No rise in private school closures in England since Labour’s VAT proposal, data shows

More than 80 private schools closed every year in England on average over the last decade, official data has shown, with no apparent increase in the trend since Labour announced it was imposing VAT on fees.

A number of media reports have highlighted the closure of some private schools as supposedly being caused by the policy, which is intended to raise money for more teachers in state schools.

The Conservatives have also said it will lead to a rush of private school closures, increasing pressures on the state sector. Kemi Badenoch, the favourite to succeed Rishi Sunak as party leader, has said rescinding the policy would be the first thing she would do if she became prime minister.

But data from a government register of private schools in England, collated in response to a parliamentary question tabled by the shadow education secretary, Damian Hinds, indicated that a churn in individual institutions is a longstanding trend.

Since 1987, when data started to be collected, 2,583 schools have opened and 2,674 have shut. In the decade from 2013 to 2023, 847 schools closed – an average of nearly 85 a year.

The 2024 data, which goes up to 6 October, shows that 46 schools have closed, slightly below the average trend, with 77 opening.

While the Conservatives and the private school sector say that the real effects will be felt after the VAT is imposed from 1 January, the data seems to indicate that there has yet to be a notable impact despite a series of schools blaming closure on the prospect of the VAT imposition.

The Daily Telegraph, which opposes the policy, has reported nine private schools closing since May which have cited the change. However, on the decade-long average, about seven schools a month would be expected to close anyway.

A government source said: “Independent schools are evidently in rude health, despite the fearmongering of the private schools lobby and their Tory MP lackeys. Despite year-on-year fee increases for more than a decade, private schools are welcoming more pupils through their doors than ever before.

“What’s more, the number of schools that have closed each year rubbishes the idea that the threat of VAT has tipped schools over the edge – the reality is individual closures are commonplace, largely because schools are poorly run.”

Hinds said: “Clearly, there is going to be movement of pupils from independent schools to state schools, and in some of the places affected there are few available places, especially at secondary.

“If Labour had just published analysis in an impact assessment by now then there wouldn’t be anything to be overblown. We just don’t know if they have a projection of those effects and are not telling us, or simply don’t know and are making it up as they go along.”