By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-06-17 13:55:40 | Updated at 2026-06-17 17:32:53
3 hours ago
After these sides both won their opener, who will take charge of Group A at the FIFA World Cup? We look ahead to Friday’s clash with our Mexico vs South Korea prediction and preview.
Mexico vs South Korea: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer expects Mexico to make it back-to-back wins as they overcame South Korea in a convincing 49.1% of pre-match simulations.
- South Korea could win their opening two matches at a World Cup for the first time in history.
- Raúl Jiménez has scored in his last two matches against South Korea.
Mexico and South Korea will both hope to seize control of Group A at the World Cup when they clash on Friday at Guadalajara Stadium.
Co-hosts Mexico breezed past nine-man South Africa with a 2-0 win in the tournament opener, thanks to goals from Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez. Yaya Sithole and Themba Zwane were both sent off for Bafana Bafana.
Aided by their numerical advantage, Mexico found a teammate with 89.8% of their passes against South Africa (467/520). That marked their highest pass completion rate in a World Cup match on record (since 1966).
The victory for Javier Aguirre’s side did come at a cost, though. Captain and key centre-back César Montes was dismissed in second-half stoppage time after being somewhat harshly adjudged to have denied Khuliso Mudau a goal-scoring opportunity.
At the other end of the pitch, Jiménez will be expected to deliver again. The 35-year-old has scored in each of his last two appearances against South Korea, albeit both goals came in friendlies (November 2020 and September 2025).
Jiménez and Quiñones could also both become the first Mexican player to score on each of their first two World Cup starts.
Further history could await El Tri, too. Mexico have won their last two World Cup games (MD3 in 2022, MD1 in 2026) but they have never managed three consecutive victories in the tournament.
However, Aguirre’s men have won only one of their three previous matches played at the Guadalajara Stadium, a 2-0 victory against the United States in an October 2024 friendly. The other two games, both against Ecuador, ended in a 2-1 defeat in September 2010, and a 1-1 draw in October 2025.
South Korea will head into the game with confidence as well after Friday’s 2-1 comeback win over Czechia. Hwang In-Beom cancelled out Ladislav Krejcí’s opener before Oh Hyeon-Gyu delivered the winner 10 minutes from time at the same stadium they return to in Guadalajara.
Having teed up Oh’s decisive finish, Hwang became South Korea’s third player to record a goal and an assist in a World Cup game. He joined Choi Soon-Ho (vs Italy in 1986) and current South Korea boss Hong Myung-Bo (vs Spain in 1994).
Lee Kang-In also impressed against Czechia. The Paris Saint-Germain forward became the first player since Germany’s Pierre Littbarski in 1982 against Austria to complete 5+ dribbles (5), post a 100% pass completion rate (38/38), and assist a goal in a World Cup match.
Hong’s side will now be looking to win their opening two World Cup matches for the first time. However, they have not won back-to-back matches in this competition at all since 2002, when they beat Portugal and Italy before going on to finish fourth.
Aguirre will know his team must be mindful of Son Heung-Min, who has scored two goals in his last three matches against Mexico, including one at the 2018 edition of this tournament.
Son had six shots without scoring in South Korea’s opener, however, before being removed for Friday’s hero, Oh. The former Tottenham forward is still two goals shy of matching the all-time scoring record for his country after failing to add to his 56 international strikes.
Edson Álvarez will likely be tasked with dealing with Son and South Korea’s attack as Montes serves a one-match suspension for his red card in Mexico’s opener.
Mexico vs South Korea Head-to-Head
A repeat of previous encounters will put Mexico in total control of Group A.
El Tri have won both previous World Cup matches against South Korea, claiming a 3-1 victory at France ’98 before a 2-1 triumph in Russia eight years ago.
South Korea have also never faced a host country at the World Cup, though they have failed to win all three past meetings with Concacaf opposition (D1 L2).
Mexico have won all five of their tournament matches against Asian opposition, scoring two or more times in each of their last four such victories.
Mexico vs South Korea Prediction
Both teams will expect to qualify from Group A after their opening wins. Mexico progressed in 98.8% of Opta’s tournament predictions, while South Korea reached the round of 32 in 94.4%.
But the Opta supercomputer leant towards a Mexico victory in this encounter as Aguirre’s side came out on top in 49.1% of 25,000 pre-match simulations.
South Korea were afforded a 24.3% chance of winning in the same data-led simulations, while the draw accounted for 26.6% of scenarios.
Mexico vs South Korea Squads
Mexico: Raúl Rangel, Carlos Acevedo, Guillermo Ochoa, Jorge Sánchez, César Montes, Johan Vásquez, Israel Reyes, Mateo Chávez, Jesús Gallardo, Edson Álvarez, Érik Lira, Luis Romo, Álvaro Fidalgo, Orbelín Pineda, Obed Vargas, Gilberto Mora, César Huerta, Luis Chávez, Brian Gutiérrez, Raúl Jiménez, Alexis Vega, Santiago Giménez, Armando González, Julián Quiñones, Guillermo Martínez, Roberto Alvarado.
South Korea: Kim Seung-Gyu, Song Bum-Keun, Jo Hyeon-Woo, Lee Han-Beom, Lee Gi-Hyuk, Kim Min-Jae, Kim Tae-Hyeon, Lee Tae-Seok, Cho Wi-Je, Kim Moon-Hwan, Seol Young-Woo, Hwang In-Beom, Paik Seung-Ho, Lee Jae-Sung, Park Jin-Seob, Bae Jun-Ho, Lee Kang-In, Jens Castrop, Kim Jin-Gyu, Lee Dong-Gyeong, Son Heung-Min, Cho Gue-Sung, Hwang Hee-Chan, Oh Hyeon-Gyu, Yang Hyun-Jun, Eom Ji-Sung.
Mexico vs South Korea Predicted Lineups
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