By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-07 17:34:00 | Updated at 2024-11-15 14:39:05
1 week ago
Moisés Caicedo openly struggled with the pressure at times in his first season at Chelsea, but he now seems to have settled and is enjoying a fine 2024-25 in the Blues’ midfield.
It might’ve taken him a little while to find his feet, but Moisés Caicedo is starting to look like the midfielder Chelsea spent an initial £100 million on last year.
While he couldn’t help Chelsea avoid defeat at Anfield last weekend, a game in which most would agree Liverpool’s Curtis Jones stood out in midfield, there’s no doubt Caicedo gave the England international a run for his money in the Player of the Match stakes.
Caicedo was largely excellent, and there was a degree of poignancy to that considering the context of his opponents and much of the discourse that surrounded him at times last season.
Of course, Caicedo joined Chelsea in 2023 over Liverpool. The Ecuadorian previously commented that he felt it was “impossible to say no to Chelsea”, confirming the Reds made an offer but it was “[too] late because I wanted to play for Chelsea”.
Following that move, however, it’s no secret that Caicedo initially struggled.
“The beginning was tough for me,” he told reporters in August. “You are at a big club, the price [of the transfer], you always have to win every game. It was tough for me because when I was in Brighton, the pressure is less. At Chelsea, it is different. I felt a lot of pressure because you know the club, the history, the players who were there.”
“Bullet dodged” was a comment that enjoyed prominence in Liverpool circles last season with regards to missing out on Caicedo. Fans on social media, some Liverpool-leaning journalists and even former Red John Aldridge were among those making such judgements.
And maybe they were right at the time. It was impossible to ignore the fact Caicedo joined a Chelsea squad that could justifiably be called chaotic, but who’s to say he wouldn’t have still struggled with the pressure and expectations at Liverpool?
But now he looks settled and is earning rave reviews in the heart of Chelsea’s midfield. One of the chief differences between this season and last is where Caicedo’s operating, and the role he’s playing.
Under Mauricio Pochettino in 2023-24, Caicedo was essentially a box-to-box midfielder. Lung-busting runs through the middle were a feature of his game, and it cannot be said he didn’t offer something in such a role.
However, his key strengths have never revolved around getting the ball in the final third and being an attacking presence. While he undoubtedly possesses the all-round ability to be that player to a certain level, and he is an effective ball carrier, there was a sense he was being spread too thin.
So, where Enzo Fernández played deeper last season, he and Caicedo have effectively swapped positions on the pitch under Enzo Maresca. There’s unmistakably a greater focus and discipline in the Ecuadorian’s game in 2024-25, with the new coach choosing Caicedo as his go-to man as the more defensive-minded player in a double pivot.
Caicedo always seemed optimistic about Maresca’s arrival. In pre-season, he said: “[Maresca] plays the same system as I played at Brighton. He wants the same, wants me to show my quality, have a good personality, show my teammates that I am the boss on the pitch. I will be a good player with him.”
Clearly, Maresca has had a positive impact on Caicedo, but his role at Chelsea now appears to be more specific than with his previous club. At Brighton, the standard of his teammates was arguably not quite as high, and therefore it made sense for him to roam more and take the initiative.
With the Chelsea frontline made up of players like Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, Jadon Sancho, Noni Madueke, Nicolas Jackson and João Félix, that’s not a responsibility that needs to fall on his shoulders.
The heatmaps below highlight the change in Caicedo’s job from last season to this rather succinctly.
What this means, then, is Caicedo’s output has actually decreased from last season in many respects.
He’s touching the ball less than both last season (80.9 per 90) and his final campaign at Brighton (78.4), with his per-game average in 2024-25 at 70.0, and as a knock-on effect Caicedo isn’t playing as many passes (55.2 per 90, down from 65.7 in 2023-24). Similarly, he’s dribbling considerably less, with take-ons down from 1.6 per 90 to 0.9.
Some of this is partly down to how Chelsea are playing. As a collective they’re seeing less of the ball, registering fewer passes per game, playing deeper and passing into the centre of midfield from their centre-backs less.
But it also stands to reason that Caicedo is benefiting from having more structure to his own job.
The most notable impact on the defensive side of his game is that Caicedo is engaging opponents more than ever before in his Premier League career. His 2.9 tackles per 90 last season and the season before had been his level, but in 2024-25 that’s increased quite significantly to 3.6.
Additionally, his 11.5 duels per 90 has never been higher, neither has his duel success rate (60.5%), which sees him rank 10th among midfielders to average at least five duels per game, and his interceptions are marginally up to 1.3 per 90 from 1.2.
As a result, Caicedo’s defensive actions frequency has also increased slightly. When adjusted for possession, so as not to penalise defensive players on the basis of representing more dominant teams, it goes from 10.1 in 2023-24 to 10.5 in 2024-25, meaning he’s also gone up from the 88th percentile to the 90th percentile among central midfielders.
In fact, in the Premier League this season, he’s one of only six players to average at least 11 duels per 90, 60% duel success and 3.0 tackles per 90 (minimum 250 minutes played), highlighting the destructiveness he’s bringing to the Chelsea midfield at the moment.
But there is much more to him.
“The impact [Caicedo] has in the team goes beyond most of the stats that are shown for midfielders, because they don’t wholly reflect his role and influence on the team,” Caicedo’s former Brighton manager Graham Potter told BBC Sport recently. “You can use those binary measurements, like tackles made, distance run or sprints and it tells you one thing about him – but not everything.”
For instance, he offers real subtlety and dependability in the middle. Dropping Caicedo into a slightly deeper role is seemingly allowing Chelsea to maximise the benefit of his carrying ability in an area of the pitch where it’s likelier to result in them playing through the opposition’s press.
Only two nominal defensive midfielders in the Premier League this term have progressed the ball further via carries than Caicedo (465 metres), while his average of 59.3m progressed via carries per 90 minutes is an improvement of 15m on last season. Another way of looking at that is he’s progressing the ball 33% further each match than in 2023-24.
While that can be partly attributed to him occupying a deeper position, it’s still a very encouraging development considering he plays in a congested area of the pitch and is routinely put under pressure in a league that’s pretty much become the home of the high press.
Of course, this ability also allows him to step forward when the opportunity arises, and he boasts the technical skill, vision and passing range to have an impact. These might not be aspects of his game people associate with him most, but you only need to look at his assist for Nicolas Jackson at the weekend or his assist for the Senegal forward against West Ham to see what he can do in that respect.
But it was that talent to evade pressure and retain possession in tight spaces that made him stand out at Anfield. Only nine defensive/central midfielders have a better pass completion rate for passes under pressure from a defender within 2m (82.3%) than Caicedo this season.
The fact he possesses such quality and also manages to work so effectively off the ball encapsulates Caicedo’s roundedness as a midfielder. Still only 22 years old, he should continue to improve as well.
With Caicedo shaping up for a brilliant campaign on an individual level, it’s fair to say any talk of a “bullet dodged” has been well and truly put to rest.
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