Man City vs Brighton Prediction

An enticing clash in the Premier League‘s top-four race awaits at the Etihad Stadium. We look ahead to Saturday’s game with our Manchester City vs Brighton prediction and preview.

Man City vs Brighton Stats: The Key Insights

• Manchester City are the favourites, winning 55% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
• City have never lost a home league match against Brighton (W12 D2), their best run in history against one opponent without ever losing.
• Erling Haaland needs just one more goal or assist to become the first Premier League player to hit 100 goal involvements in fewer than 100 games.

Manchester City will aim to boost their top-four hopes when they host fellow European challengers, in-form Brighton, in Saturday’s Premier League clash at the Etihad Stadium.

Pep Guardiola’s side slipped to a 1-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest last Saturday as Callum Hudson-Odoi’s late strike proved decisive in the early kick-off at the City Ground.

Brighton then snatched a last-gasp 2-1 victory over Fulham on the same day, with João Pedro scoring a last-gasp winner from the penalty spot. Jan Paul van Hecke had earlier cancelled out Raúl Jiménez’s opener before Fabian Hürzeler’s side made it four league wins in a row.

Their polarising results left City in fifth, just a point clear of seventh-placed Brighton and two adrift of Chelsea, who occupy fourth and the final automatic Champions League spot.

A resurgent Brighton would leapfrog City by winning here, with Hürzeler’s side currently on the longest winning run of any Premier League side (4). It’s also their longest league winning run since April 2017 in the Championship (5), and joint-longest ever in the top-flight (also 4 from April-May 1981).

In stark contrast, Man City have lost nine Premier League games this season. That is the joint-most league defeats Guardiola has suffered in a campaign in his entire managerial career (also 9 in 2019-20).

It has been an unexpected fall from grace for the four-in-a-row title winners, who could become the first reigning champions to lose 10+ Premier League games in a season since Chelsea in 2017-18 (10). City have also not suffered as many league defeats in a campaign since 2015-16 (10).

Their home form may be of particular concern for Guardiola, given his side have lost three top-flight games on their own turf this season, which is as many as the previous three campaigns combined. A 2-0 defeat to Liverpool last time out at the Etihad leaves them in danger of losing consecutive home league games under Guardiola for just a second time, also doing so in April/May 2021.

Central to any hope of a turnaround will likely be Erling Haaland. A goal or assist in this game will see him become the first player to reach 100 goal involvements in fewer than 100 Premier League games. He has six games to reach that figure and make history given he has been involved in 99 league goals in just 93 appearances (83 goals, 16 assists).

On the contrary, Phil Foden is now without a goal in his last five after opening 2025 with six goals in just four top-flight appearances. That could change here, though, considering the City star has scored more Premier League goals against Brighton than any other team (8).

Improvements are also needed at the back – Guardiola’s side have conceded 38 Premier League goals this season, only shipping more in a season under the former Barcelona boss in 2016-17 (39). 

Indeed, City’s 64 goals conceded in 2024-25 is their most since 2015-16 (65) across all competitions, which will leave in-form João Pedro relishing this clash. He is out to become the first Brighton player ever to score in four consecutive Premier League games, and just the second Brazilian to do so overall after Richarlison (twice, in March 2021 and April 2024).

As for team news, Guardiola remains without Oscar Bobb, John Stones, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Aké and Rodri. Matt O’Riley, Lewis Dunk and Joël Veltman could all return for Brighton, along with Tariq Lamptey coming back from suspension.

Man City vs Brighton Head-to-Head

Haaland opened the scoring in the reverse fixture but a late double blow from João Pedro and O’Riley sealed an impressive turnaround for Brighton’s 2-1 win back in November.

In fact, both of Brighton’s Premier League victories against Manchester City have been from behind – only Manchester United (3) have won more top-flight games against Guardiola despite trailing.

Their last comeback win leaves Brighton looking to complete their first ever league double over City, in what is the 15th different campaign in which these two sides have met.

However, City have never lost a home league match against Brighton (W12 D2), winning each of the last 10 in a row. That is the most they have faced a team at home without ever losing in their league history (14).

Man City vs Brighton Prediction

The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a home win – Manchester City triumphed in a dominant 55% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Brighton still boast a narrow 23.4% chance of winning all three points, though the draw was almost as likely at 21.7%.

Man City vs Brighton Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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