Man City vs Chelsea Prediction

Can Pep Guardiola’s team climb into the Premier League’s top four? We look ahead to Saturday’s late kick-off with our Manchester City vs Chelsea prediction and preview.

Man City vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester City slight favourites to beat Chelsea, giving them a 46.3% win probability to the Blues’ 30.2%.
• After a run of just one win in nine Premier League games from the start of November, Man City have now won three of their last four, scoring more goals in this run (14) than in their previous 11 league matches (13).
• Phil Foden has scored in each of his last three Premier League games (five goals in total). He has never scored in four straight league matches before.

Wednesday’s dramatic 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain left Manchester City on the brink of an early UEFA Champions League exit, with their worst campaign under Pep Guardiola threatening to reach a new nadir.

In the Premier League, however, City have turned something of a corner lately, taking 10 points from their last four games to boost their hopes of a top-four finish. They have a chance to move into the Champions League spots on Saturday, when they welcome Chelsea to the Etihad Stadium.

After a run of just one win in nine Premier League games from the start of November (D2 L6), City have now won three of their last four (D1). They have scored 14 goals in this run, more than they had in their previous 11 league games (13).

However, the one game they have not won in that stint – a 2-2 draw at Brentford last week – demonstrated their fragility at the back, and those failings were laid bare once again against PSG. Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland put City 2-0 ahead in Paris, only for the hosts to come roaring back to win. It was the first time City had lost a game having led by two goals in any competition since May 2021 – a 3-2 Premier League defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion.

City also faced as many as 26 shots in a match for the first since September 2012, when Real Madrid fired in 35 against them in a Champions League group-stage contest.

Guardiola has moved to strengthen his backline with the January acquisitions of Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis, both of whom could be involved in the matchday squad on Saturday with fellow defender Rúben Dias a doubt. Also eligible is Omar Marmoush, who arrived from Eintracht Frankfurt for an estimated £63million on Thursday.

Prior to leaving Eintracht, Marmoush recorded 15 goals and nine assists in 17 Bundesliga games in 2024-25, and 20 goals and 13 assists in 26 games in all competitions.

Alongside fellow Egyptian Mohamed Salah, Marmoush is one of just two players from Europe’s top five leagues in double figures for goals and assists in all competitions this term.

Marmoush may have to settle for a place on the bench on Saturday, with Guardiola likely to ease his new arrivals in.

Phil Foden will be one of those competing with Marmoush, and the 2023-24 Premier League Player of the Season has hit form in recent weeks, scoring in three straight league games (five goals in total). He has never scored in four in a row before.

Two of Foden’s strikes came in a 6-0 rout of Ipswich Town last Sunday, as City provided a reminder of their attacking quality. Kevin De Bruyne provided two assists at Portman Road, and he has now teed up four goals in his last three league games.

The Belgian also has five Premier League goals against his former club Chelsea, only netting more against Arsenal (eight) in the competition.

This will be, however, the latest City have faced Chelsea in the Premier League while below them in the table since 2016-17. On that occasion, Antonio Conte’s Blues won 2-1 at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 30 en route to winning the title.

Enzo Maresca’s hopes of overseeing a title charge are surely over after Chelsea went five league games without a victory either side of New Year, though they put a halt to their slump by beating Wolves 3-1 on Monday, with Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella and Noni Madueke scoring.

Madueke is now looking to cement his spot as a starter in the wide areas, and his partnership with former City man Cole Palmer has been a major positive this campaign. Palmer and Madueke have created 25 chances for each other in the Premier League this season, the most of any two players. Meanwhile, Palmer’s 17 chances created for Madueke are the most one player has laid on for a specific teammate this term.

Chelsea have struggled on the road lately, failing to win any of their last three away Premier League games (D2 L1) after winning six of their first eight to start the campaign (D1 L1). They have only scored once on their last three road trips, having averaged 2.9 goals per game in their previous eight (23 goals in total).

Man City vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

City are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against Chelsea, winning five and drawing two since a 2-1 home loss in May 2021, a result that delayed their coronation as Premier League champions.

Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League away games against City, winning 1-0 in February 2014.

They have failed to score themselves on seven occasions in that run, while they were also shut out when the teams faced off at Stamford Bridge on the opening matchday of 2024-25, losing 2-0.

Man City vs Chelsea Prediction

City are considered favourites for Saturday’s game, but with the champions assigned a 46.3% win probability, the supercomputer is not ruling out a result for Chelsea.

The chances of a draw are rated at 23.6%, with Chelsea assigned a 30.2% chance of victory.

City have lost their last three Premier League games played immediately after a European midweek game, as many as they had in their previous 34 (W21 D10). The last time the Citizens lost four such matches in a single campaign was back in 2010-11.

In our season predictions, City’s title hopes are rated at a mere 0.2%, but they do make the top four in 65.6% of simulations, with Chelsea doing so in 43.8% of scenarios.

Man City vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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