'Maximum pressure': What's in store for Iran in 2025?

"Iran has found itself in a difficult situation for a long time and knows that there is no other way than to change." This is how Iran expert Arash Azizi sums up the Middle Eastern nation's current predicament.

The leadership of the Islamic Republic needs to change its policies and reach an agreement with Western nations in order to overcome international isolation and economic collapse, said Azizi, a historian and lecturer at the Clemson University in the US.

Iran's clerical theocratic regime is "concerned about the return of the policy of 'Maximum pressure' under the Trump administration," he told DW.

Donald Trump will return to the White House on January 20 and his Iran policy could further heighten the pressure on the rulers in Tehran. Tehran's rulers have had an eventful year so far, with still some months to go until they can mark the beginning of a fresh one: the New Year is at the start of the spring season in Iran which relies on the Solar Hijri calendar.

The political situation has prompted many Iranians to wonder if their leaders are going to face a particularly harsh winter this time around.

Dramatic nine months

The last nine months have been characterized by a series of dramatic events for Iran.

In spring, then-President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner and potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash.

His unexpected death triggered early presidential elections, which were surprisingly won by Massud Peseshkian, considered a moderate politician.

In the summer, the targeted killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh shook Tehran.

Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by Germany, the US and several other countries.

Haniyeh's death eliminated a key figure in the "axis of resistance" against Israel and Western countries. This was followed by the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the fall of President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria, events that resulted in the collapse of the said axis.

"In my opinion, it is quite possible that the leadership of the Islamic Republic is trying to reduce tensions with the West," Azizi said.

He pointed to a recent article written by former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Foreign Affairs magazine to support his view.

In the piece, which was published before the collapse of the Assad regime and titled "How Iran sees the path to peace," Zarif emphasized Tehran's willingness to negotiate with the West, including the US.

"Regarding Israel, Zarif argues that Iran will accept any agreement that the Palestinians themselves reach. This is a significant point," Azizi underlined.

When asked whether Iran's leadership could reconsider its hostility towards Israel, Azizi said, "The question is how to enforce this domestically. It contradicts the stance of Supreme Leader Khamenei and his lifelong anti-Israeli position."

It is now important to see "how President Trump and the Israeli prime minister will react to this moment of weakness for the Islamic Republic," Azizi added.

Nuclear weapons to secure the regime?

The setbacks suffered by Iran and its allies in recent months have reignited a debate in the country about military deterrence, including some calling for the development of nuclear weapons.

In early December, Ahmad Naderi, a member of parliament from Tehran, declared that it was time to carry out a nuclear weapons test.

Concerned about an escalation of tensions, Germany, France and the UK held talks with Iran at the end of November about limiting its nuclear program. "They were talks about holding talks," Cornelius Adebahr, a political analyst based in Berlin, told DW.

"It is a necessity to have these talks before Trump takes office. Once Trump is in office, he could feel under pressure in one way or another. There are voices advising him to crack down," he added. 

Having a plan, or at least the outlines of a plan, would be helpful for the Europeans, Adebahr said.

'Concern for peace in society'

A deal with the western countries is not the only challenge facing the current government in Iran.

There have so far been no solutions to the myriad of internal problems facing the country, particularly the ongoing dispute with Islamic hardliners over a stricter law on women's mandatory headscarf, or hijab.

The controversial law, which was approved by the parliament in September 2023, levies harsher punishments for women and young girls who refuse to wear the hijab. They could face heavy fines, denial of public services, bans on leaving the country and, in extreme cases, prison sentences.

The law sparked outrage and anger across the country, forcing Iranian authorities to pause the process of implementing the law.

Hardliners, however, have been piling pressure on the government to immediately enforce the contentious legislation.

"The political system is aware that society has become more mature in recent years, especially after the nationwide protests under the slogan 'Woman, Life, Freedom.' The previous methods of oppression and intimidation are no longer effective," said Saba Alaleh, a sociopolitical psychoanalyst.

"The new law promotes violence against women and society as a whole. It targets the personal integrity of citizens and violates their right to free choice and self-determined decisions."

Even an adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei has criticized the new law. "We don't need such a law, at most we need cultural persuasion," Ali Larijani was quoted as saying.

President Pezeshkian also expressed criticism and emphasized in an interview with state television that his government was not prepared to implement this law, stressing the need for "peace in society."

The president and his advisers seem to realize that provoking society with such a law, which could spark mass protests, at this moment of weakness could be extremely dangerous for the Islamic Republic.

This article was originally written in German.