No guarantee I won’t raise taxes again, says Starmer

Thank you for joining me for today’s politics live blog. 

I will be back tomorrow morning. 

Sir Lindsay Hoyle has criticised Rachel Reeves and the Government for making Budget-related announcements to the media rather than to the House of Commons. 

The Commons Speaker said it was “totally unacceptable” for Ms Reeves to announce last week during a trip to the US that she intended to change the Government’s fiscal rules. 

Sir Lindsay said the Government had made “major new policy announcements with significant and wide ranging implications for the Government’s fiscal policy and for the public finances” and such announcements should have been presented to MPs first.

He said: “The premature disclosure of the contents of the Budget has always been regarded as a supreme discourtesy to the House, indeed I still regard it as such. 

“I am very, very disappointed that the Chancellor expects the House to wait nearly a full week to hear a repeat of these announcements in the Budget statement on Wednesday.”

He added: “It is totally unacceptable to go around the world telling everybody rather than these members... they deserve to be treated better.” 

Scrapping the £2 bus fare cap is a disgraceful decision that will harm the poorest in society, and discourage public transport at a time when it is needed more than ever.

Why is the government punishing people for trying to get to work?

The Government has declined to say whether it will be keeping the single occupancy discount for council tax in this week’s Budget.

Responding to a question from the shadow communities secretary Kemi Badenoch, Communities Minister Jim McMahon instead said the “right decisions will be made in the interests of working people”.

He said: “I can see the shadow secretary of state making that point repeatedly, at this point we’re all waiting, of course for the statement and the Budget.

“But I can say that the right decisions will be made in the interests of working people. We recognise the cost-of-living crisis that is being faced across the country. And like all members of the house I’m sure she will be waiting with interest for Wednesday.”

Ms Badenoch had said: “At the last oral questions, the Secretary of State [Angela Rayner] assured me that she had no plans to increase council tax for anyone. However, when pressed by the member for Beverley and Holderness, she would not make the same guarantee that the single occupancy discount would be retained. Will ministers take the opportunity to do so now?”

The current scheme gives a 25 per cent council tax discount to people who live on their own. 

Millions more savers could see their tax-free allowance slashed under Labour, analysis suggests.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is poised to extend a freeze on income tax thresholds until 2030 in her maiden Budget on Wednesday.

The move, which would drag more workers into paying 40pc tax, would cost millions their personal savings allowance, according to analysis by Coventry Building Society.

You can read the full story here.

A former No 10 chief of staff said they were still undecided over whether to vote in the Tory leadership contest. 

Lord Barwell, a Tory peer who served in Downing Street during Theresa May’s premiership, tweeted: 

The Liberal Democrats accused Sir Keir Starmer of imposing a “bus tax” after the Prime Minister announced a £2 cap on fares will increase to £3. 

Tim Farron, the Lib Dems’ environment spokesman, said: “Keir Starmer’s hike in the bus fare cap is without a doubt a bus tax.

“While this new Government has been left to make difficult choices, they cannot allow the burden of fixing the Conservatives’ mess to be on people and small businesses across the country.”

The Tories claimed Labour had not been “straight with the British people” during the general election campaign over the party’s tax plans. 

Laura Trott, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said the Budget which will be delivered on Wednesday will be the “one they planned all along” as she responded to Sir Keir Starmer’s speech. 

She said: “Rachel Reeves said during the election campaign that Labour’s plans ‘don’t require any further increases in taxes’ other than the tax rises set out in Labour’s manifesto. Keir Starmer confirmed today that this wasn’t true.

“The Budget Labour are about to deliver is the one they planned all along and Labour simply weren’t straight with the British people about it during the election campaign.”

Sir Ed Davey said the burden of fixing the “mess” left by the last Tory government must not fall on families as he responded to Sir Keir Starmer’s pre-Budget speech. 

The leader of the Liberal Democrats said: “The previous Conservative government unquestionably left our economy in tatters and wrecked our NHS. Yet the new government cannot allow the burden of fixing this mess to fall on families and small businesses already suffering from past Conservative tax rises.

“To fix our NHS and public services and heal our economy, the Prime Minister should look to the big banks, big tech companies and the oil and gas giants to raise the money needed. Anything else would be letting down so many who’ve already suffered so much.” 

Robert Jenrick labelled Sir Keir Starmer “clueless” over the Government’s decision to reduce the generosity of a cap on bus fares (see the post below at 11.57). 

The cap is currently £2 but Sir Keir announced it will be increasing to £3. 

Mr Jenrick, the Tory leadership contender, said the Prime Minister “must think people who get the bus aren’t working people”. 

This Budget will help to get Britain working.

It will pave the way for reforms that tackle the root causes of economic inactivity, so those who can work, will work.

Labour’s inability to define “working people” continues to be a running sore for the party ahead of the Budget. 

