Niall Ferguson: Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine?

KYIV, Ukraine — I did not take it personally that a Russian drone destroyed the train behind ours as we neared the Polish border with Ukraine on Sunday. Indeed, I wasn’t aware of what had happened until a few hours later. I had taken it for granted that going to Ukraine amid a relentless aerial bombardment would have its risks. But I had also assumed that I’d probably be all right if I was traveling with such luminaries as the former UK prime minister Boris Johnson, the former director of the CIA David Petraeus, and multiple current or former leaders of Scandinavian and Baltic states—not forgetting the editor of The Economist.

I don’t think the Russians intended to hit our train. I do think they intended to send us all a message. And it is the same message that aggressors have been sending since the earliest days of siege warfare: Be afraid. It says much about the war in Ukraine that President Vladimir Putin believes he can send such a message to eminent Westerners with impunity. He is probably right about that. It dovetails with his current strategy of drone incursions, sabotage, and cyberattacks directed at multiple NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) members.