Oil Falls on Hormuz Freight Risk; Petrobras Slides

Oil — the daily wrap. (Photo internet reproduction)

01 The session in one read

The WTI-tracking USO fund closed down 1.80% at US$132.21 on Monday, August 24, 2026. Traders sold the energy complex after Iran blacklisted 45 oil, LNG, LPG and product tankers using the Strait of Hormuz.

The threat includes fines, detention and cargo confiscation, aimed at vessels tied to two of the Gulf’s biggest producers. Houthi militants separately said they targeted the Saudi tanker Amzan off Yanbu in the Red Sea with a ballistic missile and drones.

Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras fell 2.87% to US$18.60, the sharpest drop among regional oil names. Argentine producer YPF was the outlier, up 0.20% at US$51.28.

02 The board

Petrobras shares in New York dropped 2.87% to US$18.60 even though the company’s pre-salt portfolio keeps growing. Colombia’s Ecopetrol slipped 1.14% to US$17.33.

YPF edged up 0.20% to US$51.28 as investors rewarded its asset sales and the rising share of shale barrels from Vaca Muerta. The divergence shows Latin American oil exposure is not one trade; geopolitics hit headline names, while company-specific Vaca Muerta momentum held.

Source: RT close, 2026-08-24. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.

What Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras does. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces…

03 What moved it

The direct catalyst was Iran’s blacklisting of 45 tankers using the Strait of Hormuz. The risk is not an immediate supply drop, but the threat of detention and confiscation that could strand cargoes.

The Houthi attack on the Amzan off Yanbu added to unease, with Saudi shipping firm Bahri confirming its vessel was involved. Any escalation in the Red Sea corridor forces tankers toward longer routes, raising freight costs.

TotalEnergies added a defensive twist on Monday, saying it will invest in two pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That signals a market preparing for persistent chokepoint risk even if oil still flows today.

04 The Latin American read

Petrobras is leaning on the pre-salt as its production engine. The Tupi field in the Santos Basin has surpassed 4 billion barrels of cumulative output and now averages around 1 million barrels of oil per day in 2026.

Across the company, 28 of its 57 operated production assets sit exclusively in the pre-salt. That scale means any global price slip quickly hits Brazil’s export and fiscal story, which is partly why Petrobras underperformed.

In Argentina, YPF is selling non-core assets to fund shale. It sold its 50% stake in fertiliser maker Profertil for US$635 million to Adecoagro and divested the Manantiales Behr fields for US$410 million to PECOM.

YPF has raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to US$5.8–6.2 billion. It is guiding average shale-oil output near 215,000 barrels per day with an exit rate around 250,000 barrels per day, helped by Halliburton’s Zeus electric fracturing fleet arriving in Neuquén from the fourth quarter of 2026.

05 The names to watch

Petrobras is exporting the pre-salt playbook. It has joined Pemex in a pre-salt exploration partnership offshore Campeche, targeting deep Jurassic-age rocks after Pemex’s unsuccessful attempt in 2018.

Guyana remains the region’s fastest-moving oil story. The Stabroek Block has produced 1 billion barrels since December 2019, and the government lifted its effective take to 39.8% on August 18, 2026.

Argentina LNG, backed by YPF, Eni and XRG, has submitted a US$51 billion integrated LNG project under the Large Investment Incentive Regime. About US$29 billion is planned by 2031, with targeted annual export revenues of US$10 billion over two decades.

06 The outlook

The market is now caught between abundant Latin American supply and rising chokepoint risk. Until Iran’s tanker blacklist becomes a real seizure, traders may treat it as noise, but the premium is returning fast.

Watch Pemex’s Campeche pre-salt work with Petrobras and the ramp-up of YPF’s Zeus electric fleet. Both signal Latin America’s answer to disruption: more barrels from politically safer basins closer to open shipping lanes.

07 What to watch

• Iran tanker enforcement: Watch whether any blacklisted vessel is actually detained or fined; enforcement would lift the WTI-tracking USO fund.
• Red Sea shipping routes: Watch for further Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, which would raise freight costs and widen regional crude spreads.
• YPF Vaca Muerta ramp: Watch for updates on Halliburton’s Zeus electric fracturing fleet deployment in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Guyana production step-up: Watch for the next Stabroek project lift of about 250,000 barrels per day later in 2026, which would boost Guyana’s export share.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did USO fall on Monday?

The WTI-tracking fund dropped 1.80% to US$132.21 after Iran blacklisted 45 tankers and Houthis hit a Saudi tanker, raising disruption costs without yet cutting supply.

Why did Petrobras underperform?

Petrobras fell 2.87% to US$18.60 even with strong Tupi pre-salt output, because any global oil slip quickly hits Brazil’s export and fiscal picture.

What is happening in Vaca Muerta?

YPF is selling assets to raise about US$1 billion for shale drilling and will deploy Halliburton’s Zeus electric fracturing fleet in Neuquén from the fourth quarter of 2026.

How is Pemex responding?

Pemex is partnering with Petrobras to explore pre-salt targets offshore Campeche, aiming to replicate Brazil’s deep-water success in Mexican waters.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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