By Daily Mail (U.S.) | Created at 2024-10-24 19:29:53 | Updated at 2024-10-24 21:13:39
1 hour ago
A trader who wagered more than $45 million on Donald Trump winning next month's US presidential election over Kamala Harris has been identified as a French national amid rampant speculation about the mystery tycoon.
Polymarket, which does not permit trades from US-based users, determined the person behind four large accounts placing massive bets on the former president also has a background in finance.
The company's investigation finding puts to rest speculation that Trump-backing Tesla billionaire Elon Musk or another tech maven was behind the bets, possibly using shadow accounts outside the US, or that Trump had placed them himself for publicity.
It also comes amid mounting interest in online prediction markets, and a new revelation that a trader placed a massive $424,800 bet on a Trump win this week, via Kalshi, a platform that allows US-based users.
A Polymarket spokesperson said their probe revealed that the French big spender, also known as a 'whale' in betting circles, was simply 'taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.'
Polymarket says the mystery trader behind $45 million worth of bets on Donald Trump is a French national
Polymarket's presidential election market has increasingly favored Trump over Harris in recent weeks.
'Our investigation to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market,' said the spokesperson.
'This user has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.'
The accounts, the largest of which goes by the username Fredi9999, have collectively spent millions of dollars in markets that favor Republican victories on November 5.
Online sleuths had previously assessed that the accounts were run by a single person, with the intention of skewing Trump's odds to support his chances.
Some claimed the bettor was Musk or the YouTuber, boxer and technology investor Jake Paul.
Others, however, noted that online comments from Fredi9999 and the other handles indicated a French speaker.
Polymarket said it was conducting fresh checks to verify that users of its platform, especially the big bettors, were based outside the US.
Users on Thursday continued placing bets on Polymarket and other platforms, including Kalshi and Interactive brokers, which both allow trades from within the US.
The online predictions market Kalshi posted late on Wednesday: 'WOW: Someone just bet $424,800 on Trump winning.'
That wager nudged the site's election prediction market firmly in Trump's favor.
The Republican is currently favored to win on November 5 with 58 percent of wagering, against Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris' 42 percent - a far greater gap than the coin-toss predictions of most national voter polls.
Kalshi and other prediction platforms put Trump far ahead of Harris, even though opinion polls present the race as a statistical dead heat.
Technology pioneer Elon Musk was frequently flagged as the mystery MAGA online gambler.
Kalshi users have already put more than $60 million on the outcome of the presidential election.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says his online prediction market is more accurate than opinion polls.
The big bets for Trump, and his lead in the markets, also raise questions about whether prediction markets are better than opinion polls at forecasting the outcome of the election.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, Musk and others say the betting markets are more accurate.
'People don't lie with money,' Mansour recently told Fortune magazine.
Musk said the markets are 'more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.'
The new systems give traders, gamblers, and politics buffs a way to place bets in an election — something that's otherwise heavily restricted by law.
Platforms such as Kalshi and Interactive Brokers work around these rules, by offering contracts that expire on a set date, which function similarly to futures trading and other types of derivatives.
Users can buy a contract on a Trump win, which currently cost 59 cents each, or on a Harris victory at 41 cents.
If their candidate wins and is sworn into office early next year, they get a $1 payout for each contract. If not, they get nothing.
The system became possible thanks to a federal appeals court ruling earlier this month that Kalshi could list its controversial contracts.
