Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Ralph Fiennes is Early Frontrunner, Anxiously Waiting for ‘A Complete Unknown’ Performance to Drop

By Variety | Created at 2024-11-14 18:31:14 | Updated at 2024-11-22 04:12:46 1 week ago
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role

Searchlight Pictures

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov 14, 2024): Following his success with “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which won four Oscars, director Edward Berger returns with the political and religious thriller “Conclave,” propelling Ralph Fiennes back into the Oscar conversation for Best Actor. Fiennes, who last received an Oscar nod for his roles in best picture winners “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “The English Patient” (1996), is widely viewed as overdue for recognition. His consistent, lauded performances in films like “The Grand Budapest Hotel” have only deepened the puzzling absence of a Best Actor win on his resume, making his prospects for “Conclave” one of this season’s most compelling narratives.

Adrien Brody, an Oscar winner for his role in 2002’s “The Pianist,” is also making a significant comeback with his performance in “The Brutalist.” While Brody has maintained a steady career with roles in “King Kong,” “Midnight in Paris,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” his post-Oscar trajectory hasn’t always commanded the same attention. That might change this year, as his intense portrayal of László Tóth has generated early praise, positioning him as a potential candidate to join the elite group of actors who have won multiple best actor Oscars. This distinguished club includes Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Marlon Brando.

Brody’s competition is formidable, with Ralph Fiennes’ “Conclave” performance and Colman Domingo’s “Sing Sing” work considered among the season’s most vital. Despite this stiff competition, Brody’s prior win doesn’t necessarily hinder his chances; if anything, the Academy has a tradition of recognizing previous winners. Since 2009, 54 individuals across all categories have won their second (or even third, fourth, and fifth) Oscars. Notably, nine of these repeat wins were in acting categories, with recipients including Daniel Day-Lewis, Meryl Streep, Anthony Hopkins, Frances McDormand, Mahershala Ali, Brad Pitt, Emma Stone, Christoph Waltz, and Renée Zellweger.

Adding further intrigue, the anticipation for Timothée Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in Searchlight Pictures’ “A Complete Unknown” is palpable, with buzz already building ahead of its first screenings and social reactions, set for next Wednesday, Nov. 20. One source who has viewed an unfinished cut noted, “Oh, he’s a contender!” Chalamet, who became the third-youngest Best Actor nominee in Academy history for “Call Me by Your Name” (2017) at age 22, could break Brody’s record for youngest best actor winner if he clinches the award this year. Chalamet, turning 29 in December, would beat Brody’s record by 279 days, a historic milestone for both young actors in the category.

As the best actor race heats up, these performances signal a season of diversity, with storied veterans and ambitious newcomers vying for the Academy’s attention. With a blend of past Oscar winners and younger talents poised to make history, this category is shaping to be one of the season’s most dynamic and closely watched.

Read the new updates and rankings below.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.

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