By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-11 10:41:04 | Updated at 2026-09-19 00:25:49
1 week ago
With the first Manchester derby of the season taking place at Old Trafford, can Enzo Maresca maintain his perfect record since succeeding Pep Guardiola? We look ahead to Saturday’s clash with our Man Utd vs Man City prediction and preview.
Man Utd vs Man City: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester City favourites for the derby, albeit not overwhelmingly – they have a 45.1% win probability, compared to Manchester United’s 30.6%.
- Michael Carrick could become only the third Man Utd manager to win his first two league games against Man City, after A.H. Albut in 1895 and John Bentley in 1913.
- Erling Haaland has scored eight Premier League goals against Man Utd, with only Mohamed Salah (13) and Alan Shearer (10) netting more.
Manchester City’s performances have not been perfect this season, but with three Premier League victories in the bag in addition to a 2-0 win at Porto to kickstart their UEFA Champions League campaign in the week, Enzo Maresca will be delighted with their results.
Their 100% Premier League record will be tested on Sunday, though, as Maresca gets his first managerial experience of the Manchester derby at Old Trafford.
United have endured a mixed start to 2026-27, with a loss and a win against Hull and Ipswich respectively on the first two matchdays, followed by conceding a last-gasp equaliser against Everton last weekend.
The Red Devils bounced back in their Champions League opener on Thursday, though, beating tournament debutants Sabah 4-0 at Old Trafford.
United have looked bright going forward this term, with Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes already getting among the goals in the Premier League. Across the first three matchdays, the Red Devils had the most shots (68) and accumulated the highest expected goals tally (7.3 xG) of any team in the division. In addition, their 19 shots on target were only matched by City.
But defensively, there is an urgent need for improvement. United have conceded twice in all three of their Premier League games in 2026-27 – they have only previously started three league campaigns by shipping multiple goals in four straight matches, in 1926-27 (first 5), 1930-31 (12) and 1969-70 (4).
With United impressing in attack and looking shaky in defence, the Old Trafford faithful have at least seen plenty of entertainment in recent months.
Since Carrick returned for his second stint in charge of United in January, they have won nine of their 10 home Premier League games (L1), scoring at least twice in each victory. They have won their last three despite conceding twice each time, last conceding multiple goals in four consecutive home league games in January 1972.
Carrick’s first Premier League game upon returning to the United dugout was at home to City, and goals from Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu completed a morale-boosting 2-0 win. He could become only the third Red Devils manager to win both of his first two league games against City, after A.H. Albut in 1895 and John Bentley in 1913.
Following a nervy 1-0 victory over Coventry City on MD3, Man City could win their first four games at the start of a Premier League season for the seventh time, which would be the outright most by any club. They have only won the title in two of the previous six instances in which they did so, however (in 2011-12 and 2023-24).
Erling Haaland was on target in their last league outing, before helping himself to a brace versus Porto in midweek.
The Norwegian will be relishing this derby matchup, as he has eight goals in seven Premier League appearances versus United, including a hat-trick when he first faced them in 2022 – only Mohamed Salah (13) and Alan Shearer (10) have more goals against the Red Devils in the competition.
Only two of Haaland’s Manchester derby goals have come at Old Trafford, though City have never failed to beat their neighbours when he has been on the scoresheet.
United, meanwhile, will hope Marcus Rashford can reprise his previous heroics against City. He has scored on his last two Premier League appearances against them, for the Red Devils in March 2024 and Aston Villa in April 2025. That is as many goals as he managed in his previous nine meetings with City.
Rashford has played in 22 Manchester derbies, and an appearance on Sunday would make City the team he has faced most often outright as a United player (also 22 against West Ham). He has six goals for Man Utd against City, only netting more versus Leicester City (8) and Liverpool (7).
There could also be a landmark appearance for left-back Luke Shaw, whose next outing will be his 300th for United. Shaw didn’t feature against Sabah on Thursday, but Carrick said it was due to managing his minutes after a bout of cramp against Everton.
Shaw has started 41 Premier League games in a row, with Harry Maguire the last outfielder to start more consecutive Premier League games for the club (72 between August 2019 and May 2021).
Man Utd vs Man City Head-to-Head
Manchester United won this exact fixture last season 2-0, but they have not beaten their rivals in successive home games in the Premier League since the reign of Alex Ferguson, with three straight wins between 2008-09 and 2010-11.
City have struggled in recent derbies, though. They have won just one of their last four Premier League games against United (D1 L2), after winning five of the previous six (L1).
And Maresca also has a mixed record against Man Utd. During his time as Chelsea boss, the Blues won one game, drew one and lost one versus the Red Devils, with their only victory coming on home soil.
City’s last two managers, Guardiola and Manuel Pellegrini, both won their first Premier League derby against Man Utd. Only two of the previous nine coaches to lead City in the competition (Sven-Goran Eriksson and Kevin Keegan) had done so.
Man Utd vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer favours Man City going into this game, but not by an overwhelming margin.
Maresca’s side are assigned a 44.2% chance of victory, compared to United’s 31.6%. The remaining 24.2% of pre-match simulations finished level.
Man Utd vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Man Utd: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Kobbie Mainoo, Youri Tielemans, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Marcus Rashford, Matheus Cunha.
Head coach: Michael Carrick
Man City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Josko Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Iliman Ndiaye, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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