Opta Supercomputer Predictions, Matheus Cunha, and xG in the EFL

By Opta Analyst | Created at 2024-11-20 22:39:47 | Updated at 2024-11-21 06:29:16 7 hours ago

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at Europe’s top five league predictions, Matheus Cunha’s form, and xG in the EFL.

The smoke has cleared after last week’s Bonfire Night in England, but there were plenty more fireworks in the Premier League over the weekend.

Liverpool extended their lead at the top, Manchester City lost a fourth game in a row in all competitions, Chelsea and Arsenal played out a tense draw at Stamford Bridge, while Wolves and Ipswich finally won games of football. It almost had everything.

In this week’s SVQ, we’ll be looking at one of the main players in one of those games, and it’s probably not the game you’d assume. We’re heading to Wolverhampton to analyse a Brazilian’s superb form.

We’ll also be deviating from the Premier League, visiting the EFL to look at some xG with our Ask Opta question, but first let’s take a tour of Europe to see how the other big leagues are getting on.

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STAT – Europe’s Top Predictions

We get asked all the time about the Opta supercomputer. What is it? Is it a real computer? What does it feed on?

They are mostly silly questions, it obviously feeds on numbers and hope, but we wanted to ask a question of our own. How are Europe’s top leagues looking after three months of the 2024-25 season?

We’ve already looked at the latest season projections for the Premier League, with Liverpool the new favourites in England, but what about the rest of Europe?

In La Liga, pre-season favourites Real Madrid had been faltering behind Barcelona, especially when they were thumped by their bitter rivals 4-0 on their own turf a few weeks ago.

However, this weekend saw Madrid claw three points back after they beat Osasuna and Hansi Flick’s men went down 1-0 at Real Sociedad. Barça remain six points clear, though, and the supercomputer sees them as favourites to win the La Liga title.

The Blaugrana have a 69.0% chance of finishing top, according to the supercomputer, while Real Madrid only retain their title in 29.8% of simulations. Atlético Madrid are only a point behind their city rivals but have just a 1.1% likelihood of upsetting the manzana cart and winning the league in Spain.

You would think the toughest league to predict would be Serie A, given how tight things are at the top in Italy. After their 1-1 draw with Inter on Sunday, Antonio Conte’s Napoli remain top on 26 points, ahead of four teams on 25 (including Inter) and Juventus one point further back on 24.

However, the supercomputer is sticking to its guns. Inter were heavy favourites at the start of the season to retain the Scudetto, and still are, winning it in 66.2% of simulations, despite sitting fourth after 12 games.

Atalanta are considered second favourites, probably due to their favourable Opta Power Ranking after winning the Europa League last season. They are second but go on to win their first ever Serie A title in 18.0% of sims, well ahead of leaders Napoli, who do so in just 2.1%. In fact, presumably due to their poor 2023-24 season, Napoli win the title in even fewer sims than both Juventus (7.2%) and Lazio (4.6%). Fiorentina (1.3%) and Milan (0.7%) are considered outsiders.

In France, Paris Saint-Germain were big favourites at the start of the season, and to little surprise, that has been cemented since. PSG are six points clear of Monaco at the top of Ligue 1 after 11 games and go on to win another title in a whopping 94.1% of simulations. Monaco (4.3%) and Lille (1.2%) are the only two teams to finish first in more than 1% of sims.

Like England and Spain, Germany has seen a swing from one favourite to another, and quite a big one.

Bayer Leverkusen led the way with the supercomputer at the start of the season, but their recent wobbly form has seen them fall nine points off the pace after just 10 games. Xabi Alonso’s men still sit in fourth place, but they retain their Bundesliga title in just 10.1% of sims now. Nevertheless, they remain second favourites ahead of RB Leipzig (5.9%), Borussia Dortmund (0.9%) and Eintracht Frankfurt (0.7%).

Bayern Munich have wrestled the benefit of the doubt back after their impressive start, winning eight of their 10 Bundesliga games (D2). They regain the Meisterschale in 83.2% of sims.

Maybe Harry Kane will finally win a trophy after all.

