By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-10-07 15:42:52 | Updated at 2026-10-07 21:55:42
7 hours ago
After guiding Manchester United to a third-place finish last season, Michael Carrick has overseen a difficult start to 2026-27. Should he be worried?
When Manchester United appointed Michael Carrick on a permanent two-year deal in the summer, for most it seemed like the only logical choice after he’d taken over halfway through the 2025-26 campaign and steered a side who were unspectacular under Ruben Amorim to a third-place finish. It was a just reward for his impact.
But five matches into the 2026-27 Premier League season and the pressure is on.
After winning 12 of his 17 games in charge last season (all in the Premier League), United have won just two of seven in all competitions this term. Those victories came over promoted Ipswich Town and Champions League debutants Sabah.
A 2-0 defeat at promoted Hull City on the opening day of the season was alarming; United then twice let a lead slip at Everton; they (controversially) lost at home to Manchester City despite having a man advantage for over an hour; they let a two-goal lead slip to a far more vibrant Brighton in the EFL Cup, and they could only draw 1-1 at a Fulham side who began Matchday 5 bottom of the table.
Results have been poor. Performances haven’t been much better.
So, what’s changed?
A Question of Intensity
One particularly notable aspect of United’s games this season is how much more of the ball they’ve generally had. Last term under Carrick, United averaged 49.1% possession; in 2026-27, they’ve had 58% in all competitions and that goes up to 59.9% when just looking at the Premier League, so a 22% increase compared to 2025-26.
We are of course talking about a fairly small sample size in 2026-27, including two games against promoted opposition and having a one-man advantage for so long in the derby, so their possession figure could yet come down. Either way, for now it does feel at odds with the strengths associated with Carrick’s squad – namely the quality they have in transition.
For instance, United impressed in the derby before Phil Foden’s red card, but once the onus was on them to take charge following the sending off, they looked uncomfortable.
Their increased time on the ball will also have some impact on their physical metrics, which have been used as a stick to beat them with in the past few weeks due to them covering less distance per 90 (103.1 kilometres) than all but one Premier League club this term. The discourse has often neglected to mention United’s significantly increased time in possession, though, and that their rankings in some top-line running metrics are pretty similar to last term.
So, the very fact United haven’t covered as much ground as other teams doesn’t mean a great deal in isolation. For example, their 9.9 kilometres covered while sprinting this season is slightly more than City (9.7km) and not massively under Brighton’s (10.6km), and they’ve been two of the best teams in the league in 2026-27.
However, there is arguably a link from this to the idea United have issues with intensity.
Most will look to the midfield pairing here, and understandably so. Among the 57 nominal central/defensive midfielders to play at least 90 minutes in the Premier League this term, Youri Tielemans (4.7) and Kobbie Mainoo (4.0) rank 33rd and 39th respectively for out-of-possession sprints per 90 mins. They’re both excellent footballers, and Mainoo’s start to the season has been quite impressive, though mobility and intensity aren’t aspects you’d associate with either.
United’s collective tally of out-of-possession sprints per 90 (89) is a comparable (in fact, slightly higher) figure to what they averaged under Carrick last season (86), however. When they were winning regularly in 2025-26, you’d have done well to find critics making a big deal about a perceived lack of intensity.
If they do have an issue with intensity, then, it’s probably most pertinent in the context of the team’s structure when pressing, or perhaps even their broader pressing strategy, because there has been a shift from last term.
United have proportionately deployed a high block to a greater extent than any other Premier League team this season (42%) and this is up considerably from Carrick’s time in charge last term (26%). For this to be truly effective, it generally requires a team to deploy a high line; this United side looks uneasy playing in such a way because their defence – not too dissimilar to the midfield – lacks mobility.
Their backline can’t be as high as perhaps it should be, meaning there’s more space for the midfield pairing to occupy between attackers pressing high and defenders dropping deep. It’s not that United are then falling into a low block by default, but if the press is played through, gaps can open up quite quickly and it’s not surprising if the midfielders opt to retreat instead of engage.
As the graphic below highlights, only Aston Villa and Brighton (both 38%) have seen a smaller proportion of their pressures come in the middle third of the pitch than United (39%), who’ve also had the second-smallest share of pressures in their own defensive third (25%).
None of this is inherently bad on its own, of course. It all depends on context, and the introduction of Carlos Baleba – who will be fit for his debut after the international break – should give them more ‘oomph’ in the middle. But there’s a strong argument United might not be best suited to utilising a high block; we’ve noted the lack of mobility further down the pitch, but there’s also questions to be asked about how effective their press is.
As outlined, they’ve spent the greatest proportion of time in a high block among Premier League teams this term, and their 4-2-2-2 out-of-possession shape reflects a fairly aggressive man-to-man press. Or at least that’s presumably the intention.
There does sometimes appear to be a lack of urgency when pressing as they allow their opponents 12.1 passes before engaging with a defensive action (PPDA), which is only slightly better than the league average (12.5). Similarly, their 26 high turnovers is only the 15th most of all 20 top-flight clubs this term.
Look at the examples below: Man City’s Antoine Semenyo has several options to pass to from near his own corner flag, while Fulham goalkeeper Bernd Leno has an easy out ball with Marcus Rashford and Matheus Cunha reacting too late.
Furthermore, their midfield and backline often aren’t helped by a lack of support from higher up. United rank bottom – comfortably so – for total out-of-possession runs tracking an opponent without the ball (188) and as a proportion of out-of-possession runs (32.4%). So, when the opposition have managed to get around United’s press, it would seem as though their forwards lack gusto in falling back.
