By Free Republic | Created at 2024-11-01 17:26:28 | Updated at 2024-11-01 20:26:44
3 hours ago
Odds of a Harris Win Rise Sharply on a Top Forecasting Platform
Marketwatch ^ | Nov. 1, 2024 | Paul R. La Monica
Posted on 11/01/2024 10:18:31 AM PDT by lasereye
It’s still anybody’s guess who will win the race for the White House but one prominent prediction market, reflecting bets on the outcome, is suggesting that there may be momentum for Kamala Harris.
Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, said in a statement Friday morning that Harris “engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback” on the company’s ForecastTrader platform on Thursday night. He noted that the probability of her defeating Donald Trump rose from 38% a day earlier to 44% late Thursday, adding that there was volume of about $40 million for the Harris trade.
ForecastTrader is one of several betting markets that Wall Street has been looking at in the past few weeks. Several other prominent platforms, such as PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket, all still show much greater odds of a Trump win, ranging from about a 56% to 62% probability that he will be elected as the 47th president. But chances of a Harris victory have risen modestly on these sites as well in recent days.
While Interactive Brokers is also only predicting a 44% chance of a Harris win, that is up from just 38% earlier this week. Peterffy said the shift it is probably not due to market manipulation.
He acknowledged that “many observers worry that prediction markets could distort election outcomes, but that is unlikely.” Peterffy pointed out that the major prediction markets are also regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which means that there would be serious consequences if anyone tried to game the system and make it look like one candidate had a bigger chance of winning.
“Market manipulation is a criminal offense punishable by fines and jail, and regulated exchanges are required to investigate and report suspicious activities,” he said. “Therefore, manipulation is unlikely to have been the cause.”
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: betting; harris; interactivebrokers; polymarket; thomaspeterffy; trump
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Naturally this article is featured prominently at Marketwatch. If you bother to actually read it Trump's still the clear favorite. I have a hunch there weren't any articles at all, let alone ones featured on the front page, when Trump shot out to the lead in the betting markets.
As for Trump's odds of winning narrowing, I don't think he should have been a 60%+ betting favorite in the first place.
Some sharp bettors who already placed bets on Trump at something like even odds are probably putting money on Harris now, because they are getting very good odds of around 2-1 should she win. It's called hedging. If they timed their bets correctly, they will make money no matter which one wins.
1 posted on 11/01/2024 10:18:31 AM PDT by lasereye
To: lasereye
Article:
“Market manipulation is a criminal offense punishable by fines and jail”....
if you are a Republican.
Democrats have a “get out of jail free” card at the DOJ.
The Department of Just Us.
2 posted on 11/01/2024 10:21:15 AM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
To: lasereye
Once the odds in any “market” get out of balance, forces will move to rebalance. This is especially true if you can cash out before the event and make a profit.
This story means little to anyone who has bet on stuff in the past.
3 posted on 11/01/2024 10:23:17 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
To: lasereye
Didn’t we hear from leftist all last week that right-wingers were crazy for looking at betting markets showing a clear Trump victory?
4 posted on 11/01/2024 10:23:34 AM PDT by frogjerk
To: lasereye
“Harris “engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback””
That is just downright laughable. Bwahahahahaha
5 posted on 11/01/2024 10:24:52 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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