By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-21 14:54:58 | Updated at 2024-11-21 19:21:46
4 hours ago
We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Manchester City vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Can the champions get back on track?
Manchester City vs Tottenham: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are the favourites with Opta supercomputer, victorious in 59.5% of data-led sims.
- The reigning Premier League champions have lost their last four games in all competitions.
- City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham.
Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering side – the four-time reigning Premier League champions – have lost their last four matches in all competitions.
It is the first time in Guardiola’s managerial career he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.
A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Spurs at the end of October kick-started City’s poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.
With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds.
Though with Liverpool not back in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team who surprisingly lost 2-1 at home to Ipswich Town before the international break.
Saturday’s clash sees two of the league’s top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second with Brentford.
City have registered the highest expected goals (22.3) in the league, with Ange Postecoglou’s team recording the second-highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect some entertainment.
City have occasionally taken a while to get going in recent seasons, but they have never quite looked so short of form at this stage of a campaign.
Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (2-1 versus Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run that included a home defeat to Tottenham.
The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped. Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri and lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%.
Spurs, meanwhile, have only won two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no team have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).
Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.
As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).
Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).
Dejan Kulusevski could be crucial if Spurs are to have any success against a City defence that has been unusually leaky this season. The Swede has created the most chances overall (30) and from open play (25) in the Premier League this term.
Manchester City vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Man City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.
Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.
Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Spurs than they have against any other opponent.
Manchester City vs Tottenham Prediction
Man City are made the big favourites by Opta’s supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.
Spurs’ win probability is 20.2%, while the likelihood of a draw that would still dent City’s title hopes is narrowly higher at 20.3%.
Manchester City vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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