By Opta Analyst | Created at 2026-07-18 17:28:13 | Updated at 2026-08-02 20:42:43
3 weeks ago
Two of the world’s best strikers go head to head as Norway face England in the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Norway vs England: The Key Insights
- England defeated Norway in 49.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations.
- Only Brazil (14) and Germany (14) have qualified for more FIFA World Cup quarter finals than England, with this set to be their 11th appearance at this stage in the competition.
- Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last 14 competitive outings for Norway (27 goals in total during this period), finding the back of the net in all four of his appearances at the 2026 FIFA World Cup so far.
Norway and England will go to battle in a hot and humid Miami on Saturday in what the Opta supercomputer regards as the most evenly matched quarter-final tie at this World Cup.
England progressed to the semi-finals in 61.7% of the supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations, with Norway making up the remaining 38.4%.
In the simulations before the quarter-finals had started, France (73.9% vs Morocco), Spain (69.8% vs Belgium) and Argentina (69.4% vs Switzerland) all reached the final four in a higher share of instances than England.
This is untrodden ground for Norway, who have reached the quarter-finals of a major tournament for the first time in their history. But by beating Brazil – the competition’s most successful nation – in the last round, they have proven themselves a worthy adversary.
They have won all but one game so far, losing on Matchday 3 when making 10 changes to their starting line-up against current tournament favourites France.
They would have won Group I if they had beaten France, but Ståle Solbakken’s decision to settle for second place while resting his starters has proven beneficial after hard-fought wins against Ivory Coast and Brazil.
Their games have been genuinely entertaining, too, with goals for and against in each of their five matches to date. They have scored 12 goals and conceded nine; Germany in 1954 are the only example of a side both scoring and conceding at least 10 times on their way to the semi-final.
England’s games have been a mixed bag, but their triumph against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca in the last round was a game for the ages and suggestive of a squad containing the necessary combination of skill, determination and luck required to go a long way in the competition.
In contrast to Norway, they have been here many times before. Only Brazil (14) and Germany (14) have qualified for more World Cup quarter-finals than England (11), although their record at this stage does not inspire confidence.
England have progressed from just three of their previous 10 World Cup quarter-final matches and have conceded multiple goals in seven of those ties.
Stopping Erling Haaland is their main obstacle to improving that record. In what has come as a surprise to absolutely no one, the Manchester City forward has taken to the World Cup stage like a duck to water, and his star is continuing to rise across the pond as a result.
Haaland has scored in each of his first four World Cup appearances, netting seven times from just 18 shots. The last player to score in his first five matches at the tournament was James Rodríguez for Colombia in 2014, while the last European player to do so was Gerd Müller for Germany in 1970.
His goals have been meaningful, too, with four of them proving to be match-winners. Only Poland’s Grzegorz Lato in 1974 and Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci in 1990 have scored more match-winning goals in a single campaign in the competition’s history (both five).
Haaland’s achievements have improved his already spectacular international record. He has scored 62 goals in 54 appearances for Norway, and he has not attained that record by boosting his numbers in friendly matches; indeed, Haaland has scored in 14 consecutive competitive games for Norway, netting an astonishing 27 goals in the process.
Jordan Pickford, who could surpass Peter Shilton as England’s all-time leading appearance maker at the World Cup with an 18th such outing in this match, is no stranger to Haaland’s exploits.
Pickford has conceded seven of the 10 on-target shots he has faced from Haaland in the Premier League; the Norwegian has only scored more goals in the competition against José Sa (10), Alphonse Areola (nine) and Bernd Leno (eight).
But England have weapons of their own – namely Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham.
Kane is one behind Haaland in the World Cup Golden Boot race, with six goals, a total he also reached at the tournament’s 2018 edition. Gary Lineker, in 1986, is the only other England player to net as many times at a single World Cup.
He almost always turns up, too, with 11 goals in his 12 knockout stage games at major international tournaments.
After scoring twice against Mexico, Bellingham isn’t too far behind, with four goals at this tournament. It’s already the most goals a midfielder has scored for England at a single World Cup.
Haaland, Kane, Bellingham. This fixture possesses multiple players capable of taking the game by the scruff of the neck, but only one can be the hero.
Norway vs England Head-to-Head
Norway and England have met 12 times prior, with this being their first meeting since a 1-0 friendly win for the Three Lions in September 2014. Overall, Norway have won just two of those 12 matches, failing to score in any of their last four.
England have been eliminated from five of their last six World Cup knockout round matches against European opposition, and each of their last three in succession. Their latest defeat saw them lose 2-1 to France at the quarter-final stage of the 2022 tournament.
Norway have failed to win any of their six World Cup games against fellow European opposition (D2 L4), losing both of their prior knockout stage matches against such sides – 2-1 in 1938 and 1-0 in 1998, both against Italy.
Norway vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer views England as favourites to reach the semi-finals, winning the game in 49.5% of 25,000 pre-match simulations. Meanwhile, the supercomputer gives them a 61.7% chance of progressing via any method.
The next most likely result is a Norway win, at 25.8%, while a draw occurred in 24.7% of sims.
Norway vs England Squads
Norway: Ørjan Nyland, Sander Tangvik, Egil Selvik, Kristoffer Ajer, Leo Østigård, David Møller Wolfe, Fredrik Bjørkan, Marcus Pedersen, Torbjørn Heggem, Sondre Langås, Henrik Falchener, Julian Ryerson, Morten Thorsby, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Ødegaard, Fredrik Aursnes, Kristian Thorstvedt, Thelo Aasgaard, Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb, Jens Petter Hauge, Alexander Sørloth, Erling Haaland, Jørgen Strand Larsen, Andreas Schjelderup.
England: Jordan Pickford, Dean Henderson, James Trafford, Ezri Konsa, Nico O’Reilly, John Stones, Marc Guéhi, Tino Livramento, Dan Burn, Reece James, Djed Spence, Jarell Quansah, Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson, Jude Bellingham, Jordan Henderson, Kobbie Mainoo, Morgan Rogers, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Gordon, Ollie Watkins, Noni Madueke, Ivan Toney.
Norway vs England Predicted Lineups
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