New Dementia Cases Projected to More Than Double Globally by 2050

The number of new annual dementia cases worldwide is estimated to increase more than twofold by 2050 from 2023 levels, according to a recently published peer-reviewed study.

Published in the JAMA Neurology journal on Oct. 12, the study analyzed data from more than 38,000 individuals across 18 nations and territories.

Based on the calculated incidence rate of dementia, the researchers estimated that in 2050, there would be 24.7 million new cases worldwide, up by more than 116 percent from 11.4 million new cases in 2023.

Gender-wise, incidence rates were found to be higher among women than men.

Middle-income and lower-income nations had higher rates than richer countries.

In an Oct. 13 statement, the University of New South Wales Sydney, whose researchers led the study, said that dementia already affects more than 57 million people globally.

Prof. Henry Brodaty, co-author of the study, said in a statement that the findings reinforce the urgent need to invest in dementia prevention measures.

“Twenty-four million new cases of dementia every year would place enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems and economies around the world,” Brodaty said.

“Population ageing means we cannot simply wait for people to develop dementia and then respond,” Brodaty said.

“We need to act across the spectrum—from reducing modifiable risk factors and identifying people at risk earlier, through to improving diagnosis, treatment and care.”

Understanding incidence rate was critical as it helps estimate future demand for diagnoses and clinical care, while contributing to preparing the requisite preventive measures, the statement said.

Prof. Perminder Sachdev, senior author of the study, said that higher incidence rates in low- and middle-income nations were “particularly concerning because these regions are experiencing rapid population ageing while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care.”

Dementia is used to describe a decline in mental ability that interferes with daily life, with the most common type being Alzheimer’s.

“The sooner you can diagnose dementia, the sooner you can begin to treat it to slow its progression,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in an August 2024 report.

Dementia affects more than 6 million Americans and is the reason for more than 100,000 deaths annually, according to a February 2025 post by the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

Researchers estimate that 42 percent of Americans above the age of 55 could eventually end up developing dementia, and U.S. population aging is expected to double the annual new dementia case numbers by 2060, NIH said.

Some of the risk factors for dementia include lack of physical activity, alcohol or tobacco use, high blood pressure, uncontrolled diabetes, and loss of hearing, according to the CDC.

The agency recommended engaging in physical activity regularly to help prevent, delay, or manage chronic medical conditions such as dementia.

It asked people to avoid or restrict smoking and alcohol consumption.

“High blood pressure can damage blood vessels and limit blood flow to the brain, which does damage to the brain. It also increases the risk of having a stroke, which can also damage the brain,” CDC said.

“Maintaining a healthy weight and taking your prescribed blood pressure medications can help.”

The study analyzed blood samples of females for plasma p-tau217, a type of protein that indicates early brain changes associated with Alzheimer’s.

“We observed a 3-fold higher hazard of all-cause dementia with higher baseline p-tau217 levels,” the study said.

The association of p-tau217 with mild cognitive impairment or dementia was “greater among women older than 70 years.”