By Axios | Created at 2024-09-23 22:18:15 | Updated at 2024-09-30 09:32:44
6 days ago
A GOP-led effort to move Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral college system was dealt another blow Monday as state Sen. Mike McDonnell (R) said he wouldn't support the change.
Why it matters: McDonnell's announcement makes the likelihood of Republicans generating enough votes for the measure very unlikely, as the party is short of the 33 senate votes needed for Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) to call a special legislative session.
- "I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change," McDonnell said in a statement.
- Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) told reporters Monday that the effort to change the state system had ended due to a lack of votes.
The big picture: Nebraska's senate consists of 33 Republicans, 15 Democrats and 1 Independent. 17 state senators, including McDonnell and state Sen. Megan Hunt (I), have pledged to vote no on any measure that would alter the state's electoral votes.
- Former President Barack Obama won the district in 2008, as did President Biden in 2020. Former President Trump won all five of Nebraska's electoral college votes in 2016.
Zoom out: Nebraska and Maine are the only states that don't apportion Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.
- Maine has said it is too late for the state to change its electoral vote process for this election.
- But in the tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, erasing Nebraska's 2nd district electoral vote would potentially help the former president more than Harris.
- One possible outcome is Harris winning the "blue wall" while Trump takes Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Georgia. That lineup would give Harris 269 electoral votes to Trump's 268. Trump winning all five of Nebraska's votes would result in a tie.
- An electoral college tie kicks the final vote to the House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. That procedure would favor Trump.
Catch up quick: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) met with Pillen and Republican state lawmakers on Sept. 18 to push for the last-minute change.
- On Sunday, Graham told NBC's Kristen Welker that the odds of a change before the election were 50-50.
What's next: McDonnell said he urged state lawmakers to consider a constitutional amendment during next year's legislative session to allow voters to decide on distributing the state's electoral votes.
- "Nebraska voters, not politicians of either party, should have the final say on how we pick a president," he said.
Go deeper: Why the electoral college map could change right before the election
