Market Raises 2025 Inflation Forecast to 5% in Brazil, Marking 13th Consecutive Week of Increases

The Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus Report, released on Monday, reveals a concerning trend in the country’s economic outlook. Economists have raised their inflation projections for 2025 for the thirteenth consecutive week, nudging the forecast from 4.99% to 5%.

This persistent upward revision signals growing unease about Brazil’s economic stability in the coming years. The report, based on data collected up to last Friday, shows that market analysts expect inflation to remain above the central bank’s target.

For 2026, they increased their median expectation for official inflation from 4.03% to 4.05%, while maintaining the 2027 forecast at 3.90%. Brazil’s official inflation index, the IPCA, closed 2024 at 4.83%, exceeding the upper limit of the central bank’s target range.

This overshoot occurred despite the bank’s efforts to control price increases through monetary policy adjustments. The Selic rate, Brazil‘s benchmark interest rate, is projected to remain high.

Analysts expect it to stay at 15.00% by the end of 2025 and 12.00% in 2026. However, they raised their 2027 forecast from 10.00% to 10.25%, indicating expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy.

Market Raises 2025 Inflation Forecast to 5% in Brazil, Marking 13th Consecutive Week of Increases. (Photo Internet reproduction)

Economic growth projections remain modest. The market maintains its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.02%, with expectations for 2026 and 2027 staying at 1.80% and 2.00%, respectively. These figures suggest a cautious outlook on Brazil’s economic recovery.

Currency forecasts also reflect economic uncertainty. Analysts kept their end-of-2025 dollar projection at R$6.00. For 2026, they raised it from R$5.90 to R$6.00, and slightly increased the 2027 forecast from R$5.80 to R$5.82.

These projections paint a picture of an economy grappling with inflationary pressures and moderate growth. The consistent upward revisions in inflation forecasts highlight the challenges facing Brazil’s economic policymakers in the coming years.