NATO scrambles for drones that can survive the Arctic

COPENHAGEN - In 2023, Mads Petersen, owner of Greenland-based startup Arctic Unmanned, sat in a car to keep warm while he tested a small drone at minus 43 degrees Celsius (minus 45 degrees Fahrenheit).

The cold soon drained the drone's power.

"The battery only lasted for three minutes," he said.

Governments in the world's far north are seeking to overcome such challenges as the region comes increasingly into the geopolitical spotlight.

Russia and China have stepped up military activity in the Arctic, while NATO states in the region are reporting more acts of sabotage on energy and communications lines. President Donald Trump has recently revived U.S. claims to Greenland.

The conflict in Ukraine, meanwhile, has shown that unmanned aircraft can provide critical intelligence and strike capabilities on the battlefield. 

The United States, which sees the Arctic as crucial for territorial defence and its early warning system against nuclear attacks, said in a July strategy document it would focus on unmanned technology to counter Chinese-Russian collaboration there. Russian and Chinese bomber planes flew together off the coast of Alaska in July and their coast guard ships sailed together through the Bering Strait in October.

But drones - whether multicopters or fixed wing models - are vulnerable. Only the largest, long-range models have enough power for anti-icing systems like those used by aircraft. Cold, fog, rain or snow can cause a malfunction or crash. 

With countries boosting military spending, a Reuters survey of 14 companies and six defence ministries and armed forces in northern Europe and America shows the industry working at pace to buy or develop drones that can endure icy conditions, and increasing urgency among NATO states to acquire them.

"We are all having to catch up with Ukraine and Russia," said General Major Lars Lervik, head of the Norwegian Army.

No global data is publicly available on states' military drone fleets, but Lervik said the war in Ukraine has given Moscow and Kyiv valuable experience of drone technology that NATO countries lack.

Russia, whose military began building up a drone fleet in the Arctic in 2014, took an early lead in the race to control the Northern Sea Route, a passage between Europe and Asia along Russia's northern coast, said James Patton Rogers, a drone expert at Cornell University and a UN and NATO policy adviser.

Russia's Zala Aero, part of the Kalashnikov Group, already offers drones designed for extreme Arctic conditions and Russia has also said its long-range S-70 Okhotnik combat drone can operate at minus 12 Celsius and will be deployed there.

"We're moving towards a point where Russia will not only have unarmed surveillance drone systems along the Northern Sea Route, but potentially armed systems that are constantly patrolling those areas as well," said Rogers.

He said NATO had been slow to devise a coherent response. NATO said it has strengthened its presence in the Arctic and set up a new  Command to keep Atlantic lines free and secure; NATO states are investing in new air and maritime capabilities.

The Trump administration did not respond to a request for comment on that but said in an email the U.S. would continue to prioritise security in the Western Hemisphere and its presence in the Arctic.

The U.S. has already invested heavily in long-range drones to monitor and gather real-time information from the Arctic – a vast region where radar and satellite coverage are limited. These craft can operate at lower altitudes for surveillance, but if they do they face the same risk of icing as smaller models. 

The risk to drones is highest in temperatures just either side of freezing - between 8 degrees and minus 10 degrees Celsius, according to drone pilots and experts. A thin layer of ice forms on propellers and wings and destroys the aerodynamic.

KAMIKAZE OPTION?

Weather-resistant models are not the only solution. The U.S. Department of Defense has said it will buy tens of thousands of cheap drones with a kamikaze brief as part of a programme started in 2023 that will focus on the Indo-Pacific. It did not respond to a question on whether it may risk littering the Arctic with drone debris. 

"Sometimes it's actually cheaper to ... build something super cheap where we can just have thousands of them, and we don't care if we lose some," said Gregory Falco, head of the Aerospace Adversary Lab, a U.S. research centre that designs defensive and offensive capabilities for the Department of Defense.

The governments of Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Russia and Canada did not respond to requests for comment on environmental impacts. Finland's environment ministry declined to comment.

Norway's climate ministry said the loss of drones in the Arctic would be detrimental in a "particularly vulnerable" region. From this month, it has banned most drone use in much of the Svalbard archipelago.

Sweden's defence ministry said war itself is destructive for the environment; a credible defence capability that prevents conflicts through deterrence "is ultimately better for the environment than dealing with the devastation of war."  

