Myanmar's Arakan Army: Why it should be taken seriously

Since Myanmar's military staged a coup and ousted the democratically elected government in February 2021, the country has been in a state of political turmoil.

The coup sparked mass protests, which evolved into a major anti-junta uprising, particularly in regions dominated by ethnic minorities. 

Those opposing the military regime have formed alliances comprising ethnic groups and civilian-led defense forces.

The civil war has intensified over the past year, with ethnic armed groups mounting serious challenges to the military's grip on power over the past year.

A three-pronged alliance of opposition forces, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), launched a large offensive in Shan state in late 2023.

In recent months, the junta's opponents have secured control of vast swathes of territory, particularly in northern Shan state and western Rakhine state in the west.

What is the Arakan Army?

The AA has made major advances on the battlefield, capturing dozens of townships and military outposts in the past 15 months.

The group's growing territorial gains, and seemingly undeterred momentum, have raised questions about its ultimate goal.

The AA serves as the military arm of the United League of Arakan (ULA), the political organization of the Buddhist people in Myanmar's western Rakhine state.

In 2017, the Myanmar military launched a clampdown against Rohingya Muslims living in the state, forcing around 750,000 Rohingya to flee to neighboring Bangladesh.

The international community sharply criticized the Myanmar government for the mass killings and forced displacement of the Rohingya, which the US formally declared as "genocide." 

The AA and the ULA say their aim is to create an autonomous region in Rakhine state that includes the Muslim population alongside the Buddhist Rakhine.

Keeping the options open

Ye Myo Hein, a visiting senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace and Global Fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C, said the AA is keeping its options open.

"The AA is currently focused on expelling the Myanmar military from Rakhine state. However, when it comes to the political future, the AA seems to be keeping all options on the table, not excluding the possibility of establishing a new, independent nation," he told DW.

"While it is too early to predict a definitive outcome, the decision to either pursue independence or remain part of Myanmar's polity will largely depend on how the future state is structured," the expert added.

Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst and director of communications at the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, shares a similar view.

"Officially, Arakan Army claims it is striving for 'confederation status,' but nobody knows. Even if the AA calls for separation from Myanmar, it sees no friendly neighbors," he said. 

The AA announced last week that it captured the regime's Western Command headquarters in Rakhine's Ann town.

If confirmed, it would be the second regional military command to fall to ethnic rebels in five months and deliver a huge blow to the military.

Tensions between AA and Rohingya

While the AA and the ULA seem to want to present a united front with Rohingya Muslims, they have in the past also been accused of launching deadly attacks against the minority group.

Observers say questions remain about how the historic differences between the two sides can be put aside. 

"AA leadership is realist and they may consider all the challenges, including the Rohingya issue, which is one of the minefields for the AA. Nevertheless, the military victory makes some leaders of AA, as well as some Rakhine nationals, so arrogant and it could create some blind spots for the challenges," Nyein said.

Adding further complexity is the Myanmar military's alleged forced recruitment of Rohingyas to fight for them against the ethnic armed groups.

Reports suggest that the AA has also hired Rohingyas.

Hein said the AA needs to address all issues with the Rohingya if it wants stability in Rakhine.

"The Rohingya issue could be a poison pill for Rakhine state if not properly addressed. Addressing this issue constructively is essential for ensuring long-term stability and progress in the region," he underscored.

But Rakhine is also not self-reliant and depends on other parts of Myanmar for vital supplies, including food and medicines, raising questions as to whether the region can thrive if the AA seeks independence. 

"The AA is likely to expand its engagement with Bangladesh and India to reduce its reliance on central Burma, particularly as it consolidates control over the border areas," Hein noted.

"Although the Bangladeshi government has stated it will not engage with the AA due to its status as a non-state actor, it is likely that, in the long run, neighboring countries will have no choice but to establish, at least informal, relations with the AA to ensure border security and stability."

What role will China play?

China's increasing involvement in Myanmar, analysts say, could also shape the conflict going forward.

The Asian giant is Myanmar's biggest trade partner and a major supplier of weapons to the military.

Beijing has also pumped billions into the country's oil and gas sector, as well as other physical infrastructure.   

Chinese officials have recently held talks with two of the AA's alliance partners to broker ceasfires with the junta.

The Myanmar military controls Kyaukphyu, a major town in Rahkine state that is the terminus of a $1.5 billion (€1.44 billion) oil pipeline and a parallel natural gas pipeline running to Kunming, the capital of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.

The pipelines are a major component of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which is an important part of Beijing's ambitious, multibillion-dollar global trade and infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

"Kyaukphyu is likely to be the final area the AA targets for control, prioritizing other regions first. With its proven military capabilities, the AA could likely seize Kyaukphyu through force now," Hein said.

"Any fighting in the area risks significant damage to Chinese infrastructure. This makes Kyaukphyu a pivotal bargaining chip for the AA," he added.

"By leveraging its strategic and economic importance, the AA could convince China into pressuring the Myanmar military to relinquish control peacefully, a move that aligns with China's interests in protecting its investments and maintaining regional stability."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru