By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-10-29 21:22:16 | Updated at 2024-11-05 21:04:30
6 days ago
The Opta supercomputer backs Erik ten Hag to get the win he needs this weekend. Look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Old Trafford with our Manchester United vs Brentford prediction and preview.
Manchester United vs Brentford Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer gives Manchester United a 54.3% win probability.
- United have won each of their last five home league games against Brentford.
- Thomas Frank’s next loss will be his 50th defeat in the Premier League.
Erik ten Hag has lived to fight another day, but anything other than a positive result for Manchester United when they host Brentford on Saturday will surely leave the Dutchman hanging onto his job by a thread.
United’s decision-makers reportedly met over the international break following a difficult start to the season, though Ten Hag remains in post.
A bore draw with Aston Villa last time out ensured United responded somewhat to the 3-0 hammering by Tottenham in their last home game. The league match before that at Old Trafford was also a 3-0 defeat, with Liverpool running away with it.
Saturday’s clash sees 14th (United) take on 10th (Brentford). The Red Devils have the worst difference between goals (five) and expected goals (11.1) in the Premier League this season, netting around six goals fewer than their xG suggests. They also have the biggest difference between goals conceded (eight) and xG against (11.5), conceding between 3-4 goals fewer than expected, suggesting their situation could be even worse were if not for André Onana’s efforts.
United average 0.7 goals per game in the Premier League this season (five in seven games), compared to three goals per game across all other competitions this term (12 goals in seven games) – albeit that is obviously inflated by the 7-0 defeat to third-tier Barnsley in the EFL Cup.
Ten Hag’s team have won just one of their last six Premier League games (D2 L3), failing to score in any of their last three. They last went four league games without a goal back in April 1989; it really has been a dismal start to 2024-25.
That being said, they have reason to be optimistic. Brentford have lost all three of their Premier League away games this season, last beginning a league campaign with four straight losses on the road in 1961-62, when they lost their first nine in the third tier.
Thomas Frank’s next loss, meanwhile, will be his 50th defeat in the Premier League, which is more than any other manager in the competition since his first match in August 2021.
Bryan Mbeumo has been a standout performer for the Bees. He has scored six goals in his seven Premier League games this season, netting in each of his last three appearances. His next goal or assist will see him become the first Brentford player to register 50 Premier League goal involvements (currently 28 goals, 21 assists).
Christian Eriksen starred for Brentford after he returned to action in early 2022, only seven months on from collapsing on the pitch at Euro 2020. The United midfielder has come in for some criticism lately, yet he has been involved in six goals in his last five games in all competitions (three goals, three assists). Indeed, only Alejandro Garnacho (seven) has been involved in more goals for United this season than the Dane.
Brentford could welcome Mathias Jensen back from a calf injury that’s kept him out for over a month, while Mikkel Damsgaard is a doubt after withdrawing from international duty. Otherwise, Frank is still without several long-term absentees including Aaron Hickey, Rico Henry, Yoane Wissa and Igor Thiago.
Ten Hag has plenty of injury concerns of his own. Kobbie Mainoo withdrew from England duty and is set for several weeks out, while Manuel Ugarte sustained a hamstring injury while away with Uruguay and faces a late fitness test. Leny Yoro remains a few weeks away from making his debut, Tyrell Malacia and Luke Shaw are both still absent, and this game comes too soon for Harry Maguire and Mason Mount. However, Garnacho and Amad Diallo are both in contention after withdrawing from their respective international squads, and Noussair Mazraoui has surprisingly been passed fit less than two weeks on from having a minor heart procedure.
Manchester United vs Brentford Head-to-Head
United have won each of their last five home league games against Brentford by an aggregate score of 13-2, with their last such defeat coming in February 1937.
Having won four of their first six league meetings with United between 1933 and 1937 (D1 L1), Brentford have won just one of their last 10 against the Red Devils (D2 L7).
That victory was a memorable 4-0 home win over Ten Hag’s United in August 2022.
Four of the five goals scored in the two Premier League meetings between these sides last season came in second-half stoppage time (three for United, one for Brentford).
Manchester United vs Brentford Prediction
Given their miserable record at Old Trafford, it’s no surprise that Brentford are the underdogs for this one.
The Bees came out on top in just 23.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations ahead of this match.
United, meanwhile, have a 54.3% win probability, with the likelihood of a draw coming in at 22.2%.
Manchester United vs Brentford Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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