The cheapest small drones used for basic tactical reconnaissance cost as little as $3,000 up to around $35,000, according to experts. 

Bigger models are more robust but more expensive. Medium-sized tactical drones, which normally fly at a radius of up to 200 km (124 miles), cost between $250,000 and $5 million. Large unmanned long-range drones that operate like airplanes can cost more than $200 million each. 

Many of the cheaper models can be bought on the open market, but the Ukraine conflict has demonstrated their limitations in winter. NATO states are looking to test them more in the Arctic, said drone expert Rogers, who acts as a policy adviser to the alliance.

In northern Europe, new NATO member Finland has been a first mover, using drones to patrol its border with Russia as part of a proposed "drone wall" aimed at protecting NATO's northeastern flank. 

Finland in 2023 added 2,000 small drones to its army's fleet of around 250 older ones. These can, according to their French manufacturer Parrot, fly in minus 36 degrees Celsius. They have been used in winter exercises in the north, the Finnish army says.

Other countries with territory in the region are drawing up plans to purchase winter-proof drones, budgeting tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.

Denmark's Joint Arctic Command, which is responsible for security in and around Greenland, does not have any drones. Copenhagen last year set aside 2.7 billion Danish crowns ($381 million) for two long-range models to operate in the Arctic and this week said it would buy two further drones. The country has also set aside 60 million crowns for smaller models, but gave no further details. 

Canada is buying 24 winter-capable medium-sized drones and 40 small ones for its navy, the Canadian Armed Forces said in an email. The forces currently operate around 150 older small and medium-sized drones.

Norway, which is NATO's monitor for a vast 2 million sq km area of the North Atlantic used by the Russian Northern Fleet's nuclear submarines, says it will invest in long-range surveillance drones for a planned Arctic base. 

It also plans to buy weather-resistant ones worth $25-$40 million for its army by 2030, according to its 2023-2030 procurement plan. The defence ministry declined further comment.

Sweden has said it plans to scale up capabilities in the area as part of a rapid rise in defence spending, without giving details.  

"Warfare is going to get much faster in the future," said Mike Fabey, U.S. editor at Janes Fighting Ships, a reference book for each country's defence assets. "The drones give you that ability to understand the situation more quickly, at a time when it's going to be about not seconds, but nanoseconds."

STARTUPS AND FIELD TESTS

The weatherproof model Finland bought can be purchased on the open market for around $9,000. It was designed for the U.S. Army and made in the United States by Paris-listed Parrot SA, which is majority-owned by its CEO, Henri Seydoux.

Parrot says on its website it has sold models to 19 countries including Sweden and Norway, but did not respond to requests for further comment.

Beyond this, governments and large aerospace firms are mainly turning to startups and small companies for innovative solutions, Stacy Cummings, head of NATO's support and procurement agency, told Reuters. NATO will hold a session this year to bring together governments and companies.

Manufacturers of small and medium-sized multicopter drones are experimenting with blade shapes: for instance, propellers that spin so fast that snow or ice is instantly transformed into gas.

It is easier to avoid bad weather with smaller drones because they don't fly very far, experts say. Larger models have ranges up to hundreds of miles and fixed wings, which makes it harder to dodge rain and snow.

"There are definitely some challenges, especially with humidity and icing conditions as well as some of the electronics as they get colder," Alex Larade, a Canadian lieutenant serving in the artillery unit of NATO's multinational brigade in Latvia, told Reuters during an exercise with a fixed-wing Blackjack drone in a muddy field in Adazi, Latvia in November.  

"At this time, we haven't had the experience in the Arctic to actually see just how far we can push the air vehicle," he said. Boeing subsidiary Insitu, which made the craft, said the drone has not been rated for icing conditions, but it is working with Norwegian start-up Ubiq Aerospace to optimize it. 

One approach that Ubiq is testing is to add a mesh of carbon fibre composite which can be switched on to conduct just enough heat to the wing to melt any ice forming.

Ubiq said it has recently signed contracts to provide anti-icing protection for drones with Boeing and Lockheed Martin worth over $5 million, and has deals for anti-icing drone products with the Norwegian armed forces and U.S. defense industry companies Textron Systems and Northrop Grumman.  

Finland-based company Nordic Drones also uses an automated system that helps the craft detect – and dodge - areas with fog or snow. That company was bought last year by Patria, a Finnish-Norwegian joint venture in which the Finnish state holds a majority. REUTERS

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