By GB News (Politics) | Created at 2026-08-09 15:51:25 | Updated at 2026-08-09 16:02:04
34 minutes ago
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has fallen behind both Labour and the Tories in a bombshell new opinion poll.
The survey, conducted by ex-Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, found Reform UK's support has dropped to its lowest level since the 2024 General Election at just 18 per cent.
Meanwhile, Andy Burnham's Labour continues to rise steadily in the polls, climbing from 21 per cent to 27 per cent.
Mr Farage is also languishing behind Kemi Badenoch's Tories, with the Conservatives now on 23 per cent.
However, Lord Ashcroft's poll appears to be an outlier compared to other surveys released since Mr Burnham became Prime Minister last month.
Reform UK's average support still stands at 24 per cent since Mr Burnham entered No10.
During the same time period, Labour's vote share has ranged from between 20 per cent and 28 per cent.
The Conservatives have witnessed little change since Mr Burnham took over, with support for Mrs Badenoch's party hovering around 20 per cent.
Despite other polls painting a prettier picture for Mr Farage, 18 per cent in Lord Ashcroft's survey could leave Mr Farage with just over a dozen seats.
Reform UK would secure just 16 seats, significantly down from other polls suggesting Mr Farage could become Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, the Tories could receive a modest boost to take them from 121 to 158 seats.
Mr Burnham's Labour, which Nowcast's projects would secure 303 seats, would still be left short of forming an overall majority.
However, a progressive alliance with the Liberal Democrats would likely ensure Mr Burnham remains Prime Minister if the survey is emulated at the next general election.
The Greens would also receive more seats than Reform UK, giving Mr Burnham another option amid potential coalition negotiations.
While Mr Farage claimed back-to-back victories in the 2025 and 2026 Local Elections, Nowcast does not expect such a scenario would give Reform UK much chance of winning Robert Jenrick's Newark seat or Suella Braverman's constituency of Fareham & Waterlooville.
Amber Valley, Basildon & Billericay, Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Dudley, Folkestone & Hythe, Hornchurch & Upminster, Lowestoft, North Warwickshire & Bedworth, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, South West Norfolk, and Tamworth would instead likely fall into Reform UK's hands.
However, Reform UK figures have dismissed Lord Ashcroft's findings as an outlier, pointing to the party's continued lead in several other national polls.
A YouGov survey released this week put Reform back ahead of Labour, at 23 per cent to 22 per cent, just days after the Ashcroft poll's release.
Mr Farage has previously accused rival pollsters of underplaying Reform's true level of support, branding some methodologies "deceptive".
However, Lord Ashcroft has acknowledged that he assesses party support differently from most of his rivals.