Minister after minister has been unable to provide a clear definition for who exactly would be covered by the party’s manifesto tax pledge. 

Telegraph readers have been weighing in on the chaos in the comments section of today’s live blog: 

Halloween is on Thursday this week but Sir Keir Starmer made plain in his speech that the big scare will be unleashed a day earlier in the form of Wednesday’s Budget.

Everything is a mess and there is not enough money to pay to fix it was the broad message from the Prime Minister when he spoke in the West Midlands this morning. 

He said he intended to deal with the “tough stuff” at the Budget in 48 hours’ time, with Rachel Reeves expected to announce a number of big tax increases.  

But he also said he could not rule out further big tax raids at future Budgets. So pain on Wednesday and potentially more pain in the years ahead. 

Expectation management is the name of the game for governments in the run up to Budgets. If Labour’s goal was to prepare the nation for a horror show, it has unquestionably succeeded. 

The Prime Minister would not be drawn on whether the Government will increase fuel duty at the Budget on Wednesday. 

Told that a fuel duty hike would hit the “working people” Labour has pledged to protect, Sir Keir Starmer said: “I am not going to preempt what happens on Wednesday but obviously this is an issue that comes up at every Budget and you will see how we deal with it at this Budget.” 

Sir Keir said he understood how important the issue was for some people. 

Sir Keir Starmer said he could not rule out further tax raids at future Budgets but insisted he was aiming to deal with the “tough stuff” this Wednesday. 

Asked if the coming Budget would be the first and last with big tax rises, the Prime Minister said: “We are fixing the foundations in this Budget. So that is the purpose of this Budget, to take the difficult decisions now. 

“Nobody wants tax rises, least of all me, so we will do the hard work in this Budget to allow us then to rebuild the country. 

“I can’t give you a cast iron guarantee that never again in any Budget will there be any adjustment to tax because we just don’t know what is round the corner.” 

But Sir Keir said that “it is our intention to take the tough decisions here and now” and the “tough stuff is coming in this Budget”. 

“But I am going to resist the temptation to say that at no point ever will there ever be an adjustment to anything else in the future,” he said.  

Sir Keir Starmer was asked if he accepted that Labour’s plan to change debt rules to allow the Government to borrow more money for investment would push up interest rates and hit mortgage holders. 

He said: “I am not going to preempt exactly what the Chancellor will say on Wednesday but I have been really clear that we have to move to a situation where we invest in the future of this country.” 

Sir Keir Starmer has announced a £2 cap on bus fares in England will be replaced with a less generous £3 cap at the Budget on Wednesday. 

There have been widespread reports that the £2 cap was going to be scrapped. 

Asked about the issue this morning, Sir Keir said: “The first thing to say is the Tories only funded that to the end of 2024 and therefore that is the end of the funding in relation to the £2 capped fare. 

“I do know how much this matters, particularly in rural communities where there is heavy reliance on buses and that is why I am able to say to you this morning that in the Budget we will announce there will be a £3 cap on bus fares to the end of 2025 because I know how important it is.”  

Sir Keir Starmer was asked if he could rule out more big tax hikes at future Budgets given that his Government’s first Budget on Wednesday this week is expected to include big tax raising measures. 

The Prime Minister failed to do so. 

He said: “I fundamentally believe that we need to run towards the tough decisions. I fundamentally believe we have to fix the foundations so that we can build a better future and that is tough, that is difficult. 

“But that is why we are taking the decision on Wednesday to do it because it is the right thing to do and it is the right thing for our country.

“I think and believe that it will also allow investment to come in, secure that we are a government that is prepared to do the tough things to stabilise the economy.” 

Sir Keir Starmer is now taking questions from the media. 

It was suggested to the Prime Minister that he was set to unveil a “Budget of sneaky tax rises”, with an expected increase to employer National Insurance contributions likely to just be passed on to employees. 

Sir Keir said that Labour had “made clear manifesto promises to working people” on not increasing VAT, National Insurance and income tax. 

“We intend to keep to those promises,” he said. 

The Prime Minister said he “expected to be judged” by the British people on whether he succeeds in delivering on his five missions. 

He said that in the coming weeks the Government will publish “clear ambitions” for those missions for the current Parliament.

The five missions are: Kickstarting economic growth, making the UK a clean energy superpower, taking back our streets, breaking down barriers to opportunity and building an NHS fit for the future.

Sir Keir Starmer said that all around the world democratic values are “under attack” because people have “lost faith it can still deliver for their family”. 

But he said what people want from politics “hasn’t changed” - economic security, national security, border security.

Sir Keir Starmer said “this is not 1997” as he defended the tax rises coming at Wednesday’s Budget. 

He said: “Look, nobody wants higher taxes, just like nobody wants public spending cuts. But we have to be realistic about where we are as a country. 

