By Free Republic | Created at 2024-10-31 20:08:38 | Updated at 2024-11-07 00:35:47
6 days ago
Polymarket’s $2.7B Trump vs. Harris bets raise manipulation concerns
Fox7 Austin ^ | 10/31/2024 | Austin Williams
Posted on 10/31/2024 12:53:54 PM PDT by thegagline
As Election Day approaches, the prediction market Polymarket has drawn attention with its $2.7 billion betting pool on the 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Currently, Polymarket’s odds show Trump with a 66% chance of victory.
However, a recent analysis from blockchain experts suggests nearly one-third of this activity may be due to wash trading, casting doubt on the platform’s reliability as a predictive tool.
Possible evidence of artificial trading on Polymarket Blockchain research firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, known for digital market security and data analysis, recently reported findings that question Polymarket’s reported $2.7 billion in transaction volume. According to a Fortune report, the firms estimate actual volume at $1.75 billion, attributing the discrepancy to wash trading—a practice where the same party repeatedly buys and sells assets to inflate activity.
This artificial boost in volume, particularly in Trump’s favor, raises questions about whether the reported odds reflect genuine market sentiment or have been skewed by manipulation. *** Meanwhile, some experts argue that betting markets could influence election outcomes by shaping voter beliefs and enthusiasm. Barnard College economics professor Rajiv Sethi, who studies prediction markets, told NPR, inflated odds for one candidate could impact factors like fundraising, volunteer efforts, and overall voter morale.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has recently voiced opposition, proposing legislation to ban election betting.
Merkley argues that betting on elections corrupts democratic processes, turning elections into financial markets rather than civic exercises. "Allowing election betting is a huge mistake," Merkley told NPR. "It corrupts our American elections by turning principles into pocketbooks." ***
(Excerpt) Read more at fox7austin.com ...
TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: huntbrothers; manipulation; wallstreetbets
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NPR corrupts the minds of the listeners and is an existential threat to democracy.
When I lived in Vegas, I spent a good amount of time in the Sports Book watching and wagering on harness racing while my mother hit the nickel slots. I saw many people lose their shirts while betting on the favorite or the “sure thing.” Many residents in Sun City Summerlin lost their homes and lifesavings this way.
*The most I lost in a day was $20 because that was my limit. At least the beer was “free.”
1 posted on 10/31/2024 12:53:54 PM PDT by thegagline
To: thegagline
TV executive panics that Trump winning means press has no influence: ‘Mainstream media is dead’
Fox News ^ | October 31,2024 | Joseph A. Wulfsohn , Alexa Moutevelis Fox New
Posted on 10/31/2024, 12:41:55 PM by Hojczyk
More broadly, one network executive told features writer Charlotte Klein, “It’s going to change everything” if Trump wins. The exec said it could signify the complete failure of the news industry.
“If half the country has decided that Trump is qualified to be president, that means they’re not reading any of this media, and we’ve lost this audience completely. A Trump victory means mainstream media is dead in its current form,” they said.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com …
2 posted on 10/31/2024 12:55:51 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Every Goliath has his David!)
To: thegagline
“Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has recently voiced opposition, proposing legislation to ban election betting.”
Where was he when Hillary was at 88%?
3 posted on 10/31/2024 1:01:01 PM PDT by TexasGator (FIXED! I. I I l I l l "l I l / .I lI . l I l l l I I l /l l . l l)
To: thegagline
Betting that favors Trump is subject to fraud but not the regular election. //\\\\Okie, dokie
4 posted on 10/31/2024 1:02:12 PM PDT by Raycpa
To: Grampa Dave
If Trump wins, I expect Judge Merchan to sentence Trump to prison. Also, I expect the Democrat brown shirts to riot, burn, and loot.
5 posted on 10/31/2024 1:03:03 PM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell)
To: thegagline
How much you bet Merkley would drop his objection if the Feds got a cut of the wagers?
6 posted on 10/31/2024 1:04:50 PM PDT by KingofZion
To: KingofZion
Gambling winnings are subjected to federal tax.
7 posted on 10/31/2024 1:07:18 PM PDT by thegagline (Sic semper tyrannis! Trump & Vance, 2024! (Formerly) Goldwater & Thomas Sowell)
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