Man City vs Everton Prediction

Can Pep Guardiola’s reigning Premier League champions halt their slide? We look ahead to Thursday’s clash with our Man City vs Everton prediction and preview.

Man City vs Everton Stats: The Key Insights

• Despite recent form, the Opta supercomputer cannot look past a home win as Manchester City triumph in 73.7% of pre-match simulations.
• Sean Dyche has lost each of his last 11 Premier League meetings with Man City.
• Erling Haaland is goalless in his last three home games in the league but has never failed to score in four straight such games.

Manchester City suffered another blow in a troublesome season last time out at Aston Villa, though Pep Guardiola will hope his side can bounce back at home to Everton on Thursday.

Sean Dyche’s men make the trip to the Etihad Stadium off the back of two impressive goalless draws with Premier League title challengers Arsenal and Chelsea.

It is an entirely different story for hosts City, who are winless in their last three league outings after back-to-back 2-1 losses against Manchester United and Villa. Phil Foden managed a late consolation at Villa Park but the damage was already done after goals for Jhon Durán and Morgan Rogers.

That defeat saw City slip to seventh in the league table, four points adrift of the top four and a massive 12 points behind leaders Liverpool.

Stretching further back, the four-in-a-row champions have lost nine of their last 12 matches across all competitions, leaving Guardiola searching for immediate answers. Indeed, they have lost two of their last three home Premier League matches (W1), as many defeats as in their previous 57 league games at the Etihad.

Another remedy could come from Erling Haaland, who has failed to score in any of his last three league games at the Etihad but has never gone four consecutive matches without a goal on home soil.

The Norwegian talisman will aim to atone for his struggles here, having scored in all three previous Premier League appearances against Everton. He has four top-flight goals against the Toffees in total, including a brace in this fixture last season.

Ilkay Gündogan was also involved in all three of Man City’s goals – scoring two and assisting one – in his last Premier League appearance against Everton, a 3-0 win in May 2023. The veteran midfielder may not feature from the start here, but will be required at some point considering Guardiola’s injury problems.

Ederson, Nathan Ake, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Matheus Nunes, Oscar Bobb and Rodri will all be out for Thursday’s meeting.

Man City will be hoping to keep up their solid Boxing Day record, having won each of their last seven home league games on 26 December. They are unbeaten in nine such matches since a 1-0 loss to Port Vale in the second tier in 1996. They’ve also lost their final home league game of the year in just one of the last 17 years (W13 D3), with that defeat coming in 2018 (a 3-2 loss to Crystal Palace).

A battling point at Goodison Park against Chelsea helped Everton move to three games unbeaten and saw them jump to 15th in the table, four points clear of the relegation zone with a game in hand.

However, Everton have won just one of their last 19 away Premier League matches (D7 L11), failing to score in each of their last four away outings.

Improving that record will be key for Everton in the longer term, though an upturn may not come on Thursday. Dyche has lost each of his last 11 top-flight meetings with Man City, with his sides scoring just two goals in the process (34 goals conceded).

Dyche will hope to be boosted by returns for Armando Broja and Dwight McNeil at the Etihad, but James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam remain out for the visitors.

Man City vs Everton Head-to-Head

Man City have avoided defeat in their last 14 Premier League games against Everton (W12 D2) since a 4-0 loss at Goodison Park back in January 2017.

The hosts are also unbeaten in their last 13 league meetings on home soil with Everton (W8 D5), since suffering four straight defeats between February 2008 and December 2010.

Haaland scored a second-half brace to see City to a 2-0 win in this corresponding fixture last term, following up a 3-1 victory for Guardiola’s side at Goodison in December 2023.

There may still be hope for Dyche, however. Everton have won five of their last six league games against Man City on Boxing Day (W1), including the most recent meeting on this day back in 2004 (2-1).

Man City vs Everton Prediction

The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a win for Guardiola’s side on Thursday as Man City triumphed in 73.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Everton were afforded just an 11.0% chance of a rare away win, while the draw was ranked at 15.3% in the same data-led sims.

City’s title chances have dropped to just 0.6% in Opta’s end-of-season predictions, with their most likely finish being fourth (43.9%). Everton, meanwhile, have just a 7.8% likelihood of relegation.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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