Since the end of the World Cup, Javier Milei has found the need to display total fury in his multiple public appearances. Over the past week, his verbal attacks against Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have led to a diplomatic crisis that has completely blown out of proportion, with Itamaraty deciding to recall its Ambassador to Argentina. Milei has come out of a self-imposed silence to take the spotlight, giving interviews to his usual group of friendly reporters and even a national broadcast to announce plans to reform the Central Bank charter where expectations were high but results fell short. To a certain extent, the appointment of Adrián Ravier as spokesman, essentially replacing the disgraced Manuel Adorni who was formally the Cabinet Chief, appears to be failing, forcing Milei out into the wild. Ravier, an economist with a technical background, admitted that the peso-dollar exchange rate could make its way to 1,800 pesos over the coming months, much to the disgust of Milei and the team led by Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo. Whether it’s for a lack of a better communicator or because Milei’s communications team under the guise of controversial political strategist Santiago Caputo willed it so, the President has become the only “pure bred” libertarian with a real voice in his government. And this is troubling because the electoral campaign has already begun and Milei’s figure has been hurting.
The escalation of a war of words with Lula leading to a full-blown diplomatic conflict is one of the clearest exhibitions of the way in which Milei plans to lead the campaign. Indeed, with Brazil going to the ballot-box in a couple of months, Lula is in a head-to-head battle against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for trying to lead a coup d’état to block Lula taking office. Argentina’s President flew to São Paulo where he was the main speaker in a political rally anointing Flavio Bolsonaro as the official presidential candidate for the Liberal Party. There, he called the standing president a “crook” and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes “bald trash.” At Pacaembu Stadium, together with the President, were his chief-of-staff and sister Karina, his Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno, and the Consul to São Paulo, Luis María Kreckler. As the insults raged on, Brazil’s Foreign Ministry recalled Ambassador Julio Bitelli, and later indicated he would remain in Brasilia until the Argentine President’s insults subside, effectively downgrading the diplomatic relationship to the rank of charge d’affaires. Lula’s government also indicated it would like Argentina’s Ambassador Guillermo Raimondi to return to his home country.
Milei is following Donald Trump’s lead, trying to erode Lula’s position ahead of the consequential vote scheduled for October 4. Indeed, as Buenos Aires and Brasilia were exchanging diplomatic blows, the United States revoked the visa of Brazil’s Ambassador in Washington, Maria Luiza Viotti. It was in apparent retaliation for the Brazilian government’s delays in approving Trump’s ambassador Daniel Perez. At the same time, the United States announced 25 percent tariffs on the largest Latin American economy, two-and-a-half times the 10 percent slapped on Argentina. Brazil indicated there was an attempt by Trump and Milei to meddle in their internal affairs in the context of the upcoming election, something neither right-wing leader appears to deny. Milei even responded by accusing Lula of interfering in the Argentine electoral process when he faced off with Sergio Massa, the pan-Peronist presidential candidate whose strategy team had worked with the Workers’ Party (PT) in Brazil.
The stakes are high, as Trump and Milei are seeking a “light-blue wave” of rightist government across Latin America. Flipping Brazil would be the major booty, particularly given that Lula and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum appear as Trump’s main antagonists in the region. A recent poll by BTG Nexus cited by correspondent Eleonora Gosman in Perfil indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro has cut Lula’s lead from seven to four percentage points in the last week, 41 percent for the incumbent compared to 37 percent for the challenger. Lula has seen his public image bounce back over the past few months, according to the AtlasIntel poll, where he remains the most popular candidate in Brazil, with 48 percent positive views and a minus four percentage point differential. In Brazil, the major issues aren’t economic but crime and drug-trafficking (61.3 percent) and corruption (57.5 percent). During his first skirmish with Trump, Lula found his position improving as a result, managing to help him when the economy appeared stagnant.
While the election in Argentina is more than a year out, the campaign started the day Argentina lost the World Cup final against Spain. Milei appears to be pursuing a “purist” strategy, much like when in 2025 he carried the campaign for the midterms by doubling down on his most aggressive, raw self. It worked, and they seem to be doing it again. AtlasIntel also put out a poll on Argentina that shows the President’s opinion figures sliding deeply, falling 28.4 percent since June 2025. Milei stands at 62.4 negative opinions, compared to 37.1 percent in favour. He is the second most popular politician in the country behind libertarian Senate caucus chief Patricia Bullrich, with 44 percent favourable opinions and 51 percent against. The red flags must be flying in the libertarian headquarters, as unemployment has quickly risen as one of the main issues for the population, tied with corruption but rising systematically since June 2025, when Milei’s image began sliding. Corruption (47.7 percent) and unemployment (46.5 percent) are followed by high prices and inflation (37.4 percent) and the general economic situation (32.5 percent) amongst the most important problems for those polled.
While the Milei administration has managed to stabilise the macro-economy and generate growth from a group of highly productive extractivist sectors, the personal economy of those living in major urban centres is under intense pressure. Seventy percent of those polled believe the economic situation is bad while 60 percent say their family’s individual situation is negative. Looking six months into the future, 56 percent believe the general economic situation will worsen while 47 percent believe their individual situation will also decay. These figures come in tandem with reports of high and rising indebtedness among the population, particularly troubling amongst those with lower incomes and highly concentrated in digital wallets outside the traditional financial system. As a growing portion of the population feels the crunch of Milei’s economic policy plan, the President’s response in one of his recent interviews was that “nobody put a gun to their head” to get those loans.
One of the recurring criticisms of the President and his political space is their cruelty and lack of empathy. Up until now, it hasn’t blocked him from winning elections. But the electorate is changing: many of those young, informally employed voters from the poorer areas of urban centres who traditionally voted for the Peronists but supported Milei in 2023 seem to be tuning out. La Libertad Avanza, the libertarian coalition, is beginning to look much more like the traditional anti-Peronist political structures, with older and richer voters, much like Mauricio Macri’s PRO. In order to win the presidency, Macri structured a coalition with the UCR Radicals and Elisa ‘Lilita’ Carrió’s Coalición Cívica, de-bourgeoisifying PRO and giving it the institutional, centrist values of the UCR and the anti-corruption mandate of the CC. It is unclear whether Milei will be able to create a coalition of those opposing the Peronists, particularly as he raises the volume and intensity of his insults. It’s not just that, though, as if the economy plays no part. And today, it is as cold as ice.