There is still a long way to go, though, and plenty more revelations to come from the Opta supercomputer as the season goes on. Keep checking in with Opta Analyst to find out the latest.

VIZ – Marvellous Matheus

Matheus Cunha goal involvements since 11 Nov 2023

Wolves were howling with delight on Saturday as they finally secured their first win of the season.

Their 2-0 victory over Southampton was like a breath of fresh air at Molineux, and one man seemed to be at the centre of everything good Wolves did, as usual.

Matheus Cunha provided the assist for Pablo Sarabia’s early opener, before firing in the second with a delicious strike to seal victory early in the second half.

Despite Wolves not having the best start to the season, when good things happen, they usually involve Cunha.

The Brazilian has had a hand in 23 goals across his last 28 Premier League starts (15 goals, 8 assists) across the last 12 months (since 11 November 2023). Only six players have more goal involvements in the Premier League in that time, and all have played at least 100 minutes more than Cunha.

He has produced his 15 goals from just 8.9 expected goals, almost doubling his expected output in front of goal.

If Wolves are to survive relegation this season, Cunha will surely be vital in steering them clear. He has created more chances from open play than any of his teammates (12) in the Premier League in 2024-25 and has attempted more than twice as many shots as any other Wolves player (31).

The biggest headache for Gary O’Neil could be making sure he keeps the 25-year-old in the January transfer window. With several big clubs potentially looking to sign an attacker when the window opens, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the sharks circling Molineux.

For the time being, Wolves fans can enjoy seeing one of the Premier League’s form players doing his thing. Cunha can become this generation’s Steve Bull, which we’re sure was his childhood dream growing up in João Pessoa.

QUIZ – Slot’s Record Run, Barnes’ Sub Success, and Bruno’s Brilliance

Prepare that big brain of yours for some football trivia. We believe in you! As ever, answers are at the bottom of the page.

1. Brighton’s Matt O’Riley became the first player to score against Manchester City on his Premier League debut since who for Tottenham Hotspur in February 2020?

2. Arne Slot has earned 28 points from his first 11 Premier League games in charge of Liverpool (W9 D1 L1), the joint-most by a manager after as many games in the competition along with which former Chelsea boss?

3. Harvey Barnes has scored six goals as a substitute for Newcastle United. Name either of the two players to have scored more sub goals in the Premier League for the club.

4. Bruno Fernandes made his 250th appearance for Manchester United on Sunday, scoring in the 3-0 win over Leicester City. How many goal involvements does he have for the Red Devils? A) 115, B) 135, or C) 155?

5. Arsenal’s Martin Ødegaard made his first Premier League appearance since August against Brighton – he registered his eighth assist from open play in the competition in 2024. Who are the only two players to record more this calendar year?

Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Steve M, who asks: “I’m curious about xG in the lower leagues. Is anyone in the EFL massively over or underperforming against their xG this season?”

Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to editors@theanalyst.com and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.

Answer:

Thank you, Steve. Anything that gives us an excuse to look at EFL data is always most welcome.

Indeed, yes, there are some teams who are significantly overperforming against their xG this season. Top of that particular table are Wycombe Wanderers, who have scored 32 goals in League One despite having an xG of just 21.8. Their overperformance of 10.2 goals is more than anyone else in the second, third or fourth tier in England.

Chesterfield are back in the EFL this season and are also scoring goals with tremendous efficiency, finding the net 28 times in League Two from an xG of just 19.7, while Wrexham’s first season back in the third tier has seen them score 22 times from just 14.6 xG.

The highest overperformers in the Championship are, probably unsurprisingly, leaders Sunderland. Regis Le Bris’ Black Cats have scored 25 goals from 18.2 xG.

As for underperformance, the worst culprits are Swansea City. The Welsh side have scored just 11 times from 19.3 xG, while not far behind are Steve Evans’ Rotherham United, with 14 goals from 21.5 xG.

Middlesbrough have the third-worst underperformance with 23 goals scored from 28.0 xG, though that was improved after a weekend that saw them beat Luton Town 5-1 from just 1.32 xG.

We have Opta data hubs for the Championship, League One and League Two, including detailed team and player stats, predictions, expected league tables and much more. Click below to start your own data investigations.