Payrolls increased 227,000 in November, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%

Job creation in November rebounded from a near-standstill the prior month as the effects of a significant labor strike and violent storms in the Southeast receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared to an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000.

The unemployment rate, however, edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The unemployment rate rose as the labor force participation rate edged lower and the labor force itself declined. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged higher to 7.8%.

Job gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000) and government (33,000), sectors that have consistently led payroll growth for the past few years.

At the same time, retail trade saw a decline of 28,000 heading into the holiday season. With Thanksgiving coming later than usual this year, some stores may have held off hiring.

Worker pay continued to rise, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% from a month ago and 4% on a 12-month basis. Both numbers were 0.1 percentage point above expectations.

Stock market futures edged higher after the report while Treasury yields were lower.

The report comes with questions over the state of the labor market and how that will impact Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

Traders accelerated their bets on a rate cut following the payrolls release, with market-implied odds rising above 88% for a quarter percentage point reduction. when central bank policymakers make their next decision on Dec. 18.

Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the generally strong state of the economy affords him and his colleagues the ability to be patient when making interest rate decisions. Other officials have said they see additional interest rate cuts as being likely but subject to changes in the economic data.

While inflation is well off the boil from its 40-year high in mid-2022, recent months have shown prices drifting up. At the same time, the October jobs report and various other reports have pointed to a labor market that is still growing but slowing.

The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, painted a similar picture as the establishment survey that provides the headline payrolls count.

According to the BLS, household employment rose by 174,000 on the month even as the labor force contracted by 193,000. The labor force participation rate, which measures the share of the working-age population either at work or looking for a job, declined to 62.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point.

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