“This is not 1997 when the economy was decent but public services were on their knees. And it is not 2010 where public services were strong but the public finances were weak. 

“We have to deal with both sides of that coin.” 

He said Labour was facing “unprecedented circumstances”. 

The Prime Minister said that Labour was turning the page and closing the book on Tory “chaos” and “decline”. 

Sir Keir Starmer said: “Those days are done. They are behind us and change is here.” 

He said that “of course there will be tough decisions” but the Budget will “get Britain working”. 

He said that Rachel Reeves will pledge £240 million in new funding for local services to help get more people back into work. 

Sir Keir Starmer said: “It is working people who pay the price when their government fails to deliver economic stability.”

He said that voters had “had enough” of “crumbling” public services. 

He argued that austerity is not the solution but neither is “out of control” borrowing. 

He promised to take a different path, one of taking “honest, responsible, long term decisions”. 

He said: “I will defend our tough decisions all day long. It is the right thing for our country and it is the only way to get the investment that we need.” 

Sir Keir Starmer said he was working to help people who “feel ignored” and who feel that they are sliding “into greater insecurity”. 

The Prime Minister then dismissed the row over Labour’s inability to define “working people” as he said that he believed those people “know exactly who they are”.  

We are now underway in the West Midlands as Sir Keir Starmer delivers a pre-Budget address. 

The Prime Minister started by saying that Labour had delivered in its early days in power: “Our economy stabilised, the foundations fixed, hope for the future restored...”

He said that he was governing “for the working people of this country”. 

Sir Keir Starmer should be on his feet in the West Midlands shortly. 

The Prime Minister will speak in front of the slogan: “Fixing the foundations”. 

This is a landmark week for Britain.

For the first time in 15 years, our Budget will put working people first.

The truth is, the Tories left you to pay the price for their chaos.

We will clear up their mess. Step up in tough times, not stand back.

We will deliver change.

Workers face losing thousands of pounds from their payslips if the Government increases employers’ National Insurance contributions, analysis has found.

Reports suggest that the Chancellor will increase National Insurance contributions for employers in Wednesday’s Budget.

While Labour claims the Budget will not hit workers’ payslips, analysis shows that the employees could see their salaries reduced as companies try to avoid increased costs.

You can read the full story here.

Private sector workers are going to be “absolutely hammered” at the Budget on Wednesday, Richard Tice has predicted. 

The deputy leader of Reform UK said plans to spare the public sector from an increase on employer National Insurance contributions represented a “targeted assault on wealth creation”. 

He told Talk: “It is a targeted assault on wealth creation, on growing the economy. The public sector can’t grow the economy - wealth creation and growth is generated by the private sector.”

He added: “We are all going to get absolutely hammered and assaulted on Wednesday.”

Sir Keir Starmer will deliver a speech just after 11am this morning and you will be able to watch it live at the top of the page. 

The Prime Minister will use the address to set the scene for the Budget on Wednesday. 

Sir Keir is expected to say the Government’s first Budget will embrace the “harsh light of fiscal reality” but that it will also pave the way for “better days are ahead”. 

The premier has previously warned the Budget will be “painful”. 

Jeremy Hunt has accused the Budget watchdog of giving Rachel Reeves political cover for a record-breaking tax raid.

The former chancellor attacked the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) for bias as it prepares to release a report on Budget day reviewing an alleged £22 billion “black hole” left by the Tories.

In a letter to the OBR, Mr Hunt said a decision to publish its findings alongside Ms Reeves’s first Budget on Wednesday was not “consistent with political impartiality” and “would cross a line that would be impossible to defend as anything other than a political intervention”.

The document is expected to be seized on by the Chancellor as she blames the Tories for a historic tax grab of up to £35 billion, including raids on employers’ National Insurance (NI) contributions, inheritances and capital gains.

You can read the full story here. 

Pat McFadden could not say if the self-employed will be covered by Labour’s “working people” tax pledge at the Budget. 

Asked if a self-employed window cleaner could get clobbered, the Cabinet minister would not be drawn. 

He told BBC Breakfast: “Let’s wait to see what the Chancellor says on Wednesday, I can’t speculate on the individual measures.” 

A Cabinet minister has said that the “key things” on a person’s payslip “won’t change” after Wednesday’s Budget.

Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster told Times Radio: “An important thing is when people see their payslip after the Budget, those key things to look for: the level of tax - income tax and National Insurance - in their payslip in their wages, that won’t change after Wednesday.”

A Cabinet minister said he believed Wednesday’s Budget will be the “most honest” in “some years”.

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden told Times Radio that the Government “levelled with people” before the Budget.

“There’s no point in telling people everything’s absolutely fine when the prison system is in a state of collapse, when NHS waiting lists are at a record high, when we’ve got crumbling schools,” he said.

