By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:13 | Updated at 2026-08-04 03:45:10
4 weeks ago
England emerged victorious in a thrilling World Cup last-16 game against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca. The Three Lions looked as good as they ever have under Thomas Tuchel, despite having very little possession.
Here we are again. After decades of disappointment, upsets and heartbreaks, England have improved their record at major tournaments in recent campaigns, and following their dramatic 3-2 win against Mexico, they are into the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have been far from the most impressive team in North America, but they have always seemed (relatively) in control, even if they were not physically in control of the ball.
They opened their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign with an exciting 4-2 win over Croatia, followed up by a drab 0-0 draw against Ghana, before they wore down a resolute Panama defence to top Group L with a 2-0 victory.
The first 23 minutes against DR Congo gave many a scare as they fell behind, but Harry Kane pulled through with two second-half goals to send the Three Lions to the last 16 to play Mexico at the Azteca.
This game had ‘banana skin’ written all over it. England had to travel a long way to play against a host nation in a stadium in which Mexico have an outstanding record, and the Three Lions had previous trauma. There was also the much-discussed altitude issue, with the stadium a whopping 2,200 metres above sea level.
Despite these factors being against them, and a lot of nerves, Tuchel’s men never really looked like losing the game.
What is particularly surprising is that they were able to keep Mexico at arm’s length while having very little possession. England had just 33.2% of the ball in Mexico City, their lowest in a World Cup match since records began in 1966.
Some may point out that Jarell Quansah’s red card in the 54th minute will have been a major factor in that, but Mexico had dominated possession prior to that.
Between the 20th and the 35th minute, just before Jude Bellingham scored his quickfire brace, Mexico had 65.6% of the ball. Despite the negative physiological effects of running more at a high altitude, the Three Lions were happy enough chasing the ball, though they were noticeably standing off more than usual, likely not wanting to do any unnecessary sprinting in those conditions.
Across the first half, Tuchel’s side had just 37.2% possession, yet were good value for their 2-1 lead. England created two big chances to Mexico’s one, and generated 0.75 expected goals (xG), again, more than El Tri (0.44).
For further context, England produced a mere 0.31 xG in the first half against Ghana when they had a whopping 78.4% of the ball, and only created 0.50 xG in the first 45 minutes against Panama when they had 71.9% possession. They failed to create a big chance in the first half of either of those games.
The Three Lions going down to 10 men with 36 minutes of normal time to go naturally reduced their ability to keep hold of the ball. Yet Mexico struggled to create opportunities for large portions of the half, and Kane’s 60th minute penalty restored England’s two-goal buffer.
Before they were awarded a penalty in the 67th minute, Mexico had not even created 0.5 xG. Raúl Jiménez converted from 12 yards out, and this was the catalyst for the Mexican onslaught of Jordan Pickford’s goal.
In the final 20 minutes (which ended up being the final 31 minutes due to the amount of additional time), Mexico had 83% possession, made 79 passes in the final third, and put 32 crosses into the box. But they could not breach the England defence. In fact, they didn’t even create a big chance.
How were England able to remain so defensively solid despite having virtually none of the ball?
Tuchel’s squad selection, which has been incessantly questioned throughout the tournament, was centred on moments like this when the Three Lions had to suffer without the ball.
Tuchel brought Dan Burn, an excellent penalty box defender, onto the pitch for the first time in North America, and the Geordie giant put in what can only be described as a monstrous performance. Burn made six clearances and two blocks in his late-game cameo, the joint-highest of any player on the pitch.
In total, England made 49 clearances against Mexico, their fourth-most in a men’s World Cup game on record (since 1966), and their most since a 1-0 win over Belgium in 1990 (54), which went to extra-time.
This fabled night in Mexico City showed the world what “Tuchel-ball” truly is.
It centres on a desire to constantly run and put bodies on the line, run without the ball, coupled with the flair and physicality of players like Kane, Bellingham and Bukayo Saka to make an impact in the moments when the Three Lions have possession.
Next up for England is a quarter-final clash with Norway, who controlled their game against Brazil, having 66% possession as an Erling Haaland brace put the Seleção to the sword. It was the first time Brazil have not had at least 40% of the ball in a men’s World Cup match on record (since 1966).
With some help from Ørjan Nyland, Ståle Solbakken’s side were able to contain the counter-attacking threat posed by Vinícius Júnior and co. while dominating the ball against Carlo Ancelotti’s men, but they are also equally happy without possession, as they showed in their 3-2 win against Senegal when they had just 42% of the ball.
It will be interesting to see what style of play Solbakken employs against the Three Lions given what they have shown at the Azteca, and also to see if England can continue to be this effective while having so little possession if that is ultimately the case.
It’s too early to say that anything is ‘coming home’, but there were certainly positive signs for England in Mexico City.
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