The numbers were met with surprise. Surveys conducted in the famous ‘Conurbano’ of Greater Buenos Aires delivered terrible omens for Javier Milei and his entire team. The President was hoping to get his sister, chief-of-staff Karina Milei, out onto the field to “sweep” Buenos Aires Province in the midterms, but those plans now look to be complicated.
The latest survey conducted by the CB Consultora consultancy firm measured Karina’s popularity in the key battleground region, along with other leaders such as Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Sergio Massa, José Luis Espert and Diego Santilli. The results stunned those in charge of electoral preparations.
The reasons? Karina Milei has an above-average level of recognition, but between those who say they would definitely vote for her and those who could vote for her, the potential voters equated to just 35 percent of respondents. Meanwhile, those who “would never vote for her” totalled 60 percent.
“With this scenario, it is impossible to think of her as the head of the [La Libertad Avanza] list” in Buenos Aires Province, one Casa Rosada official told Perfil, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
The President looks at polls every day. A few months ago he started to receive work plans on scenarios for 2025. They know that Buenos Aires Province, the nation’s most-populous region, will be key to sustain political power towards 2027.
“Peronism is on the move. Luckily, they are still having internal elections. And Macrismo is in the same situation,” said the official.
Are there other alternatives for La Libertad Avanza? Lawmaker José Luis Espert is also in the running. The current ally of Milei reaches 42 percent, adding up all the hard and possible votes. He is close to 50 percent though in terms of those who would never vote for him.
“Having a Plan B is always key. It is to have a surprise [in reserve]. Nobody remembers the fight between the two. That's why the President gave him so much power of exposure upfront. It's to get the campaign going and Espert is ready. We will have to see if Milei ends up trusting him. Things have happened in the past – it's not that easy,” said a libertarian source in Buenos Aires Province.
On the PRO side, there is one person who is attempting to represent the pledge of electoral “unity” between Mauricio Macri's party and Milei’s La Libertad Avanza: lawmaker Diego Santilli.
Having run as ex-Buenos Aires City mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta's candidate in 2021 and competed in internal elections in 2023 (which he lost against Néstor Grindetti), Santilli has the experience. And his numbers are not bad: he could reach 45 percent between hard and possible voters, while 49 percent reject him. ‘That can be worked … there is plenty of time,’ say his supporters.
“Another alternative we have is to run separately in order to add two seats and have more deputies in a governability agreement to face what is coming in the run-up to 2027. We don't rule it out. We will have to see how Peronism plays out.” said another member of the party. “We need Cristina. But we also need an alternative path.”
And the Peronists? Cristina has 42 percent of potential votes, Sergio Massa 37 percent and yet the lowest figures fall to Máximo Kirchner, head of the Buenos Aires Province branch of the Partido Justicialista, La Cámpora leader. He reached almost 70 percent when it came to those responding that they would never vote for him.
