By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-09-11 14:23:57 | Updated at 2026-09-18 21:51:47
1 week ago
Ahead of Sunday’s Manchester derby at Old Trafford in the Premier League, we identify six elements that could be decisive.
Sunday’s Manchester derby will have a slightly different feel.
For the first time in over 10 years, Pep Guardiola won’t be in the Manchester City dugout for it, with this to be Enzo Maresca’s bow in the derby.
The Italian has enjoyed a decent start in charge, winning each of his first three Premier League games, but this will be his first major top-flight test, and against a Manchester United side already frustrated to be playing catch-up.
Here, we look at several facets that may decide the outcome of the contest.
City Give Up Chances
Having brushed off that rather chastening 3-0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal, Manchester City have started the season well in terms of results, racking up three wins in the Premier League and beginning their Champions League campaign with a 2-0 success at Porto.
Beyond the results, though, City haven’t looked infallible.
United will take particular encouragement from City’s 1-0 win over Coventry last weekend.
City had plenty of joy in attack, sure, wasting several opportunities. But at the other end they were fortunate to not concede. Taiwo Awoniyi spurned a gift of chance early on; Jack Rudoni’s close-range header was saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma; Ellis Simms was denied by the keeper’s face late on.
Across their five games in all competitions this season, City have afforded their opponents 3+ ‘big chances’ (opportunities from which a team would ordinarily be expected to score) on three occasions, the exceptions being Bournemouth (1) and Porto (0).
But even against Porto, the Portuguese side may not have managed a single shot on target, but there were numerous moments when they worried City. The main issues for Porto were poor final passes and difficulty staying onside; they were caught offside seven times having only done so five times across their previous seven games in major European competition.
Given the upheaval City went through over the summer, it’s only natural that they have imperfections, but the signs suggest they will afford United – who, heading into the weekend, rank top for shots (68) and second for xG (7.3) in the Premier League this term – chances on Sunday.
United’s Latest Nemesis
Erling Haaland scores lots of goals against Man Utd.
Erling Haaland scores lots of goals during the opening weeks of the season.
Highlighting Haaland as a probable threat to United isn’t a hot take, we freely admit, but when considering potentially decisive aspects ahead of the derby, how could we ignore him?
He’s a man for the big occasion, so unsurprisingly he boasts a fine record in the derby.
In seven Premier League games against United, Haaland has scored eight goals. Only Mohamed Salah (13) and Alan Shearer (10) have netted more against them in the competition.
Haaland has only scored more Premier League goals against Crystal Palace, Wolves (both 10) and West Ham (11), and his 7.1 xG vs United is his third best against a single opponent.
On top of that, Haaland typically starts seasons well, as the chart below from his first four Premier League seasons reflects.
August (24) and September (16) are his two most prolific months of the year for Premier League goals, and he heads into the weekend having scored in each of his past three games in all competitions.
If there’s one omen United fans can look to, it’s that Haaland has scored just the two goals at Old Trafford in the league – he’s also only played three times there, though, so it’s hardly a dismal record.
Either way, keep him quiet and United’s chances improve considerably. If that wasn’t obvious.
Kobbie Mainoo vs Elliot Anderson
Those with an interest in England matters will likely have an eye on two of the national team’s most promising young midfielders, who will go head-to-head on Sunday.
Elliot Anderson had a big summer, playing an important role for England as they finished third at the World Cup, and securing a massive move to City.
Kobbie Mainoo, on the other hand, was the only outfield player in the England squad not to play a single minute in North America, a fact that mystified United fans who adore him.
But Mainoo has enjoyed an excellent start to the new domestic season. Previously, some had doubts about his physical capacity and defensive awareness, but he seems to have made strides under Carrick and taken his game to another level.
He’s harder to knock off the ball, tougher in duels, and just seems to be everywhere in United’s midfield.
His 68.2% success rate in duels is the sixth best among midfielders to play more than 90 minutes this season, while his 10.1 possession regains per 90 puts him second among the same group. He remains dependable as ever on the ball, too, ranking 6/28 for pass completion rate under pressure (90.3%) among defensive/central midfielders to tally at least 50 such passes.
Mainoo then controlled proceedings against Sabah in the Champions League on Thursday, having the most touches (93), passes (83) and accurate passes (81) despite coming off after 64 minutes.
Of course, Anderson is a quality player in his own right and did little wrong during the World Cup. He’s also enjoyed a seamless start to life at City, quickly taking over command of their midfield from the departed Rodri.
He’s combative, an excellent passer and a confident carrier. For instance, among midfielders to play more than 90 minutes this term, he ranks seventh for tackle attempts per 90 (3.1) and top for passes per 90 (121.4), progressive carries per 90 (19.5) and line-breaking passes (76).
