Oscar Predictions: Best Actress — Will Karla Sofía Gascón and Cynthia Erivo Break the 60 Year Drought of Dueling Diva Musical Nominees?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov 14, 2024): The best actress race is beginning to heat up.

Emerging as a viable contender in the race is Cynthia Erivo, who stars as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s highly anticipated “Wicked.” A Tony Award winner for “The Color Purple” and an Oscar nominee for “Harriet,” Erivo brings depth and nuance to her portrayal of the “wicked” witch, whose journey in the land of Oz is marked by a profound yearning for acceptance despite her magical powers. However, musical performances can be hit-or-miss with the Academy, and Erivo’s Oscar chances will likely depend on “Wicked’s” overall reception. The Academy has a history of favoring supporting performances from musicals, so Erivo’s lead status could either work in her favor or present a challenge.

Noteworthy, a nom for Erivo would make her only the second Black woman to receive two lead actress nominations (after Viola Davis) and the second performance from a musical since Dorothy Dandridge for “Carmen Jones” (1954), who is the first Black woman ever nominated in the category.

Historically, the best actress category has posed a unique hurdle for musical leads. Emma Stone’s win for “La La Land” (2016) was the last notable exception. Before that, Renée Zellweger’s nomination for “Chicago” (2002) marked a rare recognition of musical talent in the lead actress category. Erivo also faces intense competition from Karla Sofia Gascón, who stars in Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez.” Gascón’s portrayal of the title character brings a fresh complexity to the category, and she has the chance to make history as the first transgender performer nominated for Best Actress. Beyond this landmark possibility, it’s exceptionally rare for the Academy to recognize two musical performances in the same year. The last instance was in 1964 when Julie Andrews earned a nomination for “Mary Poppins” alongside Debbie Reynolds for “The Unsinkable Molly Brown.” That year, the best picture winner was the musical “My Fair Lady,” with Audrey Hepburn famously snubbed in the best actress race — a reminder of the Academy’s unpredictable approach to musical leads.

Established A-listers and previous Oscar winners such as Angelina Jolie for “Maria” and Tilda Swinton for “The Room Next Door” have been added to the category, and both are expected to garner serious consideration. The field also sees a groundswell of critical support for Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose revelatory role in Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” has made her a significant contender. Meanwhile, Saoirse Ronan is positioning herself for a notable awards run, with lead and supporting bids in two films: the recovery drama “The Outrun” and the World War II epic “Blitz.”

And then there’s the young ingenues rising to the top. In a bold reimagining of the rom-com classic “Pretty Woman,” Sean Baker’s “Anora” stars Mikey Madison as a high-end sex worker, delivering a layered performance that skillfully combines glamor and vulnerability. Madison’s portrayal has made her one of the year’s standout talents. As the film’s momentum grows, she’s becoming a serious contender for her first Oscar nomination — possibly even a win. If Madison, 25, won the Oscar for best actress, she would become one of the youngest winners in history, just behind Hilary Swank, who won at the same age for her influential role in “Boys Don’t Cry” (1999). But with the competition heating up as the season unfolds, her path to victory is far from guaranteed.

The updated best actress prediction charts are below.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.