“There’s so much that’s wrong that we’ve got to fix and it’s important to set that out honestly and candidly for the public.”

He added: “I think we’ll have the most honest Budget on Wednesday that we’ve had for some years.”

The Tories said it was shaping up to be a “Budget of broken promises” on Wednesday.

Victoria Atkins, the shadow health secretary, told Sky News: “I am deeply, deeply worried about what we are hearing about the proposals for this Budget because it seems that it is shaping up to be a Budget of broken promises. 

“The Labour party didn’t promise much in the general election but they promised two things. 

“First of all they wouldn’t fiddle with the fiscal rules, their words, not ours, and secondly that they will not raise National Insurance, VAT and income tax on working people.

“They have announced that they are going to fiddle the fiscal rules… but now we are hearing that the Labour Party don’t actually understand who the people they claim they are trying to protect, who those people are.” 

Politics is about choices.

My government chooses honest, responsible, long-term decisions in the interests of working people.

We choose stability, investment and reform. To fix the NHS, rebuild Britain, protect your payslips and deliver change.

There will be parts of the Budget on Wednesday that people will not like, Pat McFadden said this morning. 

The Cabinet minister told Sky News: “Let’s see how people feel after this comes out. I think it is a big Budget, I think there will be some things in it people like, some things people don’t like. 

“That is in the nature of facing up to big decisions.”   

A Cabinet minister would not be drawn on who will be left worse off by the Budget on Wednesday. 

Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, told Sky News: “I can’t speak about the individual measures. What I can say is we will stabilise the finances, start to turn around the public services especially the NHS, and get the investment the country needs for the future.” 

Mr McFadden said it will be a “big Budget” with “difficult decisions” but it will put the nation on a “better path”.

Pat McFadden was unable to say if small business owners would be covered by Labour’s “working people” tax pledge. 

The Government is widely expected in increase employers’ National Insurance contributions at the Budget on Wednesday. 

Told that small business owners were surely “working people” and should therefore be covered by the pledge, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster told Sky News: Let’s see what the Budget says. When we go into individual taxes beyond what was in our manifesto, let’s see what the Budget says. 

“There has been all sorts of speculation in recent weeks that this might happen and that might happen. We are in that period two days before the Budget where I can’t tell you the individual measures…” 

Pat McFadden said some landlords could be considered to be “working people” but some could not. 

Asked if landlords fell under Labour’s “working people” tax pledge, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster told Sky News: “Honestly, I am not going to run around [on this]. Some of them will, some of them won’t. 

“The point is, will we stick to the promises we made in the manifesto, yes, we will.”

Labour’s pledge not to increase taxes on “working people” only covers National Insurance, income tax and VAT, a senior Cabinet minister suggested this morning. 

Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, said Labour will not increase any of those three levies but he left the door open to increases elsewhere. 

Labour’s manifesto stated: “Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”

Ministers have been unable to give a specific definition of “working people” while critics have argued the manifesto pledge appeared to be broader than just those three taxes. 

Asked who he believed were not “working people”, Mr McFadden told Sky News: “I don’t think it is about a definition of this job, that job, some income level where if you earn a pound more than that you are not a working person. 

“I have seen these questions asked in recent days. What we were talking about [in the manifesto] was those central tax pledges on income tax, National Insurance and VAT. 

“That is what we meant when we used that language and we will keep to those promises in the Budget on Wednesday.” 

Sir Keir Starmer has appointed a former aide to Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown as his new political director.

Claire Reynolds will be in charge of liaising with MPs across the Parliamentary Labour Party as the Prime Minister takes a series of unpopular decisions he says are needed to fix public services, as first reported by The Guardian.

The director of the Labour Women’s Network has been credited with helping 100 female candidates win seats at the general election and will now take on a senior role in Downing Street.

Ms Reynolds is married to Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and previously worked in No 10’s political office under prime ministers Sir Tony and Mr Brown. She will be paid by the Labour Party.

The Budget will not cause an increase in mortgage rates, Sir Keir Starmer has insisted. 

The Prime Minister said there would be “no return to the chaos that sent mortgages soaring when the Tories let borrowing get out of control”. 

Writing in The Mirror today, Sir Keir said: “This Budget will deliver on our promise that there will be no return to the austerity that hampered growth and hollowed out our public services.

“And there will be no return to the chaos that sent mortgages soaring when the Tories let borrowing get out of control.

“This Budget chooses a different path: Honest, responsible, long-term decisions in the interests of working people. It’s stability that means we can invest, and reform that will maximise that investment.”

Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, has been warned that her plan to change debt rules to allow more borrowing for investment could spook the financial markets and result in interest rates staying higher for longer. 

Sir Keir will deliver a speech later today in which he will say the Budget on Wednesday will embrace the “harsh light of fiscal reality” but “better days are ahead”.