Past wars loom over Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon

The Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon that began overnight brings Israel's multi-front war into a new and dangerous phase after a year of war in Gaza following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

Why it matters: While the Biden administration doesn't oppose the Israeli operation, U.S. officials fear history could repeat itself. Twice before — first in 1982, and again in 2006 — Israel's invasion of its northern neighbor has escalated into a far wider, deadlier and more protracted conflict than Israeli officials anticipated.

• The most dramatic possible consequence of a ground invasion would be if it convinces Iran to change course and get directly involved to save the militia it has built for decades.
• But there's another scenario U.S. officials have been warning about for months: pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen could come to Hezbollah's help and either send their fighters to Lebanon or open another front through Syria.

Driving the news: Israeli troops raided southern Lebanon on Monday almost a year after Hezbollah began firing rockets toward Israel on Oct. 8 in solidarity with the Palestinians.

• A senior Israeli official said the ground operation is not aimed at occupying southern Lebanon but at destroying Hezbollah outposts, tunnels, launchpads and other military infrastructure in villages close to the border.
• The official said the ground operation started in a limited area on the eastern part of the border and will gradually continue to other sections. The idea is to create a "security perimeter" on the Lebanese side of the border that only the Lebanese military or UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will be able to enter.
• "We have no intention of drowning in the Lebanese mud. We will go in and go out at the end. This is a tactical operation that is limited in time and scope," the official said.

The big picture: For months, the skirmishes on the Israel-Lebanon border simmered below the threshold of a war. But two weeks ago Israel decided to escalate with a series of attacks that killed more than 1,000 people and dealt Hezbollah its biggest blow in years.

• It started with clandestine attacks that remotely detonated pagers and walkie-talkies. They left thousands of Hezbollah members killed or wounded, compromised the militia's internal communication systems and created unprecedented paranoia in its ranks.
• Israel then launched unprecedented air strikes that destroyed large parts of Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenals and killed many of its senior and mid-level commanders.
• The attacks reached their height with the assassination of Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah in his bunker in Beirut on Friday.

Zoom in: Israel's stated goal is to get tens of thousands of displaced Israelis back to their homes along the border without the fear of an attack by Hezbollah that is similar to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

• Israeli officials also say they see the current moment as an opportunity to significantly degrade and weaken Hezbollah and its ability to threaten Israel militarily in the coming years.
• Israel wants to restore its ability to deter further attacks, which it lost after the security lapses surrounding Oct. 7 came to light.

Between the lines: Israel prepared for a confrontation with Hezbollah for 18 years, but many in Israel's defense establishment say they are surprised by how effective their attacks have been so far.

• Israeli officials told Axios that Hezbollah is in disarray with its remaining leadership hiding and its troops with low morale.
• But what seems like a successful military operation can change if the focus switches from targeted airstrikes to a ground operation where IDF soldiers have to face Hezbollah's trained and equipped militants on their "home turf."
• In that scenario, Israeli casualties would likely increase and the scope and time of the operation could stretch beyond the original plan.

Behind the scenes: U.S. officials told Axios the White House and the Pentagon realized their influence on Israeli decision making regarding the war in Lebanon is limited.

• After telling the Israelis for weeks to avoid a ground invasion, in recent days the White House decided to focus on trying to minimize it as much as possible, officials said.
• "We understood it is happening but we're at a place of peace with the Israeli decision and plan," a U.S. official said.

Israeli officials told Axios they made clear to the White House and the Pentagon they are not planning a major invasion.

• But the White House told the Israelis it is concerned that what starts as a time- and geographically-limited operation will eventually slide into something larger and longer term, a source with direct knowledge said.
• "Of course, we know that mission creep can be a risk and we will keep discussing that with the Israelis," a National Security Council spokesperson said.

Yes, but: The Biden administration, including senior officials, is not ruling out that the growing military pressure Israel is putting on Hezbollah might yield a diplomatic solution that would not only include a ceasefire, but would weaken Hezbollah's negative influence in Lebanon and the region.

• "The feeling inside the administration is a mix of perturbed and intrigued," one U.S. official told Axios.
• "On the one hand, the Israelis really are playing with fire here. But on the other hand, what if it works?"