It doesn’t take much to get past the press, and then teams often have almost a free run at the United defence.
Misfortune and Waste
While there may be justified cause for concern in some areas, it’s impossible to look at United’s season to date and not acknowledge they’ve been unlucky.
They were pegged back against Everton at the death thanks to something close to a once-in-a-lifetime strike from Ainsley Maitland-Niles; Fulham’s opener in the 1-1 draw was an own goal; City’s winner in the derby was incorrectly allowed to stand, and United have hit the woodwork more times than anyone else (6), which is also at least double every other club bar Sunderland (5).
Defensively, they’ve conceded more goals (8) than xG tells us they should have (6.8), with their 1.2 differential the sixth biggest in the division – Lisandro Martínez’s own goal will account for much of that. Compare this, for instance, to high-flying Brighton, who’ve conceded only five from 8.7 xG.
Their 53 shots faced is also the same as Arsenal and bettered only by Nottingham Forest (52). The issue is, the average xG value of the shots United have faced is 0.13, with only Brighton (0.15) and Sunderland (0.14) conceding higher quality chances on average. Contributing to this will be the fact that they’ve faced the third-biggest proportion of shots inside the box (71.7%).
That largely reflects what’s been said about United’s midfield and backline being fairly passive. Make no mistake, though, a certain degree of defensive frailty can be masked by an attack that’s delivering the goods in front of goal – theirs hasn’t.
On the surface, the numbers are encouraging. They’ve had 18 more shots (113) than anyone else and 22 more touches in the opposition’s box (182) than any other side. Plus, their 9.1 non-penalty xG is bettered by only Brighton (10.7), Man City (10.5) and Brentford (9.11).
But dig a little deeper and problems emerge.
Firstly, their average shot distance is the second furthest from goal of all teams (17.9 metres). Unsurprisingly, then, the average xG value of their non-penalty attempts is just 0.08, the joint-second lowest in the division.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystSo, not only are the shots they’re taking often low value, United are also proving wasteful, with their underperformance of 2.1 in relation to non-pen xG the sixth most – three of the five teams with worse records here are in the relegation zone.
The 5-2 Ipswich win aside, United’s attack just hasn’t looked quite right.
There has certainly been an element of them lacking a focal point. Benjamin Sesko has only been fit enough to play 76 Premier League minutes due to injury, and he looks set for another spell on the sidelines.
It shouldn’t be forgotten he was actually used extensively off the bench by Carrick last term, so he may not have started many of the first five games even if he was fit. But he proved so effective in the second half of last season that, given the context of United’s games this term, it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t have been useful against low blocks if he’d been fully fit. His condition has been a source of frustration, then.
Upsetting the Established Order
The biggest change in personnel has been the return of Rashford after 18 months on loan at Aston Villa and Barcelona.
Carrick’s desire to put him back in the team has required Cunha to operate more centrally, which hasn’t really worked. The Brazilian’s at his best with space to run into, but he’s found himself dropping deep and moving away from goal to get involved – this means often operating with his back to goal and dropping into zones Bruno Fernandes likes to occupy.
The position Cunha’s playing in obviously has a lot to do with this, but so does the game state of United’s matches. As we’ve touched upon, they’ve spent a lot of time in a high block, but on top of that they’ve had more time building up against a low block than any other team. These aren’t the ideal conditions for Cunha as the focal point in attack.
Rashford has performed reasonably well on the left, but without a goal or assist in five league games, it’s understandable some might ask if he’s done enough to justify Carrick chucking him straight back into the team to the detriment of Cunha, a key player when things were going well last term.
Bryan Mbeumo would seem the most logical fit in the centre of the United attack if Sesko isn’t around. He played through the middle frequently last term and at Brentford to good effect, and he offers the kind of off-ball movement that could trouble even deep defences. Out on the right this term, he hasn’t been especially effective.
Had Amad Diallo been fit over the first five matchdays, we’d probably have seen more variation between the players in attack. The tricky Ivorian has been a big miss because he’s one of few attackers United have who’s tidy in tight spaces and is happy to run at full-backs.
Otherwise, United have largely resorted to hopeful crosses from out wide. Their 104 open-play crosses is 17 more than any other team this season, which is particularly curious when you consider the only player you’d think would be worth consistently aiming deliveries towards (Sesko) has played just 16.8% of their Premier League minutes.
There are plenty of supporters who feel Shea Lacey could’ve been used more in the league, particularly with Amad out injured. He’s their most comparable player in style to Amad, yet he’s played just 10 minutes in the top flight this term.
United’s lack of potency down the right also isn’t helped by Diogo Dalot’s cautiousness. Despite the team’s territorial dominance this season, he’s averaged only the 22nd most over/underlapping runs per 90 (1.6) among full-backs to play at least 90 minutes this term.
Nevertheless, there’s little doubt the disruption in attack caused by Rashford coming back into the team and the injuries to Sesko and Amad has had knock-on effects, while certain tactical quirks don’t look ideal. On top of all that, it’s fair to say they’ve been unlucky at times too.
Whether the changes we’ve seen have been deliberate tweaks or specific to the circumstances of United’s games, it’s probably still too early to tell. But that doesn’t mean considerable damage hasn’t already been done.
Confidence can be incredibly difficult to rebuild, regardless of any injustice or misfortune being the cause of its dismantling.
United aren’t as poor as their results suggest, but the longer Carrick fails to get their form back on track, the less likely it is he’ll be allowed to.
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