Manila and Beijing can still choose cooperation over conflict

The Philippines’ coming midterm elections in May, the incoming Donald Trump administration and last year’s violent maritime clashes may keep bilateral ties between Manila and Beijing volatile. Leaders on both sides interested in easing tensions and preventing conflict have their work cut out for them.

Luckily, economics could bind the two countries together while improved diplomatic efforts can moderate bellicosity. As the Philippines and China mark the 50th anniversary of official ties, both sides must work harder to manage their differences and seek more common ground.

Last year was the “most violent” and “most dangerous moment” between the two sides in the South China Sea, according to experts interviewed by the Post. On June 17, 2024, a clash resulted in one Filipino sailor losing his thumb in a physical altercation. The Philippines has shifted from an emphasis on dialogue, confidence-building and exploring practical cooperation under the previous administration to aggressive transparency under the current one.

Meanwhile, Beijing has used water cannon against Filipino vessels. There are reports of air encounters and the number of Chinese boats in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone has reportedly spiked. A Chinese coastguard vessel, dubbed a “monster” ship, is a regular fixture in choppy waters, sailing ever closer to the Philippine shore. The Second Thomas, Sabina and Scarborough shoals have become tense flashpoints.

The intense media coverage of bilateral maritime disputes has hardened public views and complicated diplomatic efforts. Linking China-friendly ties with the previous leadership has made negotiations difficult as the Marcos and Duterte clans go from political allies to bitter foes. The midterm elections may heighten emotions as opportunistic politicians whip nationalist sentiment to court votes.

Stronger guard rails should be put in place to ensure the worrying inertia will be kept in check. A provisional arrangement reached last July that allowed for resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal can be a template that can be expanded to other contested areas in the strategic waterway.