By Variety | Created at 2025-01-04 01:39:18 | Updated at 2025-01-06 05:18:21
2 days ago
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Jan. 3, 2025): The BAFTA longlist has echoed the sentiment of this season even more — it’s all wide open for any film and any performance.
Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez,” a Spanish-language music thriller picked up by Netflix in Cannes, emerged ahead of the race with mentions in 15 categories, including best film, director, leading actress and three in the supporting actress list. Meanwhile, “Conclave,” Focus Features’ Papal mystery-thriller from Edward Berger set within the Vatican, has 14, including best film, director, and leading actor for Ralph Fiennes. Could this be a race where the two are duking it out in the end?
Not with Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” Sean Baker’s “Anora” and Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked” still very much in the fight. Along with “Emilia” and “Conclave,” any five of these movies can win best picture.
Pablo Larrain’s “Maria” and Pedro Almodovar’s “The Room Next Door” took the most significant blows from the international voting bloc, as both were completely shut out from the longlists. In addition, RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” only managed a single mention for adapted screenplay. Noteworthy, “American Fiction” (2023) also nabbed a single mention from the longlist for adapted, which it eventually was nominated and won, leading its way to its Oscar victory. Ergo, it’s never over until the ballots are officially in.
Next on the docket is the Golden Globes this weekend, followed by the SAG Awards nominations and the Critics Choice weighing in on the year.
Category updates are below, and ranking charts are also being overhauled. Where do you think the race stands?
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
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Director
Image Credit: Philippe Antonello/Focus Features ©2024 All Rights Reserved.
Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Jon M. Chu
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Brady Corbet ***
“The Brutalist” (A24) -
Actor
Image Credit: A24
Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Hugh Grant
“Heretic” (A24) -
Actress
Image Credit: Mubi
Cynthia Erivo ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore
“The Substance” (Mubi) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan
Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Col
Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Margaret Qualley
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payap Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Searchlight
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox -
Animated Feature
“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) *** -
Production Design
Image Credit: Niko Tavernise
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Cinematography
Image Credit: A24
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios) -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy of Orion Pictures
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: "Waltzing With Brando" (Courtesy of Torino Film Festival)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
“Waltzing with Brando” (Filmin’Tahiti)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Sound
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Original Score
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) -
Original Song
Image Credit: Sam Emerson
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) -
International Feature
Image Credit: Helen Sloan
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
“Vermiglio” from Italy (Janus Films) -
Animated Short
Image Credit: Origami
“Au Revoir Mon Monde” (Ecole MoPA) ***
“In the Shadow of the Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Maybe Elephants” (National Film Board of Canada)
“Origami” (Mont Blanc Entertainment)
“The Wild-Tempered Clavier” (SND Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Documentary Short
“Chasing Roo” (Spin Film)
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World” (Netflix)
“Once upon a Time in Ukraine” (Earle Mack Productions)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix)
“A Swim Lesson” (Le Train Train) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Live Action Short
“Anuja” (Graves Films)
“Dovecote” (LEAF Entertainment) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (OAK Motion Pictures)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Antitalent Produkcija)
“Paris 70” (Astronauta Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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More Information (All Categories)
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The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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