By Variety | Created at 2024-09-23 22:30:44 | Updated at 2024-09-30 09:24:59
6 days ago
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): The race for best actor is beginning to take shape, with multiple confirmations and declarations coming from hopeful awards contenders.
Variety can exclusively confirm that Cannes Best Actor winner Jesse Plemons and veteran star Michael Keaton will submit for lead actor consideration for their respective films, “Kinds of Kindness” by Yorgos Lanthimos and “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” by Tim Burton.
Plemons is poised for a well-deserved run for his role in Lanthimos’ dark anthology comedy, which features the 36-year-old actor in three distinct vignettes: Robert, a man controlled by his boss; Daniel, a policeman whose wife returns under strange circumstances after a research trip; and Andrew, a devoted cult follower. The Texas-born actor has built a remarkable career, starting with hit TV series like “Breaking Bad” and moving on to memorable film roles in “Game Night” (2018), “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” (2020), and “The Power of the Dog” (2021), which earned him his first Oscar nomination for supporting actor, alongside his real-life partner Kirsten Dunst.
His standout scene in Alex Garland’s post-apocalyptic “Civil War” will also help bolster his chances. However, the narrative structure of “Kinds of Kindness” could pose a challenge, as the Oscars have historically been less inclined to embrace anthologies.
As for Keaton, who narrowly missed the best actor Oscar for the best picture winner “Birdman” (2014), he reprises his role as the ghoulish and sleazy “bio-exorcist” in “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” which could strike a yearning nostalgic chord with the Actors Branch, especially in a year that’s not as competitive as previous ones.
Burton’s fantastical horror-comedy sequel hopes for some Academy love this awards season. The 1988 original won an Academy Award for best makeup, and Warner Bros. is gearing up for an awards push to replicate that success, perhaps even more. Aside from the genre bias against comedies, a significant hurdle for Keaton is his limited screen time. As in the first film, he only appears in approximately 20-25 minutes of the 92-minute feature. This may not be easy to overcome, even with the film surpassing $300 million globally at the box office.
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have delivered one likely strong contender: two-time Oscar nominee Ralph Fiennes for his portrayal of a Catholic cardinal tasked with organizing the election of the next pope in Edward Berger’s thriller “Conclave.” He joins a small list of likely hopefuls, such as recent Oscar nominee Colman Domingo for the A24 prison drama “Sing Sing,” positioning them both near the forefront of these early days of the race.
There’s also a double dose of Sebastian Stan this fall with the Sundance breakout hit “A Different Man” and the politically charged drama “The Apprentice,” covering the early years of Donald Trump. Could one of Stan’s films earn the Emmy-nominated “Pam & Tommy” star his first career Oscar nod?
However, it’s only September, and a few unknowns are still on the horizon (pun intended).
The cinematic world is eagerly awaiting Timothée Chalamet’s transformation into legendary folk singer Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” while Paramount Pictures is preparing one of its most substantial awards pushes in years with Ridley Scott’s epic sequel “Gladiator II,” starring Paul Mescal and Denzel Washington.
Read the new updates and rankings below.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
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Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)RankPerformer & Film 1 Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 2 Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 3 Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24) 4 Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 5 Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24) -
Image Credit: Briarcliff Entertainment
Next in Line
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)RankPerformer & Film 6 Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 7 Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 8 John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 9 Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 10 Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Film Constellation
Other Contenders
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)RankPerformer & Film 11 Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) 12 Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24) 13 Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 14 Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 15 Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24) 16 Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) 17 Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures) 18 Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 19 Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 20 André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions) -
Image Credit: Sean Gleason
Also In Contention
Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)RankPerformer & Film 21 Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) ** 22 Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment) 23 Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 24 Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix) 25 Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) 26 Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 27 René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 28 Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 29 Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) 30 Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) -
Eligible Performers (Best Actor)
Image Credit: A24
This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Robbie Williams — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jason Schwartzman — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Channing Tatum — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Lakieth Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24)
- Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment)
- Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) **
- Ryan Reynolds — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Izaac Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- George MacKay — “The End” (Neon) **
- Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **
- Hitoshi Omika — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions)
- Ryan Gosling — “The Fall Guy” (Universal Pictures)
- Jude Law — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions) **
- Keith Kupferer — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films)
- Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **
- Michael Keaton — “Goodrich” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)
- Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Justice Smith — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “The Idea of You” (Amazon Studios)
- René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Casey Affleck — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Matt Damon — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Tom Hiddleston — “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Adam Driver — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Dev Patel — “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Brandon Wilson — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) **
- Nicholas Hoult — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
- Anthony Hopkins — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24)
- Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kauchani Bratt — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **
- Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Glen Powell — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Tom Hardy — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- Blake Cameron Jones — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Gian Knight Ramirez — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Demián Bichir — “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Daniel Zovatto — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) **
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More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
Image Credit: Variety via Getty Images
2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)—— Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