For Anderson, Sunday will be his first blockbuster Premier League game at City, a chance to position himself as the top flight’s leading midfielder. Whereas Mainoo, who’s remained quiet about any possible World Cup frustration, has the opportunity to let his feet do the talking against a direct positional rival.
It ought to make for compelling viewing.
Bruno Fernandes or Rayan Cherki: Who Will Be Most Influential?
If the Mainoo v Anderson duel could determine which side has the ascendancy in midfield, the outcome of the match may be swung by whomever of Bruno Fernandes and Rayan Cherki is able to exert the most influence.
Fernandes and Cherki were the Premier League’s two standout creators in 2025-26.
While Fernandes’ totals largely dwarfed those of his rival, when adjusted to a per-90 basis, their respective outputs were a lot closer.
One metric where Cherki actually came out comfortably on top was expected assists (xA) per 90 (0.44 to Fernandes’ 0.36), highlighting how frequently the Frenchman found teammates in dangerous positions.
Cherki’s 2026-27 has begun impressively as well. Clearly we are still talking about small sample sizes here, but his 0.69 xA per 90 is easily the highest of any player to feature for at least 90 mins this term, and he’s averaged 5.1 chances created per 90 across his 175 minutes on the pitch.
He has two assists already, both against Bournemouth, and he also scored twice in the win over Crystal Palace. He’s going into the derby a man in form.
Fernandes’ influence has been felt slightly less so far this term from a creative perspective, though that’s probably partly because United aren’t quite so reliant on him to provide impetus from the middle with Youri Tielemans now in tow and Mainoo beginning the season excellently.
The flip side to that is he’s averaging 5.0 shots per 90 in the league, up from 2.5 in 2025-26; it’s early days of course, but potentially a sign of things to come with him being more of a goal threat. After all, he has already scored four times in all competitions.
Admittedly, his only Premier League goal involvements this season came against Ipswich, when he scored a hat-trick and got an assist, but we all know Fernandes can hurt any opposition.
Can City Nullify United’s Threat in Behind?
If there’s one particular aspect of United’s makeup that City will be conscious of, it’s the threat they pose in behind.
Whether United start Benjamin Sesko or Matheus Cunha up top, Cunha or Marcus Rashford out wide, their attack will be stacked with players who can pose a danger with runs in behind the defence.
That may be even more pertinent against a City side who can leave space behind their defence. On average, they begin their passing sequences 44.2 metres from their own goal – only two teams start higher than that – and they’re the team who’ve spent the smallest proportion of time in a low block this term (9%).
United, on the other hand, are second only to Brighton (156) for runs in behind (142). As a proportion of all in-possession runs, United rank top in the Premier League (33.0%).
Bryan Mbeumo is their most active player in this regard. In fact, his 49 runs in behind is more than any other player in the Premier League this season.
City will presumably adapt slightly to accommodate for United’s biggest threats, but at the same time they’re unlikely to completely change their system and mentality as they’ll be confident of dictating the game as normal.
United should have some opportunities to play to their strengths, then. They’ll need to pick their moments wisely, though, otherwise they may fall into the same offside traps as Porto.
Will City Focus Attacks Down United’s Left?
Manchester United have conceded two goals in each of their three Premier League games this season; while you probably wouldn’t look at any area of their starting XI as being completely terrible, they do have weaknesses.
They have looked particularly susceptible on their left side.
Luke Shaw had an excellent 2025-26 season, playing in every single one of United’s Premier League matches – that was a very surprising feat given his prior injury issues.
But he’s not had a particularly strong start to 2026-27.
He was left for dead by Abdul Fatawu in the lead-up to Ipswich’s first goal, and then against Everton last weekend, he tucked in far too narrowly and was way too slow closing down Tyrique George for the winger’s strike to make it 1-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Of the four non-set-piece goals United have conceded in the Premier League, half have come down Shaw’s side – City may well focus their attention on attacking down that flank. After all, they are crossing more frequently in open play (13.7 per game) this season than in any of the previous three campaigns.
It must be pointed out, however, that Shaw has looked pretty lively going forward, perhaps due to the return of Marcus Rashford. His 2.9 open-play crosses per 90 this term is the left-back’s best return since 2021-22 (3.0) and massively up on 1.2 last term, while his 1.8 open-play chances created per 90 is higher than ever in the Premier League; his 0.4 in 2025-26 was the lowest of his career.
Shaw was rested for United’s 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah. Patrick Dorgu wasn’t entirely convincing defensively while deputising at left-back; whoever plays there on Sunday could be in for a busy evening.
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