By Free Republic | Created at 2024-10-23 18:21:58 | Updated at 2024-10-23 20:33:55
2 hours ago
Nate Silver: ‘My Gut Says’ Trump Wins, ‘but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut’
Breitbart ^ | 10/23/2024 | Wendell Husebø
Posted on 10/23/2024 11:17:20 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
“My gut says” former President Donald Trump will win the election, Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, with a warning not to trust “anyone’s gut” instinct.
Silver, a statistician, writer, and poker player, says the election remains a “50/50” coin flip, a characterization that many political experts argue is true with just 13 days until Election Day.
Newsweek reported on Silver’s history of predicting elections:
2008: Nate Silver successfully predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election. 2012: He correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states. 2016: Although Donald Trump won in an upset, Silver’s model gave Trump the highest chance of winning (about 30%) compared to most other forecasters, who largely dismissed Trump’s chances. 2020: Silver’s model favored Joe Biden, which aligned with the final outcome, though it underestimated Trump’s performance in certain states like Florida. In a New York Times op-ed, Silver guessed Trump will win due to, in part, what pollsters call nonresponse bias. A nonresponse bias is a pollster’s inability to reach enough supporters of Trump.
Silver also suggested Trump will win because he believes, without evidence, that many in the electorate are misogynists. Fifty-four percent of the nation say they are ready for a woman president, while only 30 percent said they are not, according to a recent YouGov poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: gut; silver; trump; wins
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To: ChicagoConservative27
2 posted on 10/23/2024 11:20:36 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Why isn’t it misandry when women vote overwhelmingly against a man?
Why isn’t it racism AND misandry when a black woman votes against a white man?
3 posted on 10/23/2024 11:20:38 AM PDT by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
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