Negeri Sembilan state election: Four high-stakes seats to watch amid a royal tussle

SEREMBAN – As nominations for the Negeri Sembilan state election closed on July 18, the stage is set for a closely watched contest, with 103 candidates vying for the state’s 36 assembly seats.

A total of seven parties and four independent candidates have thrown their hat into the ring, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) fielding the largest pool of 36 candidates.

Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi’s Barisan Nasional (BN) is contesting 25 seats. BN is also benefiting from an informal agreement with the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN), which is gunning for 11 seats.

This makes the Aug 1 election a test of whether PH can hold its ground against a so-called Malay unity pact.

The polls will also be the state’s most closely fought in decades, featuring two five-cornered fights – the first in 52 years – in Nilai and Sri Tanjung.

Jeram Padang and Rahang will face four-cornered fights, while there will be a whopping 21 three-cornered fights.

At the 2023 state election, 83 candidates competed for 36 seats, among which seven were three-cornered fights and two were four-cornered ones.

PH enters the contest after two electoral setbacks, including at the Johor state election. At the July 11 polls, BN secured 48 of the 56 seats, eight more than the 2023 state polls, while PH’s tally fell from 12 to eight. 

The Negeri Sembilan election was triggered by a constitutional crisis.

In April, several traditional chieftains, called the Undang, tried to “sack” the current state ruler and install a new one in June, but this was not recognised by both the state and federal governments.

The state’s menteri besar Aminuddin Harun, from Anwar’s PH, dissolved the state assembly to seek a fresh mandate after 14 assemblymen from UMNO, the main party under BN, withdrew their support. They cited their loss of confidence over his handling of the constitutional crisis involving the monarchy.

In the 2023 state polls, PH won 17 seats, BN won 14, and they went on to govern the state in a coalition. PN won the remaining five seats: two by Bersatu and three by Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

Negeri Sembilan has 889,490 registered voters. 

Bumiputeras make up 64.6 per cent of its population, followed by the Chinese at 20.9 per cent, Indians at 14 per cent and other ethnic groups at 0.5 per cent.

The results of the Negeri election could affect Anwar’s decision on when to call the next general election, which must be held by February 2028. A weak showing for PH could intensify questions over the coalition’s standing and fuel pressure for an earlier federal contest.

While PH has come under pressure, PN faces its own internal tensions. 

The opposition coalition has been hit by a deepening rift between its two main partners, PAS and Bersatu, following leadership changes and disagreements over cooperation with BN.

Parti Wawasan Negara, a breakaway party formed by former Bersatu leaders, is contesting four seats – Klawang, Sikamat, Mambau and Gemas – where Bersatu has also fielded candidates. This pits the two parties in direct contests that will gauge which enjoys stronger support among opposition voters.

Political analyst Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia noted that the stakes are high for Anwar.

She said: “Now that it’s clear BN and PN are working together, it’s going to be really tough for PH. If the Malay votes are consolidated, there is a good chance BN-PN can get a simple majority.

“PH as the incumbent does not even have a simple majority right now. So losing the state would definitely be read as a rejection of PH and thus Anwar’s leadership. If they lose this state election, I am not sure how long Anwar can withstand any pressure to dissolve Parliament.”

Against this backdrop, here are four key battles at the upcoming election.

Linggi: Caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin’s crucial gamble 

After four terms in Sikamat, Negeri Sembilan’s caretaker menteri besar and PH candidate Aminuddin is making a high-stakes move to contest the Malay-majority seat of Linggi.

Although Linggi has long been regarded as an UMNO fortress, it is one of the state seats within the Port Dickson parliamentary constituency which Aminuddin has represented as MP since 2022.

His supporters argue that this gives him an established presence among local voters despite the seat’s history of backing UMNO.

Negeri Sembilan’s caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun is making a high-stakes move to contest the Malay-majority seat of Linggi.

ST PHOTO: HAZLIN HASSAN

At the nomination centre in Port Dickson, Aminuddin acknowledged that he faces an uphill battle in Linggi, where he is in a three-cornered fight against UMNO and Bersatu.

“This is their stronghold. I’m contesting not only against the BN candidate but also BN’s entire election machinery,” Aminuddin told reporters after filing his nomination papers, estimating his chances at “50-50”.

Dismissing suggestions that his move to contest in Linggi was linked to the royal constitutional issue, Aminuddin described such claims as “mischievous” and urged parties not to drag matters involving the monarchy and Malay customs into the election campaign.

He said PH would campaign on its record in government, citing development, human capital initiatives and racial harmony as key achievements.

“The most important thing is that we have a united, multiracial society,” he said, adding that issues involving the monarchy were outside the purview of political parties.

“Our target is to win more than 18 seats. That is our hope and what we are working towards,” he said.

Meanwhile, incumbent Mohd Faizal Ramli of UMNO said he expects a stiff contest against Aminuddin. He won Linggi with a 55.1 per cent vote share against PN in 2023.

“This is going to be a tough challenge because I’m up against a strong candidate,” Mohd Faizal told reporters.

