rodgers’ Reds beat Manuel Pellegrini’s Citizens 2-1 at Anfield.
- Enzo Maresca could become only the fourth manager to win the first six matches of a spell in charge of a club in the Premier League, after Carlo Ancelotti with Chelsea, Guardiola with City, and Ole Gunnar Solskjær with Manchester United.
It is fair to say Manchester City had an eventful international break.
The Premier League was thrown into turmoil following confirmation that City had been found guilty by an independent commission of all charges relating to breaches of the competition’s financial regulations between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons, and the majority of charges in relation to their failure to co-operate with the league’s investigation. City deny all the allegations and have appealed against the charges.
As difficult as it may be amid all the talk of hefty punishments, Enzo Maresca and his players must turn their attention to on-pitch matters this Sunday, when they are sure to receive a vociferous welcome from Liverpool‘s fans at Anfield.
During the tenures of Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, fixtures between these teams were circled in the calendar far in advance, but for the first time in 11 years, they will face off without either of those iconic coaches in the dugouts.
The last time that was the case, in March 2015, Brendan Rodgers’ Reds beat Manuel Pellegrini’s Citizens 2-1 at Anfield.
Neither Andoni Iraola nor Maresca have tasted defeat in the Premier League with their new clubs, though it is the City boss who has made the more impressive start.
With Sunday’s visitors emerging from the international break with the only 100% record in the Premier League, Maresca could become only the fourth manager to open a spell in charge of any club with six straight wins in the competition, after Carlo Ancelotti with Chelsea, Guardiola with City, and Ole Gunnar Solskjær with Manchester United.
Prior to the international break – which may feel like a lifetime ago to City fans – Maresca’s men earned a chaotic 5-3 victory over Sunderland, with Antoine Semenyo grabbing a brace while Enzo Fernández, Rayan Cherki and Erling Haaland joined him on the scoresheet.
Maresca said afterwards that he would “prefer to win 1-0 than 5-3”, and though the Italian will yearn for greater control over games, he will surely be delighted with how his attackers have started the campaign.
Haaland leads the Golden Boot race already, with five goals to his name, and after finding the net against Sunderland, he has scored against all 25 teams he has faced in the Premier League. The Norwegian failed to score on his first three Premier League trips to Anfield, finally finding the net on the fourth attempt in February, in a 2-1 triumph for City.
Cherki and Semenyo, meanwhile, rank first and second among all Premier League players for their expected goals overperformance this campaign. Cherki has scored three goals from 0.72 xG (+2.28), while Semenyo has struck twice from 0.34 xG (+1.66).
In what is sure to be a red-hot atmosphere, City will have to keep clear heads. After starring for England in Declan Rice’s absence during the international break, Elliot Anderson will look to calm things down and dictate proceedings.
Anderson leads all midfielders in the Premier League this season for line-breaking passes (105), progressive carries (64), and duel success (60.7%, minimum 50 contested).
Having won at Anfield with Nottingham Forest in 2024-25 (1-0) and 2025-26 (3-0), Anderson could become the seventh player to win on his first three away starts against Liverpool in the Premier League, and the first since Martin Kelly with Crystal Palace between 2015 and 2017.
Liverpool are six points off the early pace being set by City, having won two and drawn three of their opening five games of 2026-27, though they did go into the hiatus in positive spirits after winning 1-0 at Bournemouth.
Iraola could become only the third permanent Liverpool manager to avoid defeat in each of his first six top-flight matches in charge, after Bob Paisley in 1974 and Joe Fagan in 1983.
But the Spaniard is still seeking his first home Premier League victory, having overseen draws with Nottingham Forest and Fulham. There have only been seven previous instances of Liverpool failing to win any of their first three home games in a season, and just two since the First World War – in 1963-64 and 2012-13.
There have certainly been signs that the Reds learning Iraola’s high-octane style, having applied high-intensity pressures to 48.9% of their opponent’s touches in the opposition’s half in the Premier League this season – the highest rate of any side.
City, though, are completing 83.0% of their passes attempted while under high-intensity pressure in the competition this term, the best accuracy of any side.
Iraola revealed on Thursday that both Alexander Isak – whose four goals have only been bettered by Haaland this season – and Cody Gakpo – who has six goal involvements in all competitions this term – are doubtful after withdrawing from their national squads, potentially leaving Liverpool short in attack.
Florian Wirtz made three appearances for Klopp’s Germany side during the international break, scoring in their 2-0 win over Serbia, though Jamie Carragher recently said the attacking midfielder’s performance against Bournemouth was “his poorest in a Liverpool shirt”.
In 403 minutes of Premier League action this season, Wirtz has tallied just 0.39 expected assists (xA) from nine chances created. He needs a breakout performance, preferably on a big stage, and there would be no better fixture than this one.
Liverpool vs Man City Head-to-Head
Liverpool lost home and away to Man City in the Premier League last season, which was the first time they had lost back-to-back league games against the Citizens since March 1937 (four in a row).
And, following their late 2-1 victory on Merseyside in February, City are looking to win on successive league visits to Liverpool for the first time since 1953.
The away side has won two of the last three Premier League games between Liverpool and City, as many as in the previous 32 beforehand.
The only time there have been back-to-back away wins in this Premier League fixture was back in 2002-03.
Liverpool vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Man City narrow favourites to keep their winning start going this weekend, as they triumphed in 40.7% of our pre-match simulations.
Liverpool took all three points in 34.6% of the 10,000 pre-game sims, while the remaining 24.7% finished level – none of the last five meetings between the teams have been drawn, since they shared the points in both matches in 2023-24.
Liverpool vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson, Jeremie Frimpong, Ronald Araujo, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Rio Ngumoha, Victor Munoz, Bradley Barcola.
Head coach: Andoni Iraola
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Josko Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Rayan Cherki, Iliman Ndiaye, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
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