Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Will ‘Wicked’ Defy Gravity for Awards Attention?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 14, 2024): Neon’s “Anora,” written and directed by Sean Baker, has topped the charts for the first time, building momentum as it garners near-universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike. With its sensitive portrayal of contemporary struggles, “Anora” has transcended the art-house niche, becoming one of the season’s most talked-about films. Its carefully paced release strategy and glowing word-of-mouth have placed it at the forefront of this year’s Oscar race, marking a potential high point in Baker’s career.

Universal Pictures, last season’s dominant studio, led by the success of Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” appears poised for another powerful award run with Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked.” Set to dominate the Thanksgiving weekend box office, “Wicked” is already stirring excitement. With stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande leading the cast, this adaptation has drawn attention for its lush visuals, iconic songs, and nostalgia, which could make it a box-office smash and a strong Oscar contender in major categories.

Interestingly, as “Wicked” stands next to another musical contender, “Emilia Perez” from Jacques Audiard, if both were to be nominated for best picture, it would be the first time since 1968’s “Funny Girl” and “Oliver” that two movies from the genre have made the cut.

Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” has also made an impact, albeit with a more mixed critical reception. The film currently holds a respectable 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a Metascore of 67, suggesting a solid, if not universally raved-about, response. History shows, however, that such scores don’t necessarily hinder a film’s awards prospects. Both James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” and the original “Gladiator” held similar Metascores, with “Gladiator” ultimately winning Best Picture. The first “Joker” (2019) scored 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and 59 on Metacritic but led the Oscar nominations with 11 nods. Likewise, Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book,” a divisive Best Picture winner, held a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 on Metacritic. Ultimately, critics’ reviews don’t always dictate a film’s Oscar fate, just as high praise doesn’t guarantee a nomination. Films like Debra Granik’s “Leave No Trace” (2018) and Remi Weekes’ “His House” (2020), both members of the 100% Rotten Tomatoes club, received critical acclaim but were overlooked by the Academy.

This weekend, the annual Governors Awards will offer this year’s contenders a prime opportunity to rub elbows with Academy members and industry heavyweights while celebrating cinematic veterans. Among those honored will be the late Quincy Jones, the first Black producer ever nominated for Best Picture, and legendary casting director Juliet Taylor, both of whom will receive honorary Oscars. The Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award will go to screenwriter and director Richard Curtis, whose work in philanthropy and film has left a lasting impact. James Bond producers Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli will be presented with the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award for their exceptional contributions to producing.

Below are the updated rankings of contenders. The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

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