Candidates:

Pertang: The stronghold that could shape the state’s leadership 

UMNO stronghold Pertang, where Malays made up 65.5 per cent of the voters in 2023, has seen straight fights in every state election over the past decade – until now.

Jalaluddin Alias from UMNO is defending the seat after winning 66.5 per cent of the vote in 2023 to defeat Amirudin Hassan from PAS, who garnered 33.5 per cent of the vote.

Jalaluddin, 63, who has been chairman of BN-UMNO Negeri Sembilan since 2023, is widely tipped to become the next menteri besar if BN secures a majority in the state election.

Negeri Sembilan BN chairman Jalaluddin Alias (front row, fourth from left) at the nomination centre in Jelebu, Negeri Sembilan, on July 18.

ST PHOTO: LU WEI HOONG

However, he declined to confirm whether he would be the menteri besar candidate, saying the decision is the prerogative of BN chairman Zahid.

“We have several candidates to lead Negeri Sembilan after the Aug 1 polling day,” he told the media.

Jalaluddin expressed confidence that BN could win all 25 contested seats and form the state government on its own without entering into any political pact with other parties.

“Perikatan Nasional supporters will support us in the 25 seats we are contesting, just as our supporters will back them in the 11 seats they are contesting.”

During the confirmation of his candidacy at the nomination centre, PH supporters booed Jalaluddin, calling him a “traitor”.

It is believed the chants referred to BN’s decision to withdraw its support for PH in April during the royal crisis.

Candidates:

Chennah: Anthony Loke’s toughest test yet

Anthony Loke, secretary-general of the Chinese-majority Democratic Action Party (DAP), faces a stern test in Chennah, a seat where Malays make up 47 per cent of voters.

He won just 50.9 per cent of the vote in the 2018 state election before increasing his vote share to 61.5 per cent in the 2023 state election after PH joined forces with UMNO. 

But the unofficial BN-PN electoral pact will threaten Loke’s chances of defending the seat.

A strong Malay unity sentiment, coupled with a lukewarm response from Chinese voters, would not bode well for him.

PH national deputy chairman and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke (left) and Negeri Sembilan BN chairman Jalaluddin Alias greeting each other at the nomination centre on July 18.

ST PHOTO: LU WEI HOONG

Speaking to reporters at the nomination centre, Loke said he is aware of the challenges and is ready to take the bull by the horns. “Chennah has always been a mixed seat, and the chances of winning are about 50 per cent. As the incumbent government, we have been delivering development projects here,” he said.

He added that DAP, being in opposition in the Johor state government, lacked resources and was thus disadvantaged in mixed and rural seats. That contributed to the party losing four seats in the southern state.

PH national deputy chairman and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke (white shirt, centre) arriving at the nomination centre in Jelebu on July 18.

ST PHOTO: LU WEI HOONG

DAP heavyweights such as national chairman Gobind Singh Deo and adviser Lim Guan Eng were among those present to support Loke.

His performance will be crucial to PH’s prospects in Negeri Sembilan. A defeat would deal a significant blow to Anwar’s PH coalition, given that DAP is its largest component party in Parliament. However, a victory would provide a much-needed morale boost for the coalition.

Candidates:

Lenggeng: Can PH win back a key swing seat?

Can PH reclaim Lenggeng, which it surrendered to UMNO under a 2023 seat-sharing arrangement?

PH had won Lenggeng when it scored a slim majority at the 2018 state election to form the Negeri Sembilan government for the first time. Now that PH is no longer working with BN, can it reclaim the seat?

Lenggeng incumbent Mohd Asna Amin of BN-UMNO (centre) with his rivals Zarinna Abu Zarin of PH-Amanah (left) and Zool Amali Hussin of Bersatu at the nomination centre.

ST PHOTO: MUZLIZA MUSTAFA

Former Negeri Sembilan deputy state assembly speaker Mohd Asna Amin filed his nomination papers for the Lenggeng seat at 9am, accompanied by hundreds of drumming, flag-waving BN supporters.

​Mohd Asna, who won Lenggeng by a margin of 3.5 per cent in 2023, now faces a three-cornered fight against Negeri Sembilan Amanah Women’s chief Zarinna Abu Zarin and Bersatu’s Zool Amali Hussin.

​Despite his narrow victory then, Mohd Asna expressed confidence in retaining the seat. “The narrow majority was due to the people’s rejection of the UMNO-DAP cooperation at the time, and it was also my first time contesting in Lenggeng. People did not really know me then. I believe my work over the past three years will speak for itself,” he said.

While high-profile leaders from BN’s component parties turned up to show solidarity with Mohd Asna, Zool arrived without top Bersatu leadership.

The former Seremban UMNO Youth chief resigned from UMNO in 2023 after 28 years, citing an inability to accept the party’s alliance with DAP.

​Contesting under the Bersatu banner for the first time, Zool, a Lenggeng native, said he is banking on his deep local roots and established service to win over voters.

“Bersatu has given me the opportunity to represent my home town. My home is in Lenggeng. The people here know me, and I believe they will judge me based on my service,” he said.

Candidates: