By Breitbart News Network | Created at 2026-08-05 03:45:52 | Updated at 2026-08-05 21:20:19
1 day ago
Polling trends confirm Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico has topped out Democrat support and still cannot reach a winning margin in the state’s 2026 election.
As Democrats continue to hype Talarico, whose comments about loving trans kids and God being nonbinary place him out of step with overwhelming majorities of voters, the trendlines of the race are unmistakable.
Two recent surveys from Wedgewood Polls and Texas Southern University bear this out.
Both polls indicate Talarico has maxed out the Democrat coalition in the state while Attorney General Ken Paxton works to bring traditional Republican voters into his camp. The polls both give Talarico a nominal +2 advantage, 48 percent to 46 percent in Wedgewood and 47 percent to 45 percent in Texas Southern.
However, the remaining uncommitted votes center on right-leaning voters who traditionally vote Republican.
“Talarico is not winning meaningful crossover support from 2024 Trump voters; his lead instead rests on near-total consolidation of 2024 Kamala Harris voters,” Wedgewood confirms, noting Paxton had consolidated 85 percent of Republican voters, and 9 percent of those who backed President Trump in 2024 were undecided.
In 2024, President Trump defeated Harris by 14 percent in the state, a margin of more than 1.5 million voters.
The second poll, by Texas Southern University, finds the same dynamic.
“Virtually all Democrats (97 percent) intend to vote for Talarico, with 1 percent intending to vote for Paxton and 2 percent undecided. In contrast, only 85 percent of Republicans intend to vote for Paxton today,” according to the pollster.
The contest for governor is instructive on where the race is likely to land closer to Election Day.
Longtime Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leads challenger Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 6 points in both polls, 50 percent to 44 percent in Wedgewood and 49 percent to 43 percent in Texas Southern.
Both Abbott and Hinojosa have 90+ percent consolidation of Republican and Democrat voters, respectively.
Additionally, Paxton and Abbott posted near-identical margins in 2022, the last time both were on the same ballot.
In that year’s contest for governor, Abbott defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke 55 percent to 44 percent while Paxton prevailed in the Attorney General contest 53 percent to 43 percent over Democrat